Kaitlyn Davis will look to take Caroline Kirby's title
Photo from Seahawk Invite, by Ben Hovis
The 3A meet features some of North Carolina's top talent. There are individuals like Ryan Hill, Patrick Campbell, Caroline Kirby, and others . . . then there are also 2 top teams in Mooresville's boys and TC Roberson's girls.
There is going to be some very fast racing being done in both races and I truly look forward to watching.
3A Boys
Team Standings based on NCRunners.com database | Individual rankings
The Mooresville boys won their first state title in school history last year and are primed to win their 2nd on Saturday. Despite not having their #1 runner, Patrick Campbell, on Saturday they still won the West Region title by 13 over the #2 ranked team, Asheville. With Mooresville’s depth, they may not need Campbell to run . . . but he’ll run.
There are a lot of rumors flying around, but you should expect Campbell to be racing on Saturday. He had some inflammation under his knee last week and Coach Serefine decided it would be best to rest the knee and sit out the Regional race. If this were fantasy running, he would be listed as questionable for this weekend. However, for all you Brian Westbrook fantasy owners, we know questionable means “he’ll play”. I believe the same holds true with Patrick this weekend.
Asheville’s boys are ranked 2nd in the Coaches Poll and have been all season. They are led by John Harwell who has a PR of 16:02 this season. John finished 2nd at the West Regional this past weekend at Jackson Park. Isaac Presson is Asheville #2 and also a strong runner. Look or both of them to be up towards the front on Saturday.
Reagan’s boys could be making a late push for the #2 spot. Reagan looked good through 4 runners, but will need a 5th runner to step up on Saturday. Nick Freeman and Austin Jones should be able to battle Asheville’s top 2, so then it would depend on 3-5.
In my opinion, those 3 teams stand out, but there are a number of other teams who could finish in the next 2 spots. Don’t be surprised if one were to snag 3rd either.
Charlotte Catholic looks to be coming on at the right time, but are still without a true front runner. Dean Iwaoka and Harry Hartenstine will need to continue to push towards the front for a 3rd place finish. AL Brown is a solid team, but needs their 4th and 5th runners to find another gear. Jeremy Dixon had a huge race at the Midwest Regional to finish 4th overall. TC Roberson is always a top-5 team but is very young this season. Their youngsters have come on since the first of the season and with Coach Carpenter behind the scenes, look for them to race well. Finally, there is Nash Central. Nash Central won the East Regional easily and could be a top 5 contender. Dillon Hawley and Fabian White will need great races for them to be in the mix.
My prediction for the top 10 teams.
1) Mooresville
2) Asheville
3) Reagan
4) Charlotte Catholic
5) AL Brown
6) Nash Central
7) TC Roberson
8) Jacksonville
9) Ragsdale
10) Williams
Ryan Hill is the obvious favorite here for the individual title. However, Patrick Campbell has run with him for about 2 miles in multiple races this year. At the Wendy’s Invitational, Campbell finished 8 seconds off of Hill, running 15:28. Ryan won the Foot Locker South Regional last year and the 3A state title, so he knows how to race. At last year’s 3A race he didn’t look great, but was still able to pull away and capture the title. I hope we see a classic race out of these two athletes.
The battle for 3rd should be a great one! There are a number of runners who could claim this spot and there should be a tight pack, racing stride for stride. This pack could include: Will Taylor, Zach Brantley, Christian Crifasi, Joseph Newman, John Harwell, and probably a few others.
I’ll give Ryan the win, as I’m sure most of you will agree. I’ll put money on Campbell being close, but it’s tough to defeat the FLS region champ.
Here’s a list of 15 individuals to look for in the race:
Ryan Hill, Hickory
Patrick Campbell, Mooresville
Will Taylor, Sun Valley
John Harwell, Asheville
Zach Brantly, Northern Nash
Joseph Newman, Mooresville
Christian Crifasi, Eastern Randolph
Nick Freeman, Reagan
Jeremy Dixon, AL Brown
Isaac Presson, Asheville
Matthew Smith, Statesville
Austin Jones, Reagan
Nick Kelly, Williams
Fabian White, Nash Central
Chase Fisher, NW Cabarrus
There are definitely others that will be in the mix as well.
3A Girls
Teams Standings based on NCRunners.com database | Individual rankings
TC Roberson’s girls are one of the top teams in the state. It will be very difficult for one of the other teams to improve enough to take the Rams. TCR lacks depth after 6, but these girls rarely, if ever, have a bad race. Caroline Kirby won the state title last year, and should be battling again this year. She could very well be joined by teammates Marie Mauhar and Zoe Dubin as they have also broken 19:30 this year.
Reagan’s girls looked solid at McAlpine at the Midwest Regional, winning by 37. Laurie Humphrey and Leslie Raymond were both under 20:00 and should give Reagan a strong 1,2. I don’t think there is enough fire power to knock off the defending champs, but a 2nd place is definitely in the cards.
Asheville has run well all season. Cara Hayes will be near the front of the race, possibly vying for a state title. They will need Kelsey Hanger to run closer to her performance from last year’s state meet. This Asheville squad knows how to peak at the right time, look for them to do well.
Lake Norman was a team on a mission at the Wendy’s Invitational. They felt as if they hadn’t received the recognition they deserved and ran with a chip on the shoulder. It paid off, as they quickly jumped up in the rankings. They finished 3rd, behind Gibbons and Asheville, only losing to Asheville by 4 points. At the West Regional, they were 31points behind Asheville, so they have their work cut out for them. They will need Alexa Van Epern to have a great race.
There are a couple other teams to watch out for. Charlotte Catholic looked much improved at the Midwest Regional. Jacksonville has been in the top 5 all season until the latest poll. Kaitlyn Davis could bring them 1 point, so that would be a nice start.
The top 10 may turn out to look like this:
1) TC Roberson
2) Reagan
3) Asheville
4) Charlotte Catholic
5) Jacksonville
6) Lake Norman
7) Marvin Ridge
8) Sun Valley
9) Williams
10) White Oak
The girl’s individual race should be a good one. There are a number of girls who have a shot at the title. As I said before, Caroline Kirby is the defending champ and as always will come running her best. Kailyn Davis of Jacksonville has the fastest time in 3A this year of 18:56. She is only a sophomore and is running much better after a year of experience. Lindsay Ester of Williams is consistently at the front as well and won her regional with ease. Teal McLean of Hickory Ridge, formerly of NW Cabarrus, ran a fantastic race at the Midwest Regional. She attacked the hill and put distance on Danielle Hobbs of Sun Valley. If she runs with the same confidence and strength at states she could come away the champ. Danielle Hobbs will need to have a much better race than regionals, as she didn’t look like herself.
I’m going to go with . . . Caroline Kirby and Kaitlyn Davis headed into the final hill together and Kirby pulling through by about 6 seconds.
Let’s take a look at 20 individuals who should be in the mix.
Teal McLean, Hickory Ridge
Kaitlyn Davis, Jacksonville
Caroline Kirby, TC Roberson
Cara Hayes, Asheville
Lindsay Ester, Williams
Marie Mauhar, TC Roberson
Danielle Hobbs, Sun Valley
Alex Van Epern, Lake Norman
Zoe Dubin, TC Roberson
Lauran Hanson, Fike
Beth Hanson, Fike
Laurie Humphrey, Reagan
Kyle Clark, Hickory
Stephanie Chapman, TC Roberson
Laura Hoer, TC Roberson
Maggie McBride, Charlotte Catholic
Leslie Raymond, Reagan
Ryanna Henderson, Jacksonville
Natalie Rich, Nash Central
Elyse Will, South Point
Again, this list could grow to 30 in a hurry. This is going to be a very competitive race!