4A Boys Preview
In this weird, somewhat weather-shortened season, there has only been one showdown between the top two runners in the state, even though they go to schools that are separated by only 5 miles! Connor Lane (Cardinal Gibbons) won that day way back in September, clocking 14:59.30 - a time that still leads the state and ranks in the top 20 in the nation over a month later. Though Jeremy Brown (Broughton) finished 2nd to Lane in their lone head-to-head matchup, don't forget that he has also been under 15 minutes; he ran 14:57 at WakeMed in the NXN Southeast Regional last November. This has all the hallmarks of a great 2-man battle, and though a wet and reconfigured Ivey Redmon course probably won't support another sub-15 race, we can look forward to these two competitors pushing each other the whole race.
There should be an incredible chase pack, as well, with 5 guys that have run under 15:40 at some point this year, plus another 10 that have broken 15:50. That puts 15 runners within 20 seconds of each other, and you can bet that al 15 (plus maybe a few more that have serious ambitions for this weekend) will stick together at least through the first two miles. Jack Cawley (Middle Creek) is coming off a very strong race in his conference meet at WakeMed, but in the state meet you have to give the slight nod to the runners who have run well on the state meet course. That includes Kenny Kneisel and Nelson Russ of Mount Tabor, who did not max out in their regional race, as well as Connor MacDonald (East Chapel Hill) and Ben Savino (Apex). East Region individual champ Paul Arredondo (Cape Fear) only ran 16:15 last weekend, but don't let that fool you: he posted a sub-15:40 at WakeMed in September.
That first large group behind the two front-runners should also contain many of the depth runners from the top teams, which makes it doubly interesting to watch. As we predicted at the beginning of the season, Mount Tabor is in position to challenge the 4-year consecutive title streak of Broughton, and this may be the best chance the Spartans have had during that time. Our virtual meet puts Tabor 16 points back from the Capitals, but it under-sells Kenny Kneisel's time (he hasn't run in a single race you would consider "fast" this season, but he has beaten his 15:38 and 15:42 teammates twice now. Moreover, the virtual meet gives too much credit to Broughton's times at WakeMed, which is now clearly the fastest course in the state - those times will come back to the field a bit this Saturday. If ONE of Mt. Tabor's 5-6-7 runners can have a season-best effort this weekend, this will be very close.
Despite all that, Broughton is still the king until dethroned, and that makes them the slight favorite heading into the race. There should also be an interesting battle for the prestige of finishing in the top 5, with Green Hope, East Chapel Hill, Cardinal Gibbons, Apex, and Providence all capable of getting there. A strong performance from Green Hope or Cardinal Gibbons could also be the springboard to something really special next year, as both return 6 of their current top 7. The other 3 teams listed each have large groups of seniors that want to finish strong, and so this second group of teams could boil down to experience vs future potential.