2A Boys Preview
Individuals to Watch
The first race of the day should be one of the clearest individual races, as well. A.J. Tucker (Cedar Ridge) is the clear favorite. He has the ability to run away from the rest of the field, but sometimes shows a tendency to sit in the lead pack and then take the win late. Corbin Boyles (Maiden) should be in the first chase pack, and as a freshman he has a legitimate shot at the top 5. Nick Pugh (Croatan) has been strong all year, while Justin Wilkes (East Lincoln) has run against top competition in several recent races and done well. Watch out for Jason Barber (West Stokes), whose season best came on the Beeson Park course, putting him right in the mix for a top 5 finish Saturday. North Lincoln has several boys that could contend for top-10 finishes, as German Perez, Chris Boyle, and Andrew Fea have all been top runners for their team at some point this season. If Carrboro wants to have a chance at another title, Dominic Collichio needs to run well and pull his team's close-running pack toward the front of the race.
(Based on best times from the MileSplit database)
Teams to Watch
The database says this is North Lincoln's race all the way, but things may not be quite so clear-cut (although they remain the favorite). Carrboro has run on slower courses all year, and the defending champs will not go away so easily. Cedar Ridge is peaking at the right time, having defeated Carrboro last week at their regional, and could make this a closer three-team race than originally expected. If any of those teams falter, they will have Cuthbertson breathing right down their necks and trying to take a top-3 spot away. There may be a very close group of teams looking to get into the top 10, with as many as five teams within 40 points according to the database. Who will race well on Saturday in the coldest conditions of the day?
(Using AVERAGE times for each runner this season, includes only the advancing teams.)
(Using BEST times for each runner this season, includes only the advancing teams.)
2A Girls Preview
Individuals to Watch
Grace Morken (Carrboro) is the defending champion, and she ran under 18:40 at the Jungle Run early this year; since then, Carrboro has not run on any truly quick courses, but she is definitely ahead of last year's pace. She should see a strong challenge from a runner that shares her first name, Lincolnton's Grace Turner. Jessica Wallace (First Flight) and Brenna Kate Grass (Swansboro) are both showing great fitness right now, while teammates Allie Castro and Savannah Fornshell of North Lincoln have been putting up strong races all year. Savannah, in particular, seems to come up big in the biggest races when her team needs her, so don't be surprised if she puts up a top-5 finish Saturday. Watch out for Catie Byrd (North Henderson), whose races since Wendy's have all been on more difficult courses. Allie Whitley (East Lincoln) and Laney Browder (Wilkes Central) are veteran runners that will definitely be in the mix for top-10 finishes. This race has an unusual number of strong freshmen: Wallace, Jada Blake (Lincolnton), Maysa Araba and Helen Morken (Carrboro), Arden Vessie (Corinth Holders), and Jenna Louis (Cuthbertson) all have top-20 potential.
(Based on best times from the MileSplit database)
Teams to Watch
Carrboro's girls are the clear favorite to repeat, but not so far ahead that they can feel safe. North Lincoln will be hunting them, seeking to reverse last year's team finish. Those two teams seem to be better than everyone else, so the next battle will most likely be for third place. Pisgah hasn't run any really fast courses (their best times came from Beeson a month ago), so they could out-perform their ranking Saturday (and could be in position to capitalize if one of the top two teams falters). Swansboro's best times may be slightly inflated from running on the questionable South Lenoir course, but they have a strong team nonetheless and should be in the top 5. Dark horse candidate: Smoky Mountain has run on arguably the most difficult set of courses of any team in this race, and for them Beeson Park might feel like a flat track.
(Using AVERAGE times for each runner this season, includes only the advancing teams.)
(Using BEST times for each runner this season, includes only the advancing teams.)
2A Boys Preview
Individuals to Watch
The first race of the day should be one of the clearest individual races, as well. A.J. Tucker (Cedar Ridge) is the clear favorite. He has the ability to run away from the rest of the field, but sometimes shows a tendency to sit in the lead pack and then take the win late. Corbin Boyles (Maiden) should be in the first chase pack, and as a freshman he has a legitimate shot at the top 5. Nick Pugh (Croatan) has been strong all year, while Justin Wilkes (East Lincoln) has run against top competition in several recent races and done well. Watch out for Jason Barber (West Stokes), whose season best came on the Beeson Park course, putting him right in the mix for a top 5 finish Saturday. North Lincoln has several boys that could contend for top-10 finishes, as German Perez, Chris Boyle, and Andrew Fea have all been top runners for their team at some point this season. If Carrboro wants to have a chance at another title, Dominic Collichio needs to run well and pull his team's close-running pack toward the front of the race.
(Based on best times from the MileSplit database)