3A State Meet Preview

3A Preview

 [Ed note: I suffered a sinus infection this week, and it really started to hit me when I was writing the 3A preview.  Since I coach a team in 3A that's probably not a good sign.]

The 3A race is shaping up to either be somewhat anti-climatic or entertaining.  Mooresville appears to be in the drivers seat to win a third straight title, Nash Central appears to be the team that will finish second.  After that it will probably be close: MarvinRidge, Reagan, Charlotte Catholic, Asheville, and T.C. Roberson could all be interchangeable.  The West and the Midwest are the two dominant regions and will be represented by having most of their teams finish in the top ten. 

Ryan Hill graduated and for the first time in three years we don’t know who will win the 3A individual title.  There appears to be a log jam of runners who are capable of winning the race: Steven Bollinger, Austin Jones, Joseph Newman, Zach Brantley, John Harwell, Will Bass, Isaac Presson, and Josh Cox.  The big surprise would be Steven Bollinger, who showed up on the scene at Wendy’s running a 15:39, he backed that up with a come from behind win at regionals with a 15:37.  Is he going to be the one who could win it or could it be John Harwell of Asheville?  Harwell destroyed the West regional winning by a lot, and he looks to a good pick for the individual crown.  It will probably be a close pack on the first loop and then on the second loop things will start to separate.  Look for it to be a close race for it to be a close race between Harwell and Bollinger.

Mooresville (1) Right now the uncertainty of Joseph Newman running for them is up in the air, but Mooresville won by over forty points without him at regionals.  With Newman they are a sure lock to win a third straight title in cross country and the fifth straight xc/track title in a row.  Without him it will make things more interesting, which would put the 3A race in question for the first time in a long time.  But there really doesn’t appear to be a team that can challenge Mooresville.

Asheville (2) With their top two runners, John Harwell (16:05) and Isaac Presson (16:13), they have the front runners to score some low points, but what they are going to need is for the rest of their team to deliver.  What could be a hindrance to them is a solid number five runner that position needs to improve if they want to place in the top three.

T.C. Roberson (6) T.C. Roberson does not have that runner that will be in the top 10, rather they have a consistent pack that will help them out in a meet this size.  Their top runners didn’t run anything close to their PR’s at regionals, and that could poise a problem, but they were solid in their placement.  They have a fairly young team so they could end up move up in the final rankings and get in the top five.

Lake Norman (-) Lake Norman earned the last spot in the toughest region in 3A.  They were able to be beat out three or four teams that all had a legit shot of making it to States.  They also fall under the classification of pack team, twenty seconds separated their one through five at regionals.  They might be a team that is peaking at the right time, they have improved since the beginning of the season and were able to bump off some teams that they hadn’t beaten before.

Marvin Ridge (-) The fact that this team won the Midwest region shouldn’t be a surprise, what you could say was a surprise was how well their three, four, and five ran at the regional meet.  What was expected was their triumvirate of runners, Chris Colo, Michael Colvin, and David McCuiston, to be in the top 10 of that race, but what won the race was the rest of their team running PR’s.  Now the tough part is for them to do it again.  The consistency that this team is looking for could place them as high as second place, but they can’t be satisfied with winning a region. 

Reagan (3) They have the second fastest runner in 3A, with Austin Jones who battled it out Steven Bollinger and came up just short, and then with Jack Anderson with a 16:01.  They closely mirror Asheville, with two runners in the top pack, and then relying on how the rest of their team performs.  It’s tough to determine the rest of their team will run.  In a bigger race like the State meet they could be hurt by how far back their number five is.

Charlotte Catholic (7) The team that probably symbolizes the pack running in 3A has to be Charlotte Catholic.  The pack mentality works well when the team’s runners are running at their best, it doesn’t work well when the pack dies on the last mile at McAlpine.  It will be interesting to see where this team will end up finishing.  If all seven runners are hitting their stride that could work in their favor.  Also the fact that they almost didn’t make it to the state meet this year will be an unknown factor in how this team runs.

Ragsdale (15) Lead by Justin Smith this team finished fourth at the Midwest region.  What they have to look to as a team is finishing in the top ten at states.  They only had two runners break 18 at McAlpine (and that course is not an indicator to what a runner will do at Tanglewood), what they need to do is hope that the rest of their team rises to the occasion and does better than what they did at McAlpine.

Eastern Alamance (-) Now the Mideast region in 3A might be looked upon as the poorest performing region in the entire classification, but looking at the top team from the region it seems that Eastern Alamance could be a team that can challenge a West or Midwest team.  They won by a wide margin over Williams, and they are lead by the region individual champion Jake Huyrsz who ran a 16:04.95, now the course is unknown to me, but running a time like that always deserves respect.  What they need to happen for them to really pull a surprise?  Their number five runner running better than an 18:11.

Williams (10) The only team from this region that went to the state meet last year, Williams beat Western Alamance by one point at the regional meet.  They have a number one, Graham Crawford, that could do something at the state meet, but they have to work on their depth if they want to break in the top 10.

Western Alamance (-) This team has a nice pack, but what hurts them is their number five runner.  They are going to have to do better than what they did at the Tanglewood Invitational, but they have the benefit of a couple weeks to improve on that.  Look for them to have some extra motivation seeing that they narrowly got edged out by Williams in regionals.

Northeast Guilford (-) This team is a surprise to get a berth in the state meet.  They edged out Union Pines by two points, and even had a slower team time than Union Pines did.  But the only thing that matters is that they get to go to the state meet.  NE Guilford is lead by freshman Dustin Dunn who could surprise some people with how he runs. 

Nash Central (4) The beast from the East, they present themselves as the top team to challenge Mooresville for the 3A title.  Early in the season there were individuals who doubted them as being the second best team, those doubters were quieted after the Wolfpack Invitational.  Also there have been questioned raised over whether this team races too much.  Don’t believe it.  This team looks ready to go and despite not having Dillon Hawley running at 100% all season this team hasn’t lost its focus.  The only concern I see is that if any of their top five has an off day, then they could be in some trouble.  But they have two runners who will be leading them and could pull off a big upset.

West Carteret (11) When looking over this team and how they performed at regionals, is that this team is like a lot of other teams in that they could end up in a wide range of places in the state meet.  It’s just going to depend on how they run.  They seem to have a solid one through four, but the number five runner will be the one that either work for or against them.

White Oak (13) What works in their favor?  They Josh Drew as a number one, who can stay with the top pack.  What could poise as a problem for them?  Their number five ran an 18:43 at regionals.  That’s to slow if they want to do anything at the state meet.

DH Conley (-) This is the first time this team is making an appearance at the state meet.   They are lead by two really good runners, and then there is a drop off.  Not to rain on their parade, you never know what a team will do the first time it runs at the state meet.  Look for this team to run well and not get caught up in the moment.

 Women's Preview

For the girls race there appears to be three teams that I would put in contender class: T.C. Roberson, LakeNorman, and Sun Valley.  Then four teams that can put in the lotto ball class: MarvinRidge, Charlotte Catholic, Asheville, and Reagan.  And then one team that fits the Mooresville class: Mooresville.  These two regions have dominated all the talk this year and it seems that baring any unforeseen collapse these eight teams will take the top eight spots.  It is interesting that for the first time in a long time the 3A title is not assured to go to T.C. Roberson.  This race could be close and should have some drama. 

For the individual crown I don’t want to say that I was close to being right, but I think I did write down that Kenyetta Iveybele of Olympic would win it.  Although she was hurt for the first part of the year, and didn’t run that well in a couple races it seems that she might be the overwhelming favorite to win.  I’m still keeping the pick, my faith hasn’t wavered.  Outside of her there could be a wide range of individuals who could be in the top ten.  Just call it a hunch but the pace to start out the race will not be as slow as it was last year.  Just a hunch. 

T.C. Roberson (1) Yes they are probably the favorite again for the umpteenth time.  Yes they probably have one of the best team in the state.  Yes they won their regional meet again.  Although this team is not as dominant as the ones from previous years.  That’s not a fault on this team, it’s just that the teams in the past set the bar so high.  What can be a concern for them is that they really haven’t solidified a number five runner.  It may not matter, but in a close race it could cost them like it did in the very first meet.

Lake Norman (4) Now this team has to be put in category as contender for a state championship.  They were only ten points behind T.C. Roberson at regionals, they beat Sun Valley at Wendy’s, and this team should go into the state meet thinking they can win it.  They might have the best team in 3A, but that might not translate into a victory.  A room for improvement might be their number four and five runner, and depending on them they could break Roberson’s streak.

Asheville (3) Their number five runner at regional was to far back for them to crack into the top two at that race, and in a bigger race might cause them to slip a bit more.  If the depth can improve then maybe this team can fulfill their preseason rankings.

Mooresville (13) This looked like a team on the rise, one that could sneak into the top five at the state meet.  But injuries have hurt this team, although they are still good enough to finish in the top ten.  If they get some of their injured runners back then maybe they can finish higher than previously thought.

Sun Valley (8) A team that has been running well all season, Sun Valley could pull of an upset and win the state meet.  From one to five they might have one of the best teams in the state.  That’s how high the ceiling is for Sun Valley.  Although like some of the other top teams there are some concerns.  One being if any of their top five either has a bad day or is injured they don’t have the depth to recover from it.  Also their times haven’t improved that much from their first meet.  But that’s all the nitpicking that I could find with this team.  They ran well at the Midwest regional and won easily.  Now comes the next step.  They haven’t beaten Lake Norman this year, and haven’t raced T.C. Roberson at all, so anything really can happen.

Marvin Ridge (9) They were able to squeak by Charlotte Catholic by two points at regionals, but it looks like it will be tough for them to get in the top three.  Lucy Love leads this team and they will have to run a bit better than what they did at regionals.  This team could finish anywhere from fourth to seventh depending on how all the other teams run that day.  But this team has raced well in the big races, so I don’t think there will be any worries about them on Saturday.

Charlotte Catholic (11) What a difference a year makes.  From being the most disappointing team at the state meet to one that is probably overachieving by a lot.  Freshman Jamie Vezolles leads this team with the fastest freshman time in 3A, if anything this team will run better than it did last year. 

Reagan (2) The team that finished last year as the runner up, looks as if they have finally run what they are suppose to be hitting.  They returned a lot from last year and while they haven’t reached their potential, they seem to be peaking at the right time.  This team could be dangerous and could finish higher than what most of the coaches voted.  This team is full of veterans and for that reason only you can’t discount Reagan.

Union Pines (-) Union Pines narrowly edged out Williams at regionals, winning by one point and it was extremely close race.  UP is lead by a nice pack of runners and this could be an advantage to them if they want to crack the top 8.

Williams (7) They will probably be close to Union Pines again in this race as well.  Williams has the runners who can be in the front, although the depth that they have will be a factor in determining if they can get a top ten finish.

Triton (15) Lead by Leanna Goodwin Triton is another Mideast regional team that has a solid one-two punch, but then after that their depth becomes an issue.

Western Guilford (14) Western Guilford is lead by the individual regional winner, in Ganna Bowen who ran a 19:37, and they also have a legit number two runner.  But what is a level of concern is the rest of their team they don’t have much depth after those two runners.

West Carteret (6) This team from the East will look to crash the dominance that the West and Midwest have.  West Carteret along with Jacksonville seem to be overlooked every year, that may be in part because of their location in the state.  Look for this and its pack of runners to run well at Tanglewood and earn a top ten finish.

Jacksonville (5) This team is lead by Ryanna Henderson, who won the regional title with a 19:58.  She will be in the top pack of runners in the state meet, along with her Jacksonville has a solid number two runner.  What hurts them is their depth, hopefully they improve that for the last meet of the year.

Rocky Mount (-) This is a team that really came out of nowhere.  They ended up finishing third in the region behind some solid running by their top five.  The main question that should be asked is can they do this again? .

White Oak (10) White Oak mirrors Rocky Mount when it comes to how their runners stack up.  They are lead by Rachel Johnson and could finish higher than Rocky Mount at the state meet.  It will be interesting to see how the teams from the East regional stack up against other regions.