3A Boys Preview
Teams to Watch
This is the best and most competitive team battle of the day: the top 3 teams are separated by 24 points by average times, and by only 7 points by best times. Chapel Hill has to be the slight favorite, as they are the defending champs and their senior leaders know how to bring the title home. The Tigers best Cardinal Gibbons at last weekend's mideast regional, avenging a loss at the Carolina 12 conference meet. Gibbons is deep and experienced, though, and could be considered Chapel Hill's equal coming into this race. Those two teams cannot afford to get caught up in their ongoing feud, however, as an equally-strong Weddington squad could slip past both of them for the win. After the front three teams, East Rowan has a big lead on everyone else and should finish no worse than fourth (though they will be challenged to move up). Marvin Ridge looks like the fifth-best team on paper, but will have to hold off a number of other schools to finish there.
Virtual Boys' Meet
(Using AVERAGE times from the MileSplit database, advancing teams only)
Virtual Boys' Meet
(Using BEST times from the MileSplit database, advancing teams only)
Individuals to Watch
Mitch McLeod (Chapel Hill) has a small edge coming into the race, and his win at Wendy's has to be encouraging. He will not be able to pull away on Saturday, though, as there are several challengers in very close range, all with eyes on the individual title. Weddington's Jonathan Bivens has been a revelation this season, but needs to return to early-season form if he wants to beat McLeod; admittedly, he hasn't been pushed in his last two races. Jimmy Hollingsworth (Northern Guilford) looked like a surefire title contender at the adidas Cross Country Challenge, but has struggled of late. Steven Phillips (Cardinal Gibbons) needs to stay with McLeod and Bivens to give his team the best chance to win. Cole Honeycutt (East Rowan) is a bit of an enigma, putting up big times on fast courses while seeming to prefer races where he can pull away and run by himself, which won't be the case Saturday; still, he belongs in the top 10 here and could be a top-5 runner. Each of the top 3 schools has a second runner who can run in the top 10, as well: Chris Reeder (Chapel Hill), Hunter Roark (Weddington), and Tommy Schotzinger (Cardinal Gibbons) have all been both strong and dependable for their respective teams this year. Clifford Buck (Robinson) and John Baranik (Western Alamance) could also make the stage for the all-state awards. Watch for the battle between the 3rd and 4th runners of the top teams, which should take place between 10th and 20th place; the meet could be VERY close until the 5th runner, which favors the superior depth of Chapel Hill.
3A Boys Individual Rankings
(Based on 2011 results from the MileSplit database)
3A Girls Preview
Teams to Watch
Whether you go by average times or by season bests, the same three teams rise to the top of the 3A rankings: Cardinal Gibbons, Chapel Hill, and Charlotte Catholic. Gibbons gets the nod as the favorite, especially after beating Chapel Hill in the Carolina Conference championship meet, but the Tigers are more than capable of rebounding to take the title. Those two teams clearly have the most depth, putting them in another class and making the battle for the gold trophy a likely two-team affair. Charlotte Catholic is a bit of a puzzle, and has stuggled mightliy at times this year (though the loss of one top-3 runner before the season and an injury to another will do that to any team); if they put it all together, though, they could still bring home a strong ending to a difficult season. Catholic lost at their regional to Marvin Ridge, and you definitely should not count the Mavericks out when it comes to scoring a top-3 finish. Likewise for West Carteret, which hasn't really been pushed recently in either the conference or the regional. Jay M. Robinson also got past Catholic last weekend, and they will certainly be gunning for a top-5 finish, looking to pick off any team that doesn't have its best race. That's six legitimate contenders for the top 5 spots, with intense battles for the top two and also for third place. Should make this a great race to watch!
Virtual Girls' Meet
(Using AVERAGE times from the MileSplit database, advancing teams only)
Virtual Girls' Meet
(Using BEST times from the MileSplit database, advancing teams only)
Individuals to Watch
Blake Dodge (West Carteret) is the top returner from last year's 3A state meet, and she has been strong again this year, especially in winning her regional last weekend. This certainly won't be a walkover, though, and there are at least four other girls with a real shot at the title. Tristin Van Ord (Chapel Hill) seemed to have a sub-par race at her regional, but she is a top competitior and will definitely be in the lead pack. Weddington's Mallary Price has won several meets this year, and has an ongoing duel with Natalie Andrejchak (Robinson). Andrejchak won the latest meeting between the two, but they are essentially dead-even coming into the state meet. Jentzen Jones has broken through with a few very strong races in the last month after struggling through a minor injury earlier in the year; she has the potential to be a major spoiler in this race (and her season best was at Beeson). Rachel Bartolomeo led Cardinal Gibbons in their regional, and her 18:40 clocking on a wet WakeMed course was very impressive; teammate Mary Grace Doggett will also be in the mix for the all-state team. Indy Reid-Shaw (Orange), Margot Corcoran (Catholic), and Caitlyn Colo (Marvin Ridge) could jump-start their respective teams with top-10 individual performances.