4A State Meet Preview

4A Preview

 [A preview of all 16 teams that made it to states, the number next to the team is where they placed last year.]

The 4A team race is shaping up to be a repeat of last year.  Broughton aims to repeat as champions, while Green Hope and Chapel Hill are in position to be second and third.  The Mideast region has a firm grasp on 4A, but there are other teams that could crack into the top three.  One of those teams is Northwest Guilford who has posted some fast times, although they were at McAlpine, but was tripped up at their regional meet.  Another team to look out for is the West champions, Ardrey Kell.  What can they do?  They have gone from a team that could challenge the three top Mideast teams, to a team that had peaked and was done, to a team that now has risen back to a potential top five team.  And let’s not overlook MountTabor, who can prove that regionals was no fluke when they beat NW Guilford.  Although it looks as if Broughton is a team that is running well when it matters most, and will be a tough team to take down.

For the individual race Taylor Gilland of Chapel Hill is aiming to win his third straight title.  It looks as if he will do that once again, but the competition he will have to face will present a challenge for him.  Dakota Peachee of West Johnston, Mohammed Abushouk of Cary, and Seth Crawford of East Forsyth could be some of the individuals to challenge Taylor. 

Ardrey Kell (12) Ardrey Kell has been on a rollercoaster throughout the season.  At the beginning of the year they were one of the top teams in 4A, the times they were running were outstanding.  They ended up winning a bunch of invitationals, and it seemed as if they might present a challenge to some of the Mideast teams.  Then they hit a plateau and everyone assumed they were done.  They ended up losing their conference race by a point, and most people had written them off.  But then they pulled it together and won the region.  So what will this team do at the state meet?  I really have no idea.  They have a good team that will return nearly everyone for next year, so they are set for a while.  This team has looked like it peaked a couple weeks ago, but their performance at regional suggest otherwise.

Myers Park (11) Myers Park suffered an injury to their number four runner at regionals.  That might not be that harmful of an injury seeing that they have a nice pack of runners.  This team has been laying low in the shadows for the year, making a cameo appearance at Wendy’s, but other than that they really haven’t done that much racing.  It looks like it has helped them a bit.  This team looks as if they are rested and should be able to run some fast times at the state meet.

Watauga (9) This team put on a good display at the West regional, but what hurt them in the team scoring was their fifth runner.  The time for the number five was 17:33, and at McAlpine and in the 4A that is to slow and will cost them valuable points.   If Watauga can improve on their number five they can be closer to Ardrey Kell and Myers Park.

Weddington (-) What a difference a week and a half makes.  Weddington didn’t look good and didn’t run well at their conference meet, then they pulled it together and pushed by Providence for the last spot in the region.  Now comes the tough part of running in the state meet.  This team is young upfront without any seniors in the top five, but they will have to prove that they can be consistent week to week.

Northwest Guilford (8) If any team outside of the Mideast can win the state title, than Northwest Guilford is probably the best bet to do so.  They have the runners to do so, lead by Seth Crawford, and they did put up some impressive times (albeit it was at McAlpine) but they haven’t hit those times recently.  It was a little glaring that their four and five were 17:17 and 17:27 at the regional meet, seeing that they will run the same course on Saturday.  If they can improve on those times, and have their top three run with what should be a fast pack then maybe they can upset one of the big three teams.

East Forsyth (6) They edged out Mount Tabor by one point at regionals, now they look to do even better at the state meet.  Lead by Patrick Crawford, the individual winner at regionals, they need to work on their depth. 

Mount Tabor (14) It was a bit of an upset that they were beat by East Forsyth at the regional meet, and that might provide them with some motivation.  They had been running well all year and were just a bit off at the regional meet.  I still think that they still can run their best and do well team wise.

Jay M. Robinson (-) This is a surprise team, they kind of came out of nowhere this year and ran some solid times in big races.  Now we can see what they are going to do at the state meet.  They are a pretty young team and seem to be in position to do well in the long run.  They didn’t run that well at regionals, and maybe they have peaked already.

Broughton (1) The defending champs have to be a serious contender to repeat again.  They were overlooked a bit at the beginning of the season, but now that has changed as they are viewed as the top team.  They aren’t a pack team like they were last year, but they were very impressive at their regional and seem to be getting better each week.  It’s going to be a combination of things if any team wants to knock them off the top spot this year.

Green Hope (2) The preseason number 1, has gone through some ups and downs, but it appears that they have righted the ship.  Although it appears from looking at the regional results that they are still a ways off from Broughton.  No word if Bryan Speitzer is healthy again, if he is then they can challenge Broughton,  if not then a replay of the regional meet will happen at Tanglewood. 

Chapel Hill (3) This team seemed by off a bit at the regional meet, but I don’t think that will be the case at the state meet.  Taylor Gilland won the race by eight seconds, and he is looking to win his third straight individual cross country title.  He looks to be in position to do it again.  The team on the other hand has to run a little bit better than what they did at the regional meet.  The three through seven runners were within seven seconds of each other.

Leesville Road (-) They earned a spot to the state meet in what is probably the toughest region.  Leesville Road returns to the state meet after an absence, and look for this team to race well at Tanglewood.  This team is not a one race wonder, but they do have to work on their depth if they want to crack the top ten. 

Pinecrest (10) The top three teams at the East regional were only separated by seven points, the regional champions were Pinecrest who came back strong after losing their conference championship for the first time in over a decade.  At regionals this team ran as a pack and that carried them to the top, with the top five placing eleven to eighteen and being within ten seconds of each other.  That sort of style will help them out in a bigger race, although the one hindrance is not having that shooter of a runner who will score a low number.

Hoggard (13) What hurt Hoggard from winning the regional was their fifth runner, and that could hurt them at Tanglewood.  They were able to place three runners in the top ten, but then were hurt by their lack of depth after that.  This team has run better than what they have done at the regional, they need to find some consistency from the number four and five.

West Johnston (7) Lead by Dakota Peachee, who could challenge Taylor Gilland for the individual crown, West Johnston was only two points away from Hoggard at regionals.  With Peachee as their number one he will help them out by placing in the top five, and if the rest of the team run what they have done before this team could sneak up on a few teams.

South View (5) Their depth is what caused them to finish in fourth place at the region, despite having a solid one through three.  They have put up some fast times, although the courses where they ran them are considered fast and short.  If they can reproduce these times then a top ten finish is in there sights.

Women’s Preview

On the Women’s side there appears to be at least five teams that can actually say that they can win this race.  East Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, Green Hope, MyersPark, and Watauga each could win this race or finish as low as fifth.  Myers Park was the preseason favorite, but ran so-so in the WNC, then they rebounded at Wendy’s, and then lost the regional race to Watauga.  How will they respond on Saturday?  East Chapel Hill made their case when they were the highest finishing team from NC at the Wolfpack Invitational, they have been the most consistent.  Watauga has been a sleeper team for most of the season, and that’s been a surprise.  They haven’t really snuck up on anybody, they just have been running well all year.  Now it seems that they are getting the recognition.  Chapel Hill is the defending champion, they have been running ok this year, and could the state meet be where they turn it on.  And then there is Green Hope who has the best team ranking according to milesplit, they won the Mideast regional, although it appears as if the guys team at Green Hope gets more publicity.  Maybe the last race of the year is when the girl’s team could change that.

On the individual side it appears that North Meck’s Kim Spano will win the race again.  Look for the race to be close for at least a loop at Tanglewood, but after that Spano will probably pull away from the rest of the field.  The pace will probably be fast and there will be some runners who pay the price for going out hard.  Runners who could round out the top five: Carolyn Baskir of East Chapel Hill, Chelsea Hollingsworth of NW Guilford, Jessica Rossabi of Green Hope, and Samantha George of Millbrook. 

Watauga (7) They pulled off one of the biggest upsets at the West regional, by shocking Myers Park.  They had a couple of their girls catch MP in the kick and showed that they are for real.  In 4A there are probably five teams that are capable of winning the meet, Watauga is one of them. 

Myers Park (2) Myers Park hasn’t done that much racing this year, and the results have been mixed.  They looked really good at Wendy’s and their conference championship, and so-so at WNC and the West regional.  It was a little shocking to see them appear to be off their game last Saturday.  It looks like Alexa Gellman is now their top runner, but they do have a nice pack of runners.  For some reason they didn’t match the intensity and effort that Watauga brought.  That’s not a good sign for a big meet, and might play a part in the state meet.

Providence (6) Providence had an off day at the regional meet, it looked like it was their first bad race of the year.  Don’t look for this team to run like that again.  They are lead by freshman Arden Mattachini, but one thing that could be worrisome is that they live at McAlpine-a course that is not comparable to Tanglewood.

Weddington (12)  Not to sure if Haley Kapheim will be running in the state meet, she went down in the last 100 meters at regionals and did not finish.  Just like their guys team, a week and a half made a big difference as they ran much better.  Weddington always seems to be close to Providence, but never beating them, look for that trend to continue at States if Kapheim can’t run.  If she does run then this team could be dangerous.

Mount Tabor (16) Another regional upset occurred in the Midwest as Mount Tabor beat Northwest Guilford by three points.  With that victory you can probably put Mount Tabor in the discussion as one of the top teams in the state.  They were able to put four in the top ten at regionals, but their number five runner was a bit back, and that made the scores between the teams close.  If they can improve on that look for them to crack the top five.

Northwest Guilford (5) They didn’t run that poorly at regionals, in fact looking over the times and places where they finished they actually ran well.  They just didn’t have that many runners in the top ten, compared to Mount Tabor, and that was the reason why they were second.  Since the regional meet was at Tanglewood look for them to have more of a familiarity with the course than other teams.

Page (15) The last two teams in the region, Page and R.J. Reynolds were pretty far back from the top two teams, and both teams seem to be ranked pretty low in the coaches’ prediction poll.  Page’s depth will be a big factor in how well they do. 

R.J. Reynolds (-) Reynolds pulled off a bit of shocker beating West Forsyth and North Meck to earn the last automatic spot.  

Green Hope (8) Green Hope’s girls team has been overlooked for much of the season.  The focus has either been on Myers Park or East Chapel Hill, but quietly this team has been at the top all year and won the regional meet quite convincingly.  Lead by freshman Jessica Rossabi, they are now the favorites to win the state meet.  Green Hope is a team lead by mostly underclassmen, so they are set up for the long run. 

East Chapel Hill (9) They busted out onto the scene at the Wolfpack Invitational, but they finished second at regionals and barely beat Chapel Hill.  Carolyn Baskir may be the one individual who could give Kim Spano a run for her money in the individual race, but what hurt the team at regionals was that the number three, four, and five runners were to far back to do any damage to Green Hope.  East Chapel Hill is still a legit title contender, could they shock the state again?

Chapel Hill (1) Last year’s champions look as if they are peaking at just the right time.  They didn’t look good at the start of the season, but they have found their groove and seem to be the hunt for another title.

Broughton (-) Lead by Timmons Williams, Broughton does not have the depth that could put them in the top ten.  Williams will be in the top pack, but other than that a top ten finish should be the goal for this team.

West Johnston (14) They won their regional meet by over twenty points, and are lead by Maraya Slatter who could finish in the top five individually.  West Johnston is an unknown team in that they could crack the top five if everything goes right for them.

Terry Sanford (3) After a strong finish last year Terry Sanford looks to be a team that could once again run well at Tanglewood.  Cory Catlett is their top runner and she could be another runner to challenge for an all-state position.  Their number five is a reason for concern. 

Pinecrest (10) Pinecrest finished third at their regional, they were pretty far back from West Johnston and Terry Sanford and that could be the case at states.  Outside of a good number one, they have a nice pack of runners they just need to improve on their depth.

Hoggard (-) Hoggard’s one through five presents them with a steady pack of runners, they just need to show some consistency from week to week.