A Tale of Locks and Battles: 1A/2A State Meet Preview

In the end, can Cummings' girls and North Brunswick's boys defend their team titles? The stats say yes, but the meet is always more complex than that.

In the 1A/2A classification, especially during the indoor season, there can be a wide difference in competitiveness from event to event. On the one hand, a super-talented athlete can spring up anywhere, and this classification has its share. On the other hand, there are fewer of those state- or national-caliber athletes overall in this meet, due to the smaller populations of the schools. In many cases at this level, the events without the stars are the most competitive. An interesting dichotomy thus develops: some of the events are "locks" - they have heavy favorites that will be very difficult to beat - and the others are wide-open battles. The locks are easier to preview and have a higher profile, but the battles are more interesting to watch - and they often play a big role in the team title.

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Sprints & Hurdles | Distance Races | Field Events | Relay Races | Team Scoring

Sprints & Hurdles

If Kayla Moore (Cummings) is healthy, she will dominate the hurdles - but she didn't race last weekend at the David Oliver Classic. Hopefully that was a precaution, making sure she was ready for the state meet. Behind her, Kylie Polsgrove (Avery) could be the only thing preventing a 1-2-3 sweep by Cummings, as Kelsia Moore and Lashonda Tate are seeded 2nd and 4th. Elliott Graves (Reidsville) has run 7.58 in the 55 Hurdles, and the next-fastest competitor comes in at 7.86 - a difference of 0.28 which is huge in a race so short. In the boys' 55 Dash, don't make the mistake of letting Juwan Crowder's time blend in with the other guys. The Forestview senior is healthy this year, and his 6.44 is FAT, not a converted hand time. When in doubt, go with the FAT guy in the 55! Although Crowder is a virtual lock, there could be a great battle behind him - or at least, nobody knows what will happen when 4 of the top 5 and 11 of the top 13 guys have hand times. Hana O'Brien (Polk County) will be competing as the lone amputee athlete in the 55 Dash, and you can't get more of a lock than that, but she does have a challenge: if she doesn't break the entry standard during the race, then she doesn't score. Caleb Albrecht (Franklin) has a commanding top seed in the 500, but his only race in that event this winter are indoors, and he is also seeded high in the 1000. It will be interesting to see which race he decides to focus on, and then to see how much the indoor track affects his 500 time if he chooses to race it. Finally, don't let her seed time fool you: Shakai Ward (Elkin) is a stud, and she will very likely defend her title in the 300. There could be an intense race for second and third, though, as the 2-5 seeds are only separated by a total of 0.28 seconds.

Tia Glover (St. Paul's) is a bit of a puzzle - she won the 100 at the 2013 2A East Regional with a 12.31, but has been inconsistent ever since. Clearly she has potential, but her two most recent races were not suggestive of a breakout performance. If she runs well, though, she will give top seed Deonica Reid (W-S Prep) some problems. In the 500, the top 3 seeds are separated by 0.7 seconds, but there is a hitch: depending on the pace of the meet, Kylie Polsgrove (Avery) may have a hard choice to make between this event and the high jump. The boys' 300 should be a barn-burner of a race, with Brandon Massey (Parkwood) and Crowder both being legit up front. They are followed in the seeding by a super-competitive group that features 10 guys between 36.49 and 36.81. When in doubt, go with the FAT guys! In this case, that would mean Derrick Puryear (T,W, Andrews) and Graves.

Distance Races

Perhaps the biggest lock of the weekend, let alone the Friday session: Malia Ellington (Community School of Davidson, above) is looking to win all three distance races for the second consecutive year. My guess is that she will hold back a bit in the 1600, where she already has the US #4 time this season, and really try to crank out a big 1000 time to move up in the state rankings there. It will help that the spacing will be better this year - recall that low numbers in the inaugural 1A/2A meet caused her to have less than 20 minutes rest between races. Behind Ellington, though, there could be some interesting races: Shawnda Martin (Robbinsville) vs. Kaitlin Stone (West Stokes) in the 3200, Stone vs. Alex Rodman (First Flight) in the 1600. Elijah Inuwa (Central Academy of Technology) is also a big favorite in the 1600 and 1000, although he will likely get a challenge from Blanton Gillespie (Shelby) in the first race.

For fans of distance races, the boys' 3200 is the one to watch. Zach Boone (Mitchell) has to be the favorite, but after some time off early in the season he hasn't been as dominant in this classification as he has been in the past. Nicholas Walker (NCSSM), Gillespie, and Corbin Boyles (Maiden) should all be able to stay in the lead pack for at least the majority of the race, and give themselves a chance to compete.

Field Events

Kylie Polsgrove (Avery) appears to be a lock to win the girls' high jump when you check the performance list, but that's because Ashley Parker (Draughn) just hasn't jumped her best this winter. Parker has cleared 5' 6" in past seasons, and she is capable of giving Polsgrove trouble. The same could be said of Jayhlen Washington (North Brunswick) in the long jump; with his mark of 22' 10" he seems like a lock, but it was an outdoor mark, and that always raises the possibility of wind-aiding. If he doesn't break 22 feet, he will have up to 4 contenders right on his heels. In the same fashion, Samantha Layko (Croatan) comes in with a 2-foot advantage in the shot put seeding, but that's deceptive: her PR is almost identical to Northside's Hunter Halford, and the two are quite familiar foes. Laith Nickell (North Stokes, above) is the defending champion in the pole vault and is a full foot better this year, so he might be the closest thing to a lock in this event group.

On the other hand, there is no clear favorite in the boys' high jump, with 5 guys seeded between 6' 0" and 6' 2", so that event is anyone's to win after they get past 5' 10". Kayla Moore (Cummings) has been battling a nagging injury, and that could leave her battling for position in the horizontal jumps. Her teammate Kelsia Moore is also a contender in both jumps, as are two Winston-Salem athletes: Deonica Reid (W-S Prep) in the long jump and Lyric Mack (Atkins) in the triple. The best battle of the meet (at least on the infield) could be in the boys' shot put, where Scott Goldman (Dixon) has the top seed, but Samson Bradsher (Hobbton) and Derrick Wheeler (North Brunswick) are less than a foot behind. Finally, Bryce Floyd (South Lenoir) has a state title to defend in the wheelchair shot put, and he has to out-throw three opponents to get that done. Veteran Dylan Pinder (North Johnston) looks like the strongest challenger, as he has improved from 10' 2" last year to 11' 10.5" this time around.

Relays

Polk County owns the top seed in both 4x800's, but they have very different chances of winning. The boys' team is dominant at this level and is ranked in the top 10 in the state overall, whereas the girls will have to fight off Community School of Davidson (and anchor Malia Ellington) to take home the gold medals. Can Cummings' girls win the 4x200 without Kayla Moore? Maybe, but why worry when the worst they can score (assuming no DQ) is 6 points? Expect them to pull more than one top girl off the relay and take the points while saving energy.

At first glance the boys' 4x200 looks like an Eastern affair, with the top 4 teams and 6 of the 8 overall being from east of Raleigh. But no event is more affected by running indoors rather than outdoors, and North Brunswick made a smart move by coming to experience the indoor track once this season - Kinston is the only other team from the East to do so. Expect T.W. Andrews to greatly exceed their entry time in what COULD be an amazing race, if the inexperienced outdoor teams don't cause a pile-up at some point.

Team Scoring

According to the virtual meet, the girls' team scores are also locks: Cummings is predicted to win, Community School of Davidson to finish second, and nobody else is even close. That could swing dramatically if Kayla Moore isn't able to compete, though, so stay tuned!

North Brunswick's boys probably won't score the 79 points the virtual meet predicts for them, but they probably will defend their title. Behind the Scorpions (great mascot), there should be an intense battle for second place between Polk County, North Pitt, Franklinton, and Franklin, and perhaps even a few other teams.