Girls Preseason XC Rankings: #18

<p> <span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

East Lincoln has come from so far off the radar screen over the past three years that it makes it hard to project the defending 2A champs.

 

	East Lincoln (NC)
	1) Frances Massey		18:35.37	22
	2) Magdalyn Foley		19:54.04	127
	3) Megan Rowles		20:19.27	174
	4) Madison Rowles		20:20.06	180
	5) Elizabeth Sisk		20:43.37	270
	Average Time: 19:58.42 Total Time: 1:39:52.11 1-5 Split: 2:08.00
	6) Shelbee Knopf		21:52.77	488
	7) Caitlin Mason		23:32.98	835

After coming from completely off the cross country map several years ago (which means the team doesn't even have an Improvement Rating due to lack of depth), the Mustangs won the 2A state title in dramatic fashion last fall.  Despite that success, this team was the most difficult team to place out of the 60+ teams evaluated for this ranking.  With no track record for improvement to rely on, and very little track data other than Frances Massey's 5:23/11:25, it is very hard to judge where this team will be once the 2014 season opens.  Will they be motivated to repeat, or content with the championship they already won?  East Lincoln returns thir top 6 from that title-winning team, and will have only 2 seniors this year, projected as their 5th and 6th this upcoming season.  That means the front 4 are together through 2015, and if the success of the program can attract some new runners to provide depth, then the Mustangs could be capable of a three-year title run.  It won't be easy - although this team is projeted as #1 in 2A among returning teams, the margin is very thin.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 16th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 45th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: NR

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: NR

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: NR