The state's young talent will take center stage for the Frosh/Soph Invitational, the UNOFFICIAL JV State Championship.
The NCRunners Elite Invitational has been a source of mystery over the last three years, due to a quirk of the calendar. (History lesson alert!) When the meet was first established, it was placed approximately 10 days from the middle of "conference meet week." This was possible because the state meet, which is always the first Saturday in November, was relatively late (November 5th, 6th, or 7th). In recent years, however, the state meet has fallen earlier, and the meet has been the weekend before conference meets begin. As a result, many teams have come to the meet seeking to gain experience on the NCHSAA state meet course, while at the same time wanting to save some energy for a championship that might only be 2 or 3 days away. The meet's format creates an additional wrinkle, as well: some of the top 9th- and 10th-graders might run in the Frosh/Soph race, while others might be with their teams in one of the varsity races. Throw in the fact that Saturday is an SAT date, removing many juniors and seniors from the equation, and we really have no idea who will run and who won't! To me, that adds an extra layer of excitement, as we wait to see who comes to the line for each race as well as who gets to the finish line first. Despite all these difficulties, let's take a look at how the races COULD go:
Boys Invitational Race
Zach Boone (Mitchell) tends to dominate races. That's often because he attends 1A Mitchell High, and finds himself running against smaller-school competition, and that could be the case again this weekend. On the other hand, Boone would be welcome in the Championship race, where he would definitely fit in! Green Hope is going to be running without several top-7 runners this weekend, and that could allow Epiphany to challenge for the team trophy in this race. Epiphany'a Parker White and Jarrett Gingrich could compete for the win if Boone moves up, but they will have to go through Frank Cline (Robbinsville) to get it. Jordan is also capable of challenging for the team win here.
Girls Invitational Race
This should be an extremely competitive race, both individually and among the teams entered, as long as most of the predicted participants are actually present. Jennifer Stephenson (Village Christian) may find herself dueling with Shawnda Martin (Robbinsville), and they could well be joined by Abby Verchick (Union Pines). If Mariah Howlett (Lake Norman Charter) chooses to run this race and not the Frosh/Soph, she should also be with that group. If she does stay in the Invitational, it will be because her Lake Norman Charter team has a chance to win it, although Pine Lake Prep is right on their heels.
Boys Championship Race
Nearly all of the top 25 runners potentially entered in this race are juniors and seniors, which would normally make for a very competitive race if it weren't for that whole SAT thing. Still, there should be enough talent to form a strong lead pack, and a junior-heavy chase pack is certainly possible. Kyle Christ (West Johnston) and Nicholas Walker (Science & Math) squared off in the adidas XC Challenge, with Christ winning by 10 seconds. Mitchell Resor (Weddington) is right in the same ballpark, and David Edwards (Cardinal Gibbons) could be there as well - he ran from the front at the end of last weekend's PR race, and could benefit from being pulled by someone ahead of him. Mount Tabor front-runners Kenny Kneisel and Brad Walter could also be in the first pack, as could Connor Lane (Cardinal Gibbons) if he does not run in the Frosh/Soph race. If the course is dry, this could be the perfect opportunity for runners like Connor Peeples (Cardinal Gibbons) and Jack Mastrandea (Lake Norman) to break 16 for the first time.
As is often the case at this point in the season, a team like Cardinal Gibbons has not yet "put it all together" - that is, the Crusaders haven't had all 5 runners hitting on all cylinders on the same day. When that happens, they will be quite a force. As it stands, though, they project to have a moderate lead over Weddington and Mount Tabor. In truth, of course, all three teams are most likely missing at least one runner to the SAT, and so the team scores might favor the deepest team rather than the one with the most talent up front. It will also be interesting to see how Science & Math stacks up against the big 3A and 4A programs, as the Unicorns seek another run at a 2A state title.
Girls Championship Race
This could be one the most exciting race of the day, depending on who is actually participating from the registered teams. Ryen Frazier is coming off of a 17:22 at WakeMed, which makes her a legitimate threat to the course record of 17:27. Kathleen Mansure (Watauga) and Grace Sullivan (Providence) ran in separate races at Wendy's, and both ran from the front - wouldn't it be cool to see what they could do with someone in front of them? Interestingly, the top of this race is very senior-heavy (which makes it vulnerable to SAT decimation); in addition to the three above, you can also factor in Megan Vaughn (Cardinal Gibbons) and Maddie McHugh (Hough), if she is healthy. The big question individually is, will top underclass runners like Marissa Bishop (Cardinal Gibbons) and Kiley Aymar (Ardrey Kell) run here with the top 7 from their school, or will they run in the Frosh/Soph race for a chance at individual glory? Finally, don't count out Sophie Ebihara, as the veteran of many strong races on this course is getting recovered from some time off, and should get stronger each week.
In terms of team scoring, Cardinal Gibbons has the potential to dominate if the Crusaders are at full strength. There will be a mini-4A Midwest battle between Providence, Ardrey Kell, Lake Norman, and Hough, as all 4 school position themselves to compete for a spot in the state meet out of that intensely competitive region.
Boys Frosh/Soph Race
If everything fell just right, we could see three of the state's Future Stars racing together here: Connor Lane (who might be in the Championship race), David Melville (Northern Guilford), and Jonathan Timothy (Chapel Hill); the latter two are definitely in this race. Throw in Andrew Robinson (Fast Twitch) and Sam Grelck (Cardinal Gibbons) and we could see 5 guys under 16:20! In this race, the deepest programs nearly always triumph, and that make teams like Mount Tabor, Cardinal Gibbons, and Green Hope should be in the mix for the team tophy.
Girls Frosh/Soph Race
How awesome would it be to see Marissa Bishop and Kiley Aymar duke it out for an individual win without any current stars in front of them? Then, how about a second group of Frances Massey (East Lincoln), Holly Bailey (Lake Norman), and Josie Jordan (Ardrey Kell)? All five of them are on the North Carolina Future Stars list, and could be in this race together, although several also run for strong teams that may compete in varsity races. As far as team scores go, we're used to the idea that Green Hope and Providence always have great young talent in the pipeline - but it could actually be Lake Norman with the deepest roster of fast 9th- & 10th-graders.