At #5 we find two teams with significant depth but lacking front-runners, both programs with significant histories of success.
As we approach the start of official NCHSAA cross country practices on July 30th, NCRunners will count down the top 15 teams in our Preseason All-Classes Team Rankings. The list began with the returning 5000 rankings from the 2011 cross country season, and then modifications were made based on improvements during the spring track season, runners lost, and recent program history. Bonus consideration was given to teams with tight packs (at least 3 of the top 5 within 30 seconds of each other) and front runners (under 16 minutes for boys, under 18:45 for girls). Subscribers can view the statistics that were used in the rankings process:
Returning 5000 Team Rankings
Returning 3200 Team Rankings
Returning 1600 Team Rankings
Boys' Preseason #5 Team: T. C. Roberson
How many teams can lose their top two runners, still return 5 sub-17 guys, and start the next season ranked 5th in the state? That's what T. C. Roberson has accomplished, and it's a testament to their depth and the strength of their program. The Rams will be formidable this season despite lacking a true front-runner, as they should be able to run together as a pack and keep the score from their 4th and 5th runners lower than most teams. Paul Kovach, Zach Houser, and Jesse Kovacs all had solid outdoor track seasons, but this program makes its biggest gains in the summer. Statistically, this team scores almost exactly the same in the overall rankings as the teams ranked 3rd and 4th, and that means T. C. Roberson is as good a contender for the 4A title right now as anyone else. If they can finish 3rd or better at the state meet, that would make three straight years in the top 3; talk about great performances when it matters most! Don't be surprised if the Rams discover some young talent along the way, too, as the middle-school programs in the Asheville area have been active the last few years.
Girls' Preseason #5 Team: Myers Park
Myers Park has a load of returning talent on the girls' side, but one thing holds them back just a bit in these rankings: last fall, the Mustangs came out very slowly at the beginning of the season, which could indicate they didn't have a very good summer. If that problem is fixed thi year, however, watch out: this team only lost their 5th and 6th runners from the squad that ended the 2011 season ranked 6th overall. Sonja Payerpaj continued to develop in the spring season, running 11:49 for 3200, and Mary Prouty (5:36) and Madeline Frank (5:35/12:20) also showed solid improvement. That could give the Mustangs as many as six runners under 20 minutes this fall, and if that happens they will be tough to beat. If they have a weakness in that ideal scenario, it would be the lack of a true front-runner (given the strength at the top of the girls' 4A division); if your first runner is in 24th place, that puts you at a slight disadvantage in the scoring. All that notwithstanding, the ceiling on this Myers Park team is very high, and they could find themselves in the top 3 overall by the end of the season.
At #5 we find two teams with significant depth but lacking front-runners, both programs with significant histories of success.
As we approach the start of official NCHSAA cross country practices on July 30th, NCRunners will count down the top 15 teams in our Preseason All-Classes Team Rankings. The list began with the returning 5000 rankings from the 2011 cross country season, and then modifications were made based on improvements during the spring track season, runners lost, and recent program history. Bonus consideration was given to teams with tight packs (at least 3 of the top 5 within 30 seconds of each other) and front runners (under 16 minutes for boys, under 18:45 for girls). Subscribers can view the statistics that were used in the rankings process: