Great Outdoor Provision Co. Preview: adidas XC Challenge

A field loaded with talent, on a major course that has run fast in recent years, could spell really great competition Saturday.

 

Meet Page

 

Updated All-Time WakeMed Marks

(via NCPrepTrack.com, and thanks to Roger Collins)

 

Girls Championship

Individuals to Watch

Darby Middlebrook (Watauga) ran 18:15 on a damp Jackson Park course earlier this season, and she should be setting the pace in this race.  Mary Grace Doggett (Cardinal Gibbons) has been running very well this season, along with teammate Sophie Ebihara.  Expect Brooke Gordon (TC Roberson) to be right in the front pack from the start, and to run faster than her current season best of 18:45.  Eliza Dekker (Durham Academy) will make her major-race debut for the season, and you should expect her to be very strong after taking the summer off from racing to focus on her training.  Kara Dickerson (Midlothian, VA) is an experienced competitor from a very strong program, and the same is true of Stephanie Aldrich (West Chester Henderson, PA).  Rebekah Greengrass (Panther Creek) turned heads with her performances as a freshman last year, and then continued to improve through track season; it will be interesting to see where she stands this fall.

 

It is definitely worth mentioning that we should get a look at the top 2 distance runners in North Carolina this weekend, Wesley Frazier and Alana Hadley.  Hadley is competing unattached in the college race on Friday night, and Frazier ran in that race last year and could also make her 5K debut for the season.  Both of these girls have national aspirations this fall, and it will be very interesting to see how they run compared to the top high school talent running on Saturday.

 

Teams to Watch

Since many states begin their competitive cross country season later than North Carolina, there isn't much data to compare the out-of-state teams to ours.  Still, it appears this could be a very close competition, with several evenly-matched teams an no clear favorite.  Midlothian (VA) and Ocean Lakes (VA) went 1-2 in the VHSL AAA championship last year, and the database says that Ocean Lakes has the slight edge based on returning talent.  You also can't count out a traditionally strong Blacksburg squad that has had a very strong start to the 2012 season.  West Chester Henderson (PA) finished third in the PIAA AAA championship last fall, and they lost a key runner to graduation, but they still have a very strong program returning.  Among North Carolina schools, Cardinal Gibbons and TC Roberson appear to be the strongest challengers to the out-of-state powers.  It will be interesting to see where three evenly-matched NC teams fall: Millbrook, Watauga, and young upstart Grimsley have all run well this season, but could have trouble cracking the top 10 against such a strong field.

 

 

VIrtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

 

Virtual Meet

(Using last year's times)

 

 

Boys Championship

Individuals to Watch

Bakri Abushouk (Cary) has one of the best times in the nation so far this fall, but he was not pushed last weekend; expect that to change on Saturday against an absolutely stacked field of individuals.  Eight of the top nine returners in the state are in this race, plus several that have improved dramatically since last fall.  Trevor Sleight (Carolina Day) will make his season debut with an intense race, but the returning state leader in both the 5K and the 3200 should be up to the challenge.  The matchup between Sleight and Abushouk should be very entertaining; give Abushouk the slight edge based on his demonstrated fitness so far this year.  Nick Link (Blacksburg) and Ben Fiedler (Asheville School) both ran under 15:40 last year, while Sam Miner (East Chapel Hill) was close.  This race is so loaded that runners in the 15:45 - 15:55 range could be in the second pack!  Wyatt Maxey (Providence), Nikolaus Kreiling (Jordan), Abel Tecle (Cary), Ben Huffman (Providence Day), Sean Willard (Midlothian, VA), and Peter Vandenberg (Watauga, if healthy) could all fall into that category, and there are many more names that could be included.  Philip Hall (Terry Sanford) is on his third race in three weekends, and hopefully fatigue won't be a factor.  

 

Teams to Watch

Once again, the team battle could be very tight, and things likely will decided by the performance of the 3-4-5 runners rather than the top individuals.  Blacksburg (VA) and Midlothian (VA) return the best talent from last year, with Blacksburg having won the VHSL AA championship.  Based on early returns from this year, the Cary boys would be the favorite, while Blacksburg grades out 5th-best.  Three North Carolina programs that have had very strong starts to the season will try to prove that they belong for the long haul: Millbrook, RJ Reynolds, and Cardinal Gibbons.  Definitely do not count out traditional powers Chapel Hill and Watauga, both of which looked a bit shaky at the WNC Carnival, but both of which probably did not rest their runners much for that race, preferring to favor training over racing early.  If you're looking for dark-horse candidates to crack the top 5, consider Asheville School (if they are brining their full squad), a team that looked very good without their top runner at the Owen Invitational Wednesday; also, the TC Roberson boys may not have shown their full strength yet.

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

 

Virtual Meet

(Using last year's times)

 

 

Girls Invitational

Individuals to Watch

Gabby Merritt (Greensboro Day) and Arden Vessie (Corinth Holders) have both run well this season, and they could push each other to faster times Saturday.  Expect Tristin Van Ord (Chapel Hill) to be right in the front of the race, and she has the ability to pull away if she is fresh.  Blake Dodge (West Carteret) could find herself leading the second pack and trying to bridge the gap to the leaders, as was the case last weekend at the Seahawk.  Expect Jennifer Stephenson (Village Christian) to improve over last weekend and put up a strong race; she has the fitness and only needs to improve her early pacing.

 

Teams to Watch

Chapel Hill has the best returning talent in the field by far, and their depth should carry the day for them.  Marvin Ridge has had a solid start to the year and could make things interesting if they run well.  Bishop McGuinness, West Carteret, Greensboro Day, and defending NCISAA champs Ravenscroft could all be in the mix for top-5 finishes.

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

 

Virtual Meet

(Using last year's times)

 

 


Boys Invitational

Individuals to Watch

Sam Williams (Bishop McGuinness) already has a PR this season (Providence Invitational) and a win under his belt (Seahawk Invitational), and he will look to add to an impressive start with another good race.  Mason Holt (Rocky Mount) is the closest challenger based on this year's times, but I've heard that Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson) will be at the meet, and could be in this race (although his school is not listed on the current race assignments.  When you look at returning times, David Bradley (Durham Academy) and Alec Lane (Marvin Ridge) both jump out as contenders, while the Oakland Mills (MD) duo of Sam Andrews and Tom Brumbaugh could be racing for top-5 spots.

 

Teams to Watch

Marvin Ridge returns strong enough talent to win the race, although they haven't posted full-effort times yet this year.  Cosby (VA) also returns solid talent, and Bishop McGuinness grades out well on both returning times and this season's marks.  Corinth Holders, Holly Springs, Oakland Mills (MD), and Science & Math could all find themselves battling for the last two spots in the top 5 if all goes according to predictions (and when does that ever happen?).

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

 

Virtual Meet

(Using last year's times)