You could not ask for a more perfect day to host one of the biggest meets of the year. Combine a forecast for cool, clear weather with the typically high level of competition at this meet and you have a prescription for big times! One variable could hold things back a little bit, though: how many of the teams will be missing a runner or two who are taking the SAT?
The Course
WakeMed has quickly become one of the most imporant courses in the Southeast, as it hosts both Great American and NXN Southeast Regional as well as a major invitational and numerous championships of local importance. The course has a challenging grind of a hill that is run twice, the second time leading right to the finish. WakeMed became a lot faster two years ago when a downhill start was put in place, and since then it has run almost as fast as vaunted PR factory McAlpine Greenway (home of the Footlocker South Regional). Check out some of the stats for yourself:
Meet Records
(Since 2000, drawn from the MileSplit database)
Boys | Girls
Course Records
(Drawn from the MileSplit database)
Boys | Girls
Boys Race of Champions
Teams to Watch
Okay, so you should probably watch all of them. Once again, the NSSF has prepared a strong slate of teams from around the country for the premiere race of the weekend. There appear to be several schools with legitimate chances to win, and the two best-represented states will be Georgia and Virginia. US #35 Brookwood headlines the Georgia schools; the defending 5A champion already has its top 6 under 16:06. They will be joined in representing the Peach State by 4A champion Marist and 3A champion St. Pius X. Last year's runner up in this race, Virginia 3A state champion Midlothian, will again be in the hunt despite getting hit by graduation. Already victorious once this fall on the WakeMed course, at the adidas XC Challenge, that experience could pay off Saturday. In fact, last year's top 4 teams in the Virginia 3A division will be present, as Midlothian is joined by Albemarle, Colonial Forge, and Stafford; Skyline rounds out the contingent from the Old Dominion State. The furthest-traveling school is Great Oak (CA), who last year finished 14th in the Division I state meet with a top 5 average that would win most states. They are currently ranked #16 in the country, so don't be deceived by their 5K times: at the Woodbridge Classic (a three-mile race), they lost only to Arcadia and averaged 14:48 (which converts to 15:20 for 5K).
St. Xavier (KY) also has a powerful squad, and the 2010 3A runners-up have the best 3rd man in the field according to this year's times. West Virginia sends 3A state champion Cabell Midland, who dominated the Mountain State last fall and only lost one top 7 runner. Not to be outdone, Tennessee sends its current #2 team Bearden with plans to make a run at a top 5 finish. Pennsylvania's Cardinal O'Hara is currently ranked third in their state, and they finished third in last year's 3A state meet. Florida is represented by Colonial High School, which finished third in the 4A classification last year. Winston Churchill was the runner-up in the Maryland 4A race last fall and is currently ranked second in their state. The field is rounded out by a trio of Northeast schools: Bishop Guertin (NH), Bishop Feehan (MA), and Bishop Hendricken (RI). Guertin and Feehan both finished second in their state meets last year, while US #38 Hendricken was the Rhode Island state champion.
Individuals to Watch
Jacob Burcham (Cabell Midland) has the fastest PR of anyone in the field, a 15:03 on a fast course earlier this year. Going sub-15 here would be a huge accomplishment, as only one high schooler has done it...and his name was Alan Webb. Kevin Chamberlin (Great Oak) has a 14:39 for three miles, which translates to 15:10, and Jacob Thomson (Holy Cross, Louisville, KY) should be right in the hunt, as well. Two guys with big PR's that haven't yet broken out this season: Andres Arroyo (Colonial FL) and Thomas Madden (Skyline VA). Watch for those two to match or exceed their all-time bests in the excellent conditions Saturday. After those four, it should be a wide-open competition with 11 runners who have already broken 16 this year. Keep an eye on Seumas O'Reilly (Warren County, VA) and Austin Sprague (St. Pius X), as well as Morgan Malanosky (Brookwood). Local runner Sam Roberson (Broughton) has run under 15:30 on this course already this year.
Boys RoC Virtual Meet
(Full teams only, based on 2011 times from the MileSplit database)
Girls Race of Champions
Teams to Watch
Did you think the boys' field was impressive? The girls' race is headlined by three of the top 10 teams in the country. US #4 Saratoga Springs has looked the best so far this fall; they were New York AA runners-up to eventual national champs Fayetteville-Manlius last year, and are ranked #2 in the Empire State this fall. Tatnall, a team that hasn't really put up big times yet this fall but has enormous talent, is US #5. They won this year's Maymont Festival in Virginia without superstar Haley Pierce, and they scored only 19 points in dominating the Delaware Division 2 team title last fall. North Carolina's Green Hope is just around the corner from WakeMed and races there all the time, which could be an advantage for them. On the other hand, the defending 4A champions and US #9 Falcons will be down a runner due to the SAT. Though they are ranked 44th in the country, the computer says Kentucky 3A champion Assumption will be right in the thick of the team competition. Don't count out another local team, Broughton, who has surprised with their strength this year and could challenge for a top 5 spot. The Great Oak girls are just as strong as their boys: they hold a US #17 ranking and defeated several national powers at the Woodbridge Classic, averaging 17:21 for three miles (which equates to 17:58 for 5K), and they are the defending Division I champions. North Carolina's higher humidity could trouble the dry-weather Californians, but the forecast for cooler weather should negate most of that effect.
As in the boys' race, Virginia and Georgia are represented by multiple teams. Midlothian's girls also won the adidas XC Challenge here two weeks ago, beating Broughton in the process, and the defending 3A state champions hold a US #47 ranking. They will be joined by fellow Virginians Cosby and Colonial Forge. Brookwood again leads the Georgia contingent, but the 5A runners-up will have a tough in-state battle with Harrison, who finished 5th in the same race. Like their male counterparts, the Marist girls won the Georgia 4A title last fall; First Presbyterian Day finished second in the 1A classification. Florida is represented by Olympia High School, Bishop Guertin finished second in the New Hampshire Division I state meet last fall, Bishop Feehan ranks #2 in Massachusetts this fall, and Monroe-Woodbury finished 5th in New York's 2A classification last year.
Individuals to Watch
Haley Pierce (Tatnall) has not raced yet this season, but she holds a wickedly fast 17:05 PR and has a chance to win any race she runs. Grace Tinkey (First Presbyterian) has run her PR of 17:38 this fall, but she will have a ton of pressure behind her from a fleet of upper-17 runners. Sammy George (Millbrook NC), Hannah Lowery (Stafford VA), and Katie Fortner (Cave Springs VA) have all posted sub-18 times this fall (George did it at WakeMed two weeks ago), while Megan Moye (Cosby) ran 17:42 last fall. Watch out for Great Oak's Pauline Mandel and Maiya Larsen, whose three-mile times both suggest sub-18 potential.