Girls XC Preseason Rankings: #14

<p> <span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Does the impending graduation of Morken and Araba also signal the end of an amazing 7-year run for Carrboro?

 

	Carrboro (NC)
	1) Maysa Araba		18:03.66	10
	2) Helen Morken		18:25.22	18
	3) Amanda Hickey		20:25.08	205
	4) Natalie Richardson		20:34.27	235
	5) Amelia Covington		20:56.14	303
	Average Time: 19:40.87 Total Time: 1:38:24.37 1-5 Split: 2:52.48
	6) Kara Stonecypher		21:30.71	410
	7) Lindsayann Heath		22:18.98	594

A four-year 2A title streak ended by the thinnest of margins in 2013.  Did that motivate the Jaguars to train harder over the winter (they don't compete indoors)?  If the spring season is any indiciation. the answer would seem to be yes, as this team had the 8th-best 5-girl 1600 ranking in the state.  That was largely spurred by another breakthrough season from Maysa Araba, who is a legitimate sub-18 runner this fall if her progress continues; she ran 5:03 and 10:38 during outdoor track season to rank among the very best in NC regardless of classification.  Depth will be a concern, but Carrboro has made a habit of cultivating solid runners to replace those lost by graduation, as evidenced by the 6th-best Improvement Rating among the teams in these rankings.  #19 East Lincoln returns plenty of firepower, and last year's 3rd-place team, Croatan, was weakened by graduation but still has a solid team - so a return to the throne will not be easy for the 2014 Jaguars.  With their top 6 back and 4 seniors in this year's projected top 7, including front-runners Araba and Helen Morken, this may be the last title shot for Carrboro for the forseeable future, and you can expect them to work hard to capitalize on that opportunity.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 16th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 8th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 14th

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 11.230 (6th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 10.585 (10th)