Boys XC Preseason Rankings: #7

<p> <span style="font-size: 13.63636302947998px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 boys teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

The Pinecrest Patriots have a strong program, but may only have one more season before heavy graduation losses take their toll.

 

	Pinecrest (NC)
	1) Robert Anderson		15:41.74	9
	2) Brandon Elliott		16:18.21	55
	3) Tommy Delaunay		16:25.38	79
	4) Neil Clark		16:46.65	135
	5) Chris Leonard		17:21.10	270
	Average Time: 16:30.62 Total Time: 1:22:33.08 1-5 Split: 1:39.36
	6) Sam Shutt		17:32.40	320
	7) McKail Boynton		17:33.10	325

There are two factors strongly in favor of this year's Pinecrest team.  First, they had a tremendous spring season in terms of team depth in the 3200, outranking all but one team in the state with a 10:03 5-man average.  Second, the Patriots' recent history of year-to-year improvement is excellent, indicating that the team has bought into a culture of year-round work (which can be passed down from year to year).  Robert Anderson may be poised to follow in the footsteps of (or even exceed) graduated #1 runner Chris Kelly, and the returning top 4 is very strong.  That brings us to the one factor not in this team's favor: the big gap before the returning 5-7 runners.  On the other hand, Pinecrest did graduate 3 of their top 5 from the team that finished 5th in the 4A state meet last year, so to be projected 5th by the database for the upcoming season is a testament to the program's strength.  If the depth problem is addressed through summer training, this team can challenge for the title in an increasingly strong 4A East region, and repeat as a top-5 team at the state meet.  The future is now: 4 of the projected top 7 for 2014 are seniors, and you can't lose 7 to graduation over 2 years without taking at least a small step back (unless your program's depth is amazing).

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 8th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 13th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 2nd

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 8.322 (11th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 11.667 (6th)