Aug 08, 2011

Boys Preview

East

Teams to watch: Sometimes considered the weakest 4A region, there is some real strength here this year. South View is one of six true contenders for the team title. Watch out for Pinecrest, who had a good showing at the Appalachian State team camp. West Johnston is a sure bet to advance to the state meet. The dark horse here is Ashley, who has a new #1 runner (see below) and returns a solid group. They will likely battle Jack Britt and Terry Sanford for the last spot into the state meet.

Individuals to watch: This is an extremely competitive region with no clear front-running guy. If you allow a little bit for the Mid-South Conference course last year, then it seems like Mason Boyles (formerly of Hoggard, now at Ashley) could be the slight favorite for the win, but Josh Crawford (South View) should be right there as well. Jeremy Gower (West Johnston) improved a ton during the spring. Zach Nifong (Laney) has a great shot to advance to the state meet as an individual, even if Gower or Boyles doesn't make it with a team.

Mideast

Teams to watch: What an incredibly competitive region, even if the teams are not quite as dominant state-wide as they have been for the past few years. Panther Creek and Broughton are nearly dead even on paper, and the same can be said for Millbrook and Green Hope. With the best front-runner of all of them, Cary also has a good chance to advance. It looks like 5 teams for four slots, and as usual someone goes home disappointed from the 4A Mideast. Also, keep an eye on East Chapel Hill, where the boys are looking to duplicate the recent success of the girls team.

Individuals to watch: Bakri Abushouk (Cary) is clearly the preseason favorite, with a PR that is 25 seconds faster than the nearest competitor. Sam Roberson (Broughton) and Jacob Sears (Panther Creek) are the leaders of the two strongest teams in the region. Sam Miner (East Chapel Hill) should make the state meet if his team doesn't sneak in, as could Sam Sarakbi (Leesville Road). This region definitely leads the state in the number of top runners named Sam. Chilton Birdwhistle has an awesome name and a sub-10 minute 3200 to his credit; what else does a guy need?

Midwest

Teams to watch: A formerly strong region that is returning to form, the 4A Midwest may have 3 of the top 9 teams in the state (although it is not a deep region at all). Mount Tabor has great depth and tight pack running, and a possible lack of a front-runner will not hurt them in this region. Reagan has a lot of firepower up front, but needs to develop depth to challenge the Spartans. Northwest Guilford is perenially strong but needs overall improvement to challenge for the title here. Southeast Guilford, West Forsyth, Davie, and Grimsley all look very similar, and it should be a vicious battle for the last state meet spot.

Individuals to watch: Craig Engels and Jordan Marsh (Reagan) are a fierce 1-2 punch, with Engels having had a particularly good track season. Carl Walton, Jr (Northwest Guilford) has been a stud on the track, but has he gotten in the miles he needs to rise up the list in the 5K? Josh Copus (Mount Tabor) seemed to emerge as the leading candidate to consistently run #1 for the Spartans. Paul Sidam (Ragsdale) and Eric Royer (RJ Reynolds) are the most likely candidates to advance as individuals.

West

Teams to watch: Ardrey Kell's boys have shown potential for greatness for several years; could this be the year they achieve it? On paper they are better than anyone in the region, but Myers Park is not far behind. Look out for TC Roberson, a program notorious for exceeding expectations and refusing to be held back by graduation. Watauga rounds out what looks like the strongest top 4 of any 4A region, with the young Hough program appearing to be on the outside looking in.

Individuals to watch: Cole Rains (TC Roberson) is the class of the field here, and rumor has it his hunger for both individual and team success has driven his training this summer. Thomas McLean (Ardrey Kell) has a strong returning time, but teammates Madden Souder and Parth Shah ran better during track season. Peter Vandenberg (Watauga) and Jack Matkins (Myers Park) also have strong resumes. Jordan Wallace (Hough) and Alex Craig (South Caldwell) are the best individual returners not on the top 4 teams, but neither put up big track times; the race for the five individual spots could be wide open.

Boys Stats

4A Boys Team Rankings

(You can sort these by region, county, or conference)

Note: our team rankings are a dynamic virtual meet, meaning that they are different depending on the teams included. This ranking is not just pulled out of the overall list of teams used for the Top 25. It is a separate ranking considering only 4A teams.

4A Boys Individual Rankings

(You can sort this by grade as well as the dimensions above.

Be sure to click on "Returners? Yes" if you sort beyond this one.)

Boys Individual Rankings Sortable by County

(Choose county first, then 5000m, and don't forget "Returners? Yes")

4A Boys Team Ranking by 3200 Times

(Must have 5 returning runners with 3200 times from Spring 2011 only)

Girls Preview

East

Teams to watch: West Johnston is the preseason favorite to win this region, with Terry Sanford second on paper. Watch out for Pinecrest's girls, though, as they had tremendous depth in the 3200 during the spring (check out the 3200 team rankings below). New Hanover rounds out a pretty clear-cut top 4, although Laney is within striking distance if they had a good summer.

Individuals to watch: Shelby Howell (New Hanover) cemented her star status with an 800 state title, and she is the girl to beat here. Lauren Pollard (West Johnston) had a great spring, too, and she joins Dakota Foskey in the hunt for both team and individual glory. Jennie Cunningham (Pinecrest) and Tres Lesane (Terry Sanford) are top-5 candidates. Esther Fisher (JH Rose) and Charity Lackey (Southeast Raleigh) are the best girls not on one of the top teams.

Mideast

Teams to watch: Green Hope is absolutely dominant at the regional level, and is a real threat to score 20 points here (which would be incredible). Broughton is a distant second, but still very strong, with a consistently competitive East Chapel Hill close behind. Apex looks like the fourth team on paper, but don't count out a Millbrook team with the best runner in the region (and possibly the state).

Individuals to watch: Sammy George (Millbrook) might be the only thing standing between Green Hope and a sweep of the top 5 places in this region. Of the Falcon girls, Lauren Colberg had the most improvement this spring, but really Jessica Rossabi, Erica Amatori, and Maura McDonnell are all contenders. Megan Sullivan (Broughton) was sub-19 last fall, and teammate Mattie Blue has a monster spring on the track. Brianne Boldrin (Athens Drive), Pegah Kamrani (East Chapel Hill), Samantha Cook (Sanderson) and Dana Cox (Panther Creek) all look like they have a chance to get out of the region individually.

Midwest

Teams to watch: Unquestionably the weakest of the four regions coming into the season, this will still be an intensely competitive team battle. Mount Tabor, minus their returning number one, comes back to the group and could be passed by a Reagan team that added a strong runner. Northwest Guilford is always strong by the end of the season, and upstart Davie has their eyes set on a second straight state meet berth. Those seem to be the top 4 teams, but their order is anyone's guess, and the West Forsyth girls would like to crash that party.

Individuals to watch: Anna McBride (Davie) broke though in the 3200 this spring and is poised to compete for the regional title, but Austin Vass (Page), Alyssa Torres (Northwest Guilford), and Kristen Henson (Reagan) are all tough competitors. Teammates Jennifer Noguiera, Kasey Skinner, and Kathryn Hayes (West Forsyth) are contenders to advance individually, along with Tori Churchill (Grimsley).

West

Teams to watch: Ardrey Kell would seem like a strong favorite, based on their status as a potential top 5 all-time team, but then there's the little problem of having to get past another potential all-time great in Watauga. Those two teams are loaded, and this could be a titanic battle! Myers Park is not nearly as far back as some people think, and they could sneak into the mix for the title as well. After those three, there appears to be a drop-off...but don't rule out the possibility of TC Roberson bridging that gap and making the West the strongest region by far. Lake Norman and Providence both have a history of success, and Providence has a crop of new runners making some noise.

Individuals to watch: West is best when it comes to individual strength, too. Defending state champ Darby Middlebrook (Watauga) faces a tough foe in Kaitlin Kramer (Ardrey Kell), and Brooke Gordon (TC Roberson) will be close behind if not right there with them (I love how aggressively she runs). Sydney Foreman (Ardrey Kell) may move into the top group on the heels of a 10:56 for 3200 during track season, and Hannah Barbour (Watauga) is top-5 quality as well. Madelin Talbert (South Mecklenburg) is one of the most underrated runners in North Carolina--she ran 5:02 this spring!--and will almost certainly lead the individual qualifiers from this region. Keep your eyes out for newcomers Larissa Wood (AC Reynolds) and Sonja Payerpaj (Myers Park); I don't know if either one is running cross country, but both broke 12 for the 3200 this spring.