Graduation turnover has created a new set of favorites, but what kind of havoc will the SAT wreak on our predictions?
DISCLAIMER: Saturday is an SAT date, and so there could be many significant runners missing from the races. So please, take all predictions with a grain of salt, as they represent the "perfect world" with everyone competing (which we know will not happen).
Boys' Invitational
Individuals to Watch
Fresh off his 15:03 at WakeMed last weekend, Bakri Abushouk (Cary NC) is looking to crack that magical 15-minute mark. Surprisingly, that is a fairly rare accomplishment at Wendy's (although it is more common at Foot Locker South); the last person to do it was Ryan Hill in 2008. Bakri will have to get there on his own, as there doesn't appear to be anybody else capable of running that fast. However, there should be a great chase pack, led by Wyatt Maxey (Providence), Andre Ivankovic (Daniel SC), and Dalton Nickel (Mount Tabor). It will be very interesting to see if any of them try to go with Bakri in the second half of the race. Behind those three, there should be a close group of runners that includes teammates of the top 3 guys: Gabriel Haughey (Daniel), Ian Milder (Mount Tabor), Abel Tecle (Cary), along with Tima Karginov (Chapel Hill) and Josh Anderson (Watauga), all of whom have broken 16 this year. Keep an eye on Chris Reeder (Chapel Hill), who went 15:51 here last year; he struggled early in the season, but showed signs of breaking out last weekend at the Greensboro Invitational. Likewise for Sam Miner, who ran 15:41 last fall but hasn't broken 16 yet this season. Also, watch out for Peter Vandenberg, who has been battling an injury this season but has a PR of 15:49.
Teams to Watch
Cary ran very well here in late August, but the middle of their lineup has struggled in two recent meets. Look for their comfort level on the faster courses (they also ran well at UNCW) to bring them out of their mini-slump and back into the thick of things. They could be pushed by two South Carolina teams, Mauldin and Daniel; the database prefers the first team, but straight times can sometimes be misleading. You can never count Chapel Hill out when it comes to the Wendy's Invitational; they won last year, and I have a suspicion we haven't seen their best yet this year. Mount Tabor is the other team that is poised to compete in a top 5 that really could go many different ways on race day. If you want a dark-horse candidate, how about Watauga, whose boys have been a little banged up but also working hard; they have the talent to crash the top-5 party here.
Virtual Meet
Girls' Invitational
Individuals to Watch
Can you say "barn-burner," kids? I knew you could! (That's a Mr. Rogers reference for all you youngsters out there; if you've never experienced his show, you should look into it.) Anyway, this race should be absolutely fierce up front, with no less than 4 (and possibly more) legit candidates to win. Interestingly, none of them has broken 18 this fall, which you can expect to change Saturday. Darby Middlebrook (Watauga NC) is the defending champ here, and her PR of 17:35 is the best in the field. Sydney Foreman (Ardrey Kell NC) was second and clocked her all-time best of 17:50 in the 2011 edition of this meet. Laura Miller (JL Mann SC) and Brooke Gordon (TC Roberson NC) have both posted upper-17 results in past seasons, and either could win with a good race. The second tier of runners should form a great chase pack, headed by Kayla Montgomery (Mount Tabor NC) and Pegah Kamrani (East Chapel Hill NC). Sooner or later, Tristin Van Ord (Chapel Hill) is going to put up something close to (or faster than) her 18:33 from last fall, and this could be the race.
Teams to Watch
The excitement should extend to the team scores, as the lowest score predicted by the virtual meet is 137 points. There are, however, a whopping NINE schools predected to score between 137 and 221 points, which means that nobody really knows what is going to happen at this meet. Wando (SC) should be considered the slight favorite coming in; they have a top-10 runner and the best 4-5 combo in the field, at least based on this season's times so far. TC Roberson grades out well enough to threaten for the team win, which would be a big confidence boost for a team on the bubble of greatness going into the postseason. Carrboro, probably one of the smallest schools in the field, nonetheless has a potent squad that will fight for some hardware, but will face tough challenges from Riverside (SC) and defending champs Ardrey Kell (NC). JL Mann, Watauga, Mount Tabor, and Chapel Hill round out the contenders, and any of them could either sneak into the top 3 or finish 9th depending on how they run.
Virtual Meet
Boys' Open
Individuals to Watch
Jack Manesiotis (Hilton Head SC) and Aaron Templeton (Hardin Valley TN) are back for another round; last year they dueled most of the race and finished only 2 seconds apart. Manesiotis has a slight edge this fall, but 8 seconds means nothing on the racetrack that is McAlpine Park. Patrick Sheehan (Lake Norman NC), Adam Bernard (Daniel Boone TN), and Michael Lantz (Blythewood SC) have all broken 16 this year, and could wage a very entertaining race for third.
Teams to Watch
Pinecrest has the best pack in the field, and has an outside shot to put four guys in the top 10; they ran well last weekend without normal #1 Chris Kelly, and should be considered the slight favorites in this race. The rest of the top 5 teams should be a parade of out-of-state squads, with Daniel Boone (TN), Hardin Valley (TN), Hilton Head (SC), and Northwestern (SC) all contenders for a top-3 finish.
Virtual Meet
Girls' Open
Individuals to Watch
There is a decent chance this race could produce a faster winning time than the Invitational, as Davie's Anna McBride recently clocked a 17:45, running all by herself, on the slightly short Southside Park course in Statesville. It will be interesting to see if Faith Lifer (Hiliton Head SC) goes with her to help push the pace, or if McBride has to pull away and push herself. Emma Mashburn and Hannah Feiten (Hardin Valley TN) look like locks for the top 5, while another pair of teammates - Bianca Bishop and Grace Sullivan of Providence (NC) - will be trying to challenge for those spots. Keep an eye on Anna McElrath (Independence), who turned some heads with a 19:17 here in August and could be poised to break 19.
Teams to Watch
With their two closely-bunched groups of runners, the Providence (NC) girls are strong favorites to win this race. The closest challenge should come from Eastside (SC), a team that also possesses solid depth; they should finish second if they can't get past the Panthers. Powered by the front two runners, Hardin Valley (TN) looks like the third-best team in the field, but who knows how the courses they've run will compare to McAlpine? Behind those three teams, which appear to be pretty spaced out from each other, there could be a very tight battle for the remaining spots in the top 5: Cary (NC), Hilton Head (SC), Lake Norman (NC), AC Reynolds (NC), Laney (NC), and Rock Hill (SC) are all very close to each other in the virtual meet.
Virtual Meet
Boys' 3A
Individuals to Watch
This could turn out to be one of the best individual races of the day, as there are five guys in the race with season bests between 16:13 and 16:17: Clifford Buck (Robinson NC), Matt Burns (Weddington NC), Tanner Cook (Abingdon VA), McCann Sheridan (Robinson NC), and Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson NC). We will get to see on Saturday how their times really stack up, and the competition could very well propel them uner 16 minutes. Definitely don't count out Tanner Glackin (Weddington NC), whose season best is 16:21, or the three sub-16:30 runners from North Lincoln, whose season bests were run here in August. We could see a 9-man lead pack deep in the race, and that would make for a very interesting finish.
Teams to Watch
Weddington looks like the favorite in this one, but they will not have an easy time of it with two solid teams behind them. Marvin Ridge and North Lincoln look like they are very evenly-matched in this race, and they should have quite a battle for second if neither of them can reach first. Charlotte Catholic should also be in the top 5 in team scoring, and then after them there could be quite a scrum: East Rowan (NC), and Bluffton (SC), are both strong enough to make the top 5, but only one can actually earn that honor. Carson (NC) would also be in the mix, but sadly they lost their top runner for the season; that they should still be a top-10 team is a testament to their depth.
Virtual Meet
Girls' 3A
Individuals to Watch
Natalie Andrejchak (Robinson NC) is the only runner in this race that has broken 19 this year, but that doesn't mean she'll be a runaway favorite. Allie Castro (North Lincoln NC) will certainly challenge for the win in a bid to lower her 18:51 PR. Margot Corcoran (Charlotte Catholic NC) and Mallary Price (Weddington NC) will either have to go with the front two, or settle for pushing each other; behind them there is a bit of a gap to the next runners. Maddie Lowe (Northwest Cabarrus NC) and twins Madison and Alex Simmons (Cuthbertson NC) have nearly identical (get it?) best times this season, so that should make the competition for the top 5 fierce.
Teams to Watch
This could develop into a great team battle between four local rivals. Marvin Ridge and Charlotte Catholic grade out almost dead even in the virtual meet, while Cuthbertson and Weddington are also very close to each other (but 30 points back from the first two). With eight teams that score under 200 in the virtual meet (including North Lincoln NC, Bluffton SC, Robinson NC, and North Buncombe NC), this race is still very much up in the air, and it will be fun to see how everything shakes out.
Virtual Meet
Graduation turnover has created a new set of favorites, but what kind of havoc will the SAT wreak on our predictions?
DISCLAIMER: Saturday is an SAT date, and so there could be many significant runners missing from the races. So please, take all predictions with a grain of salt, as they represent the "perfect world" with everyone competing (which we know will not happen).