Breaking Down the Early-Season Invitationals

If there was a poll for which teams were the best in the state so far this season, would Chris Kelly's Pinecrest squad be #1?

 

It's too early in the season to really draw any major conclusions, as some of the key contenders haven't even put forth a top-flight 5K effort yet.  We're not completely without analytical tools, though, as there are several ways besides full rankings for us to search for some meaning among the major results so far.  Here are some of thing we've learned so far along with some lingering questions, and you can look below for the data that supports both.

  • Pinecrest has been the most impressive team so far this year, for both boys and girls (even though the girls are not the top-ranked team, they are way better than predicted).  Will that translate to hillier courses and stiffer competition?

  • Despite the faster times at the top, the three major invitationals at the start of the season are actually slightly slower overall.  That could be due to larger numbers of beginning runners participating, though.

  • It seems like the Providence Invitational and the Jungle Run make a pretty fair comparison: the boys who ran both went slightly faster at South View, but the girls ran a bit slower there.

 

Top 10 Girls Teams of the Season So Far (Full Rankings)

(Counting all 5K races submitted this fall)

1 Green Hope (NC) 166
  1) Elly Henes   19:18.00 18
  2) Theresa Enright   19:23.00 22
  3) Katie Tomasi   19:53.00 33
  4) Savannah Lips   20:07.00 46
  5) Kelly Fitzgerald   20:07.00 47
  Average Time: 19:45.60 Total Time: 1:38:48.00 1-5 Split: 49.00
  6) Sheridan Wood   20:10.00 51
  7) Reilly Caldwell   20:10.00 52
2 Cardinal Gibbons (NC) 230
  1) Mary Grace Doggett   18:32.43 5
  2) Sophie Ebihara   18:40.57 6
  3) Rachel Bartolomeo   19:17.18 16
  4) Megan Vaughn   20:55.08 101
  5) Laura Hart   20:55.56 102
  Average Time: 19:40.16 Total Time: 1:38:20.82 1-5 Split: 2:23.13
  6) Nicole Davis   21:25.07 142
  7) Annie Pierce   21:40.26 167
3 Pinecrest (NC) 278
  1) Jaleigh Jensen   19:59.35 35
  2) Katie Hayes   20:08.34 50
  3) Mulloy Manning   20:13.40 56
  4) Rachel Von Cannon   20:17.25 60
  5) Zia Matti   20:36.22 77
  Average Time: 20:14.91 Total Time: 1:41:14.56 1-5 Split: 36.87
  6) Jordan Edmondson   20:45.58 84
  7) Sarah Klug   21:10.71 127
4 Providence (NC) 278
  1) Grace Sullivan   18:14.00 2
  2) Kayla Glova   18:55.00 8
  3) Helen Griffith   20:06.00 44
  4) Meghan Glova   20:55.00 100
  5) Amelia Lennard   21:07.00 124
  Average Time: 19:51.40 Total Time: 1:39:17.00 1-5 Split: 2:53.00
  6) Alexa Vitale   21:45.00 174
  7) Lauren Adamson   21:52.00 188
5 Myers Park (NC) 343
  1) Mary Prouty   19:17.54 17
  2) Abby Watkins   19:45.73 31
  3) Story Gourley   20:33.40 74
  4) Julia King   20:56.03 105
  5) Madeline Frank   21:03.98 116
  Average Time: 20:19.34 Total Time: 1:41:36.68 1-5 Split: 1:46.44
  6) Rachel DeMay   21:13.03 129
  7) Meg Greene   21:25.34 143
6 Marvin Ridge (NC) 368
  1) Alexa King   19:32.00 25
  2) Jennae Jacob   20:16.00 59
  3) Melanie Hussey   20:38.00 78
  4) Leah Meissner   20:55.00 99
  5) Kylie Hennessey   20:57.00 107
  Average Time: 20:27.60 Total Time: 1:42:18.00 1-5 Split: 1:25.00
  6) Graziana Mangione   21:35.00 159
  7) Bonnie Lauman   22:32.00 271
7 Millbrook (NC) 387
  1) Emily Pettis   19:12.01 14
  2) Ashley Starnes   20:08.22 49
  3) Kaylie Hinckley   20:48.98 87
  4) Carolyn Rapp   21:03.17 115
  5) Jennifer Haines   21:05.83 122
  Average Time: 20:27.64 Total Time: 1:42:18.21 1-5 Split: 1:53.82
  6) Molly Spearo   21:46.06 177
  7) Parker Burns   21:50.88 185
8 Mount Tabor (NC) 422
  1) Kayla Montgomery   18:04.00 1
  2) Kataryna ONeil   20:01.00 38
  3) Rhiannon Farney   20:26.00 68
  4) Megan Elmore   20:48.00 86
  5) Emily Hester   22:12.00 229
  Average Time: 20:18.20 Total Time: 1:41:31.00 1-5 Split: 4:08.00
  6) Morgan Mcbride   22:17.00 238
  7) Susie Oliver   22:30.00 265
9 Ardrey Kell (NC) 431
  1) Sydney Foreman   18:19.00 3
  2) Kiley Aymor   20:06.00 45
  3) Annie Britt   20:40.00 81
  4) Shelby Foreman   21:01.00 113
  5) Lindsey Wheeler   21:52.00 189
  Average Time: 20:23.60 Total Time: 1:41:58.00 1-5 Split: 3:33.00
  6) Rachel Goode   21:59.00 210
  7) Katherine Bizon   22:05.00 221
10 Sanderson (NC) 497
  1) Catherine Allen   20:19.00 63
  2) Olivia Bane   20:29.00 70
  3) Elizabeth McSoley   20:33.48 75
  4) Holly Livingston   21:08.00 125
  5) Erin Mares   21:38.65 164
  Average Time: 20:49.63 Total Time: 1:44:08.13 1-5 Split: 1:19.65
  6) Kelsey Sheehan   21:53.25 194
  7) Elizabeth Coletti   22:36.84 282

 

Top 10 Boys Teams of the Season So Far (Full Rankings)

(Counting all 5K races submitted this fall)

1 Pinecrest (NC) 167
  1) Chris Kelly   15:56.06 13
  2) Robert Anderson   16:15.57 25
  3) Matt Harmody   16:17.94 26
  4) Brandon Elliott   16:38.16 47
  5) Javier Bustos   16:46.21 56
  Average Time: 16:22.79 Total Time: 1:21:53.94 1-5 Split: 50.15
  6) Neil Clark   17:17.80 120
  7) Tommy Delaunay   17:55.39 230
2 Mount Tabor (NC) 188
  1) Ian Milder   15:09.00 1
  2) Brad Walter   16:10.00 20
  3) Nathan Smith   16:39.00 49
  4) Phillip Jolly   16:47.00 58
  5) Michael Madden   16:49.00 60
  Average Time: 16:18.80 Total Time: 1:21:34.00 1-5 Split: 1:40.00
  6) Kenny Kneisel   17:17.00 117
  7) Ryan Armstrong   17:28.00 146
3 South View (NC) 208
  1) Michael Staples   16:13.32 23
  2) Titus Grant   16:20.01 29
  3) Javier Alejandro   16:25.01 32
  4) Joseph Moody   16:36.22 44
  5) Austin Crawford   17:00.23 80
  Average Time: 16:30.96 Total Time: 1:22:34.79 1-5 Split: 46.91
  6) Rontrell Felton   17:32.07 153
  7) Monquell LeSane   18:36.22 352
4 Green Hope (NC) 279
  1) Tom Nobles   16:00.00 16
  2) Brad Pehr   16:49.00 61
  3) William Jordan   16:53.00 65
  4) Jonathan Bakley   16:55.00 67
  5) Henry Pehr   16:56.00 70
  Average Time: 16:42.60 Total Time: 1:23:33.00 1-5 Split: 56.00
  6) Carter Lux   17:14.00 109
  7) Michael Kolor   17:40.00 179
5 R.J. Reynolds (NC) 296
  1) Dustin Sneed   16:08.46 19
  2) Andrew Ciaccia   16:25.04 33
  3) Nick Ciaccia   16:33.03 39
  4) Joe Wilson   16:40.87 51
  5) Spencer Kirk   17:32.08 154
  Average Time: 16:39.90 Total Time: 1:23:19.48 1-5 Split: 1:23.62
  6) Todd Holbrook   18:32.64 341
  7) Robert Paynter   18:33.01 344
6 North Lincoln (NC) 342
  1) Andrew Fea   15:43.00 6
  2) Ryan Shannon   15:46.00 8
  3) Lee Johnson   17:05.00 93
  4) Riley Jones   17:16.00 114
  5) Zach Wesson   17:18.00 121
  Average Time: 16:37.60 Total Time: 1:23:08.00 1-5 Split: 1:35.00
  6) Austin Hilburn   17:25.00 139
  7) Tanner Doss   18:02.00 254
7 Millbrook (NC) 345
  1) Drew Navarro   16:06.24 18
  2) Alex Boseman   16:22.95 31
  3) Nick Haven   16:43.76 52
  4) Tyler Trocinski   17:09.71 101
  5) Trevor Davis   17:26.73 143
  Average Time: 16:45.88 Total Time: 1:23:49.39 1-5 Split: 1:20.49
  6) Delonte Nelson   17:42.11 191
  7) Matt LaGanke   17:55.65 231
8 Weddington High School (NC) 375
  1) Ryan Hobbs   16:14.00 24
  2) Matthew Conner   16:31.00 37
  3) Colton Jordan   17:04.00 89
  4) Mitchell Resor   17:10.00 102
  5) Brandon Dalla Rosa   17:18.00 123
  Average Time: 16:51.40 Total Time: 1:24:17.00 1-5 Split: 1:04.00
  6) Jackson Bivens   17:43.00 194
  7) Eddie Kalaf   18:00.00 246
9 Cardinal Gibbons (NC) 384
  1) David Edwards   16:44.42 53
  2) Jt Klimek   16:46.59 57
  3) Cody Nagy   16:56.56 72
  4) Jake Zawada   17:02.33 87
  5) Connor Lane   17:16.05 115
  Average Time: 16:57.19 Total Time: 1:24:45.95 1-5 Split: 31.63
  6) Connor Peeples   17:29.67 150
  7) Ethen Lund   17:59.17 244
10 Jordan (NC) 404
  1) Nikolaus Kreiling   15:44.00 7
  2) Daniel Beamer   15:59.00 15
  3) Matthew Blivin   16:34.85 41
  4) Greyson Meyer   17:35.00 164
  5) Austin Rooks   17:39.12 177
  Average Time: 16:42.39 Total Time: 1:23:31.97 1-5 Split: 1:55.12
  6) Mitchell Slentz   17:42.09 190
  7) Romel Garcia   17:52.00 220

 

Comparing 2013 Jungle Run to 2013 Providence Invitational: Boys  |  Girls

 

Comparing 2013 Jungle Run to 2012 Jungle Run: Boys  |  Girls

 

Comparing 2013 Providence Invitational to 2012 Providence Invitational: Boys  |  Girls

 

Comparing 2013 WNC Carnival to 2012 WNC Carnival: Boys  |  Girls