Boys XC Preseason Rankings: #19

<p> <span style="font-size: 13.63636302947998px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 boys teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

East Chapel Hill is in transition between the class of 2014 and the class of 2016, but could still be good enough to make states this fall.

 

	East Chapel Hill (NC)
	1) Ethan Ready		16:11.00	38
	2) Connor McDonald		16:20.18	62
	3) James Gildard		16:39.24	117
	4) Tucker Owens		17:18.90	257
	5) Chris Hassel		18:15.00	581
	Average Time: 16:56.86 Total Time: 1:24:44.32 1-5 Split: 2:04.00
	6) Raymond Gao		18:15.10	583
	7) Lee Franklin		18:23.70	623

East Chapel Hill's returning team from last fall shows a glaring weakness: the huge gap between their 4th runner and the 5-6-7 group.  Why are they ranked higher than teams that return more depth?  Two things stand out that indicate the 2014 Tigers will be much stronger than predicted.  First, they showed outstanding improvement and depth during track season, especially in the 1600 (with Clayton Watters looking like the best candidate to fill the gap mentioned above).  Second, the team has been showing solid improvement from year to year over the last 5 years.  The loss of Ryan Brady and two other seniors to graduation certainly doesn't help, but Ethan Ready ran 9:45 in the spring and could be ready to step into those shoes.  The returning team is junior-heavy up front and doesn't have a single senior in the top 8, so this is a transition year for East Chapel Hill.  If the Tigers can get out of the Midwest 4A, where they are projected to be 4th, that experience could be a building-block for a strong run in 2015.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 23rd

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 5th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 15th

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 7.363 (14th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 8.083 (11th)