1A Boys
The 1A Boys’ team competition is going to outstanding. No team has truly stood out all season. There are probably a handful of teams who could win the state title, depending on the days they have. Look for this to be a battle right until the finish. Don’t count on watching the race and being able to pick out the winning team. It probably won’t be that easy.
Coming out of the Midwest Region are 3 teams who all could win. Bishop McGuinness won the regional by 4 points . . . over 3rd place. Bishop scored 59, Gray Stone Day 60, and East Wilkes 63.
Out of the West Region, Murphy may be the strongest team in 1A. They have been ranked highly in the Coaches Poll all season and proved that with their 24 point win in the West.
Then I can’t count out North Carolina School of Science and Math. With Cam Cook up at the front, with possibly 1 point coming from him, I have to think the defending champs are a contender. It has been a bumpy road for them this year but with a dominant win at their regional, I see them in the hunt. Let’s take a look at these 5 team’s regional times look.
Note: Obviously different courses.
Bishop McGuinnes -- Gray Stone Day -- East Wilkes -- Murphy -- NCSSM
17:43 17:38 18:03 17:40 17:22
18:46 18:11 18:14 17:47 18:01
18:56 18:15 18:43 18:24 18:39
19:04 19:08 19:18 18:25 18:57
19:14 19:44 19:28 18:42 19:01
Then you also have a couple more teams from the West and Topsail from the East entering into the picture. The West is the other region where I see the most potential to break into the top 5 overall. Hayesville, Robbinsville, and Hendersonville are all capable of top 5 finishes. Here’s my prediction for the top 10 teams . . . but paper doesn’t tell you anything. That’s why the state meet is run.
1A boy's team standings based on NCRunners.com database.
1) Murphy
2) Hayesville
3) NCSSM
4) Hendersonville
5) Robbinsville
6) Gray Stone Day
7) Bishop McGuinnes
8) East Wilkes
9) South Stokes
10) Topsail
The individual competition looks like it could be a good one. Like the team competition, there doesn’t seem to be one individual who is heads above the rest.
Check out this link, which shows you the 1A boys who have met the NCRunners 18:00 standard. There are 22 athletes in the NCRunners database.
Based on the last 3 weeks and mostly the regional races, the top 10 individuals coming in are:
Cam Cook, NCSSM
John Wolfe, Polk County
Patrick Sullivan, Gray Stone Day
Will Scott, Bishop McGuinness
Al Gaxiola, Murphy
Daniel Kimmel, NCSSM
Ricky Rivas, South Stokes
Jake Swimmer, Cherokee
Eric Blackburn, East Wilkes
Noah Hall, Polk County
Obviously there will be kids outside this list moving into the top 10. I fully expect that to happen. I’m going to call Cam Cook for the win.
1A Girls
The 1A Girl’s team title looks to be headed to Bishop McGuinness. Bishop has had a superb season this year and has already run extremely well on the Tanglewood course. They have also handily beaten Topsail this season, the #2 ranked team. However, Topsail ran very well at their regional, a perfect score, and their top 5 girls under 21:40. Bishop has had a few races this year where they struggled a bit, if they should falter, Topsail could sneak in for #1.
Topsail and Bishop look to be the cream of the crop, but there are other good teams in the 1A meet. Hayesville has won the last 4 state titles and won the West region again this year. They are still solid and should be battling for a 3rd place finish. East Wilkes has a great front two in Carol Blankenship and Anna Hayes, but after their 3rd, there is a big drop off. That could really hurt them come Saturday. Back to the West Region, Hendersonville, Robbinsville, and Avery are all solid teams, but lack the depth of Topsail and Bishop. Robbinsville is led by the Trammell sisters who are sub 21:00 5ker’s but then drop back to 24:00 for #3. Hendersonville’s 2-5 are within 1:30 of each other and they are led by Kristen Stout who could be battling for the state title. They should be top 5, no problem. Finally, Avery County has a 1,2 punch in Kate Grieswisch and Mary Chesnut Smith, but then they drop back 23:00 for 3 & 4.
Here are my team predictions.
1A girl's team standings based on the NCRunners.com database
1) Bishop McGuinness
2) Topsail
3) Hayesville
4) Hendersonville
5) Avery
6) East Wilkes
7) Robbinsville
8) Jordan-Matthews
9) NCSSM
10) Northside
The individual race should be a great one. Last year Zatha Loewen of Topsail and Anna Hayes of East Wilkes battled for about 2.5 miles and then Zatha opened the race up, winning with a time of 19:22. Zatha will be running again, as she was only a freshman last year. Coming in, I saw Jodie Lemons of South Stokes as the favorite, but she is hurt now and did not run at her regional. There are plenty of possible winners. Elizabeth Humphries of Jordan-Matthews has had an excellent season, running consistently under 20:00, with a PR of 19:24. She and Heather Hofmann of Bishop ran together most of the way at the Midwest Regional until Elizabeth took off and won by 9 seconds. Heather Hofmann ran 19:44 on the Tanglewood course already this season, so she has the confidence to run fast. Cissy Nitz, Heather’s teammate, ran 19:52 at Tanglewood, so don’t count her out either. Finally, Kristen Stout of Hendersonville ran 20:21 at Jackson Park, winning by 27 seconds. She should run even better with competition.
This link contains the rankings for 1A girls based on the NCRunners.com database.
The top 10 girl’s coming into the race look to be:
Elizabeth Humphries, Jordan-Matthews
Heather Hofmann, Bishop McGuinness
Zatha Loewen, Topsail
Kristen Stout, Hendersonville
Cissy Nitz, Bishop McGuinness
Faith Trammel, Robbinsville
Carol Blankenship, East Wilkes
Tacy Trammel, Robbinsville
Anna Hayes, East Wilkes
Katie Pellitterri, Bishop McGuinness
Again, like the boys, I fully expect some other ladies to mix it up with these 10 girls. I could have listed 15 easily.
Best of luck to all!