Cross Country Preseason All-Classes Top 25: Boys

This is going to be a different kind of boys' cross country season for North Carolina, at least when compared to the last few seasons.  Gone are most of the big-name runners who have been nationally competitive (with the exception of Thomas Graham).  In their place, we should see fantastic team battles among deep squads that have great traditions in this sport (even the schools that have been around less than ten years).  Will anyone new step up to follow in the individual legacy of Huryz, Presson, Williams, and Morgan?  Who will emerge as the best overall team in the state?  It will be exciting to find the answers to these questions as the season progresses.

This is one man's opinion on the top 25 teams in the state coming into the season.  One new team will be revealed every day until July 30th, the official first day of practice for NCHSAA schools.  Beneath each team is their top 7 returners, based on last year's results.

For a discussion on the methodology behind these rankings, check out the NCRunners Facebook page.

Subscribers can view a statistical ranking of cross country teams (based only on returning PR's).

1. Chapel Hill: We begin this season where we left off last fall, with the Tigers on top of the all-classes rankings.  Although they may not be as dominant this time around, there is always plenty of depth in this program, which has been proven to reload year after year.  Great development through both offseasons (they don't compete in the winter) fuels much of their strength, as does their championship history (second to none) and culture of consistent hard work.  Track season saw them set a school record in the 4x800, and McLeod seemed to step up with a 9:22 in the 3200, along with strong times from several returners  Simply put, they'll be considered the best until they are beaten, although that DOES appear possible this year...

2. South View: Based on their returning times, the Tigers have the best front five of anyone (but fall off sharply to their 6th and 7th runners).  Those times may be aided, however, by running on courses that range from lightning fast to almost certainly short.  They showed off great depth during track season, but only Crawford put up a big time.  Summer training practices ("optionals") are well-organized and well-attended.  The best thing going for South View: their huge race at the state meet last fall.  Along with Green Hope and TC Roberson, the Tigers elevated when it really mattered (and when other teams were struggling in the first state meet at Beeson Park).  Strong senior leadership, combined with that experience, will give them a good shot to win it this time around.

3. Mount Tabor: One of the deepest programs in the state, last year they were held back by the lack of a front-runner.  Perhaps Copus or Oliver will give them that, or perhaps their entire pack will shift forward, making it unnecessary.  If either of those happen, the Spartans are a definite title threat.  They had a solid track season that saw some younger runners stepping up.  Now it comes down to their summer training, which is almost legendary in Forsyth County, and health, with a few of their top 5 having gone through some minor injury issues in the past few months.  This team will run together and run aggressively, and that can be a powerful combination.

4. Ardrey Kell: Having a top 5 composed entirely of seniors is normally a very good sign, and it means great leadership and experience for the Knights.  However, it might be the improvement of sophomore Christian White that turns out to be key, as he became the fastest freshman 800 runner in the state by a wide margin last spring.  Sometimes the 800 translates well to the 5K, and sometimes it doesn't; we will see what comes this fall.  This team has been a regular contender in the short life of the school, but has not yet made it into the top 5.  The state is wide open this year, and if they run for themselves and each other this could be the year.

5. Cardinal Gibbons: Perhaps a bit overshadowed of late by the successes of the Gibbons girls, this is a program with great history.  Consistent coaching has produced solid improvement through track season, with their top 4 running 4:40 or better and even their depth runners showing good times.  On returning times, the Crusaders are as good through 4 runners as just about anyone; spring results seem to indicate they have closed the gap between their 4 and 5, giving them a ferocious pack that will be hard to overcome.  If Phillips and/or Schotzinger can get under 16, that will make Gibbons very formidable.

6. Reagan: Considered a title contender last year before suffering through a bad day at the state meet, the Raiders will definitely be out to prove they can contend again this year.  Arguably the most improved team in the state through track season; nobody has a better returning 1-2 punch than Engels (4:15/9:22) and Marsh (4:30/9:33), and their depth runners came way up (Cabean, Griffith, and Jason Creasy in particular).  They have great dedication among their runners, and if they have developed a true 5th runner they will be hard to beat, especially on the heels of a strong summer.  There are too many unknowns right now to rank them higher, but don't be surprised if they end up there.

7. T.C. Roberson: One of three boys' teams that really elevated their performances at the state meet last fall, the Rams return a true front-runner in Cole Rains.  They had a very strong track season (particularly the Kovach brothers), and if they can develop a bit more depth they will have a chance to duplicate last year's third-place finish.  As with all of the top 8 teams, TCR has an atmosphere of hard work and success that all but ensures they will be contenders at the end of the season.  Do elevation and cooler weather give them a summer-training advantage?

8. Myers Park: After a somewhat disappointing finish last fall, the Mustangs have rebounded with a strong track season.  This team was hard to place in the rankings.  Did they improve as much as the next two squads?  How will the junior-heavy roster respond to the competition in a suddenly very strong West 4A region?  Myers Park could very well move up in these rankings, but only time (and summer training) will tell.

Note: there is another clear break here, leaving the #9 - #12 teams as the second tier.  That gives us a group of 8 teams at the top.  There is some separation among these teams from 1-8, but not enough to break it into two clear tiers.

9. Broughton: One of the most consistent teams over the past several years, the Caps will be strong again.  They have good talent up front, good depth, and had a solid track season.  This team is one good summer away from entering the top tier of teams, and I won't be surprised if they get there.  Side note: this is the top-ranked team from the Mideast 4A, but somehow you always expect the competition in that region to elevate the teams there...

10. Panther Creek: Originally excluded from this list due to an error, the Catamounts definitely belong in the second tier of teams.  Three of their returning runners had good results during track season, but I'm not sure about the training the rest of their guys had.  Nonetheless, this team has very good depth and they seem poised to move up into the top 4 in the Mideast 4A and advance to the state meet this year.

11. Northwest Guilford: This team can be a puzzle.  They do not have great track results (except for Walton), although many of their top 7 runners did participate.  However, they do seem to be a stronger program in cross country season than track results would indicate from year to year.  They will need a good summer to hold off Watauga, let to alone jump into the top 8.  Still, the Vikings always seem to get there by the end of the season, and with four seniors (including the top 3 runners) the leadership should be there.

12. Watauga: Another program on the rise the last two years, this one returning from a brief lull after a strong history.  Altitude and attitude always assure the Pioneers have the opportunity to improve, and with a junior-heavy top 7 they may not be done after this year.  Depth could be a bit of an issue, though, unless they can develop a few more guys.

Note: the teams ranked 13-18 represent the third tier of teams.  All teams above this point have a returning average time under 17.

13. Green Hope: Another 4A Mideast team, this one really affected by graduation after winning the 4A title last year.  Still, this program has been known for producing great depth and consistent contenders, and this squad should still be able to get out of the region and be top 10 at the 4A state meet.  They elevated their performance at the state meet to being home the championship, and if they rise to the challenge at the regional and state again this year nobody will be surprised.

14. Cary: Led by one of the state's best individuals, the imps return a solid front five but might lack depth.  The 4A Mideast region, always ultra-competitive, suddenly lacks a marquee team and seems wide open, and Cary has as good a chance to advance as anyone there.  Once there, they are in line to be a top-10 team, great experience for a team with three juniors and a sophomore in their top 7.

15. North Lincoln:  There is some question about their home course (all 7 returning runners had PR's there), so perhaps take their times with a grain of salt.  These things are not in question, however: the Knights have good depth, they improved incredibly from 2009 to 2010, and their #7 runner in these rankings ran 4:36 this spring.  Even a fraction of last year's improvement could put them into contention for a 2A title.

16. Providence Day

17. NC School of Science & Math

18. Millbrook

19. East Rowan

Note: there seems to be a clear break here.  The teams below are very similar to each other, and the order could be changed a lot.  However, they represent the fourth tier of teams in this ranking.

20. Pinecrest

21. Carrboro

22. Weddington

23. Hough

24. Athens Drive

25. Orange