The North Carolina Independent Schools Athletic Association, NCISAA, is headed for Hagan Stone Park this Friday. The large private schools will run in the morning and then the 1A/2A schools will hit the course right around noon. Here’s a look at the day’s schedule:
8:45 am – Course Walk & 3A Coaches’ Meeting
10:00 – 3A Girls Race
10:45 – 3A Boys Race
11:30 – 3A Awards
11:15 AM – Course Walk
Noon – 1A/2A Coaches’ Meeting
12:30 – 1A/2A Girls Race
1:15 – 1A/2A Boys Race
2:00 – 1A/2A Awards
In the 3A races, the team favorites are also the defending champions. Charlotte Latin’s girls are primed and ready to take their 3rd straight title, while the Durham Academy boys are looking for winning their 2nd in a row.
The individual titles look also look to have clear-cut favorites. Thomas Graham of Cary Academy, a sophomore, won last year in dominating fashion and hasn’t let up during this season. Thomas has already run 15:39 on the Hagan Stone course, this a week after he ran 15:15 at the WakeMed Soccer Complex. On the girl’s side, the only thing that could stop Wesley Frazier would be herself. Ravenscroft’s super-frosh is ranked among the top-10 individuals in the nation. She has set course records this year at WakeMed, 17:10; UNCW, 17:05; & Hagan Stone Park, 17:42.
A look at the 3A Boys Race:
Behind Thomas Graham should be the Ward brothers, Carl & Fred, of Durham Academy. These two were not running at full health last year, but have run very well this season. Tim Gruber of Cannon School was the individual champion at the CISAA Conference Meet in a fine time of 16:19, running completely alone. These 4 look to be the top 4, then behind them there may be quite a battle.
Another athlete with the talent to run at the front is Charlotte Country Day’s Scott Foy. However, Scott has been injured over the month with an Achilles issue. Word is that Scott just began running last week, but is going to give the state meet a go. Scott has run 15:51 on the track, but he’s a real question mark heading into this week.
Durham Academy’s boys look to be the clear favorites with 3 athletes ranked among the top 6 (4 in the top 13) and they are the defending state champs. There look to be 3 teams behind DA that could be in a battle for 2nd place overall. As I said previously, Scott Foy hasn’t run in a month, but is planning to help CCDS bring home a 2nd place. Providence Day’s boys have improved all season and are currently ranked #2 in the Coaches Poll, but they didn’t look great at the CISAA Conference Meet. They will have to have their pack move up together which they didn’t do at conferences. Finally, Cary Academy is most likely going to get 1 point. Then at the TISAC meet, they had 6 guys from 17:56 to about 18:07. That is more depth than they have showed all season . . . does Coach Hall have them peaking at the right time?
NCRunners.com Team Predictions:
1) Durham Academy
2) Charlotte Country Day
3) Providence Day
4) Cary Academy
5) Charlotte Latin
6) Forsyth Country Day
7) North Raleigh Christian
8) Cannon School
9) Wesleyan Christian Academy
10) Charlotte Christian
11) Greensboro Day
12) Ravenscroft
13) Christ School
14) Asheville School
15) Covenant Day
16) Hickory Grove Baptist
Sleeper: Charlotte Country could be an easy #2 if things go right for them
NCRunners.com Individual Predictions for All-State:
1) Thomas Graham, Cary Academy
2) Fred Ward, Durham Academy
3) Carl Ward, Durham Academy
4) Tim Gruber, Cannon School
5) Erik Kraus, Durham Academy
6) Chase Shermer, North Raleigh Christian
7) Reed Payne, Providence Day
8) Drew Thompson, Wesleyan Christian
9) Scott Foy, Charlotte Country Day
10) Michael Cunningham, Durham Academy
11) Jacob Dordick, Providence Day
Sleepers: Michael Cunningham, Scott Foy, and Reid Palmer (CCDS). Reid was All-State last year and has potential to finish as high as 6th.
A look at the 3A Girl’s race:
The Charlotte Latin girls are looking very good, just as they have at this time the last 2 years. With two new freshmen, the Latin girls simply keep reloading. Haylee Dawe has led this team all year and looks like a near lock for 2nd place in the meet. Haylee is coming off a new CISAA Conference Record, running 18:30 by herself at McAlpine. Behind her she has plenty of talent, as the Latin girls have all 5 scorers ranked among the top 12 by time. That’s very impressive and even more so when you realize that none of them are seniors. YIKES!
The most improved team has to be the girls from Ravenscroft. With Wesley running upfront and Lexy Bader also running near the front, this is a dangerous team. They are also loaded with freshmen who have been improving all season. They will need to run faster at their 4 and 5 spots if they want to grab a trophy as these girls are just under 22:00.
The Providence Day girls beat Charlotte Latin early in the season but lost one of top 3 girls during the season, so have had to count on their depth. Katie Lonergan has really stepped up from her 20:50 a year ago and currently has the 4th fastest time in 3A. They will need Maggie Gigler, their #2 to nab an All-State place as well.
The battle for 4th should be interesting as the Asheville School girls just popped onto the scene with their win over Asheville Christian School at the CAA Conference Meet. Forsyth Country Day has been running consistent all season and are led by Hollis Lineberger who has plenty of experience. Finally, Cary Academy always shows up with it counts and will need their 1-5 spread to stay tight.
The obvious individual favorite is Wesley Frazier who I fully expect to break her own course record, which she has set 2 times already this season. Haylee Dawe has run extremely well and deserves a 2nd place finish this season. The next spot is going to be an interesting battle. Katie Lonergan of Providence Day, 8th grader Eliza Dekker of Durham Academy, and Lexy Bader of Ravenscroft look to be the next 3. Then expect another battle right behind them for the next few spots.
NCRunners.com Team Predictions:
1) Charlotte Latin
2) Providence Day
3) Ravenscroft
4) Forsyth Country Day
5) Asheville School
6) Cary Academy
7) St. Mary’s
8) Greensboro Day
9) Cannon School
10) Durham Academy
11) Charlotte Country Day
12) Covenant Day
13) Hickory Grove Baptist
14) Charlotte Christian
15) Wesleyan Christian Academy
16) Salem Academy
Sleepers: Asheville School & Greensboro Day
NCRunners.com Individuals Predictions for All-State:
1) Wesley Frazier, Ravenscroft School
2) Haylee Dawe, Charlotte Latin
3) Katie Lonergan, Providence Day
4) Eliza Deker, Durham Academy
5) Lexy Bader, Ravenscroft
6) Hannah Smith, Charlotte Latin
7) Maggie Gigler, Providence Day
8) Ally Finical, Charlotte Latin
9) Kaitlyn Lingard, Greensboro Day
10) Kameron Spence, Charlotte Latin
11) Sarah Bankhead, Greensboro Day
Sleeper: Kameron Spence who ran 18:36 last year, ran best race of the season last week, hitting 19:41
The 1A/2A races should be quite competitive and expect some equally fast times. Small schools does not mean less talent. All season, these teams and individuals have performing at very high levels and mixing it up with some of the best among the 3A schools.
Asheville Christian’s girls team is looking to win their 2nd title in a row and have looked to be the top team in this division all season. On the boy’s side, Fayetteville Academy has a very strong top-4, but hasn’t had the #5 to match them. Will they find him for this meet? In the NCRunners.com rankings, based on times from this season, Fayetteville Academy scores 55 points and Asheville Christian Academy has 56. This is going to be a real exciting boys race with every single spot really important.
The girls individual and the boys individual races are going to be fast and competitive. Look for a few to challenge early and a winner to distance themselves from the rest by the last 600 meters.
A look at the 1A/2A Boys race:
So the team battle looks to be a tight one between Asheville Christian Academy and Fayetteville Academy. Both of these teams are traditionally solid and there is plenty of experience on both sides. FA is led by Robert Maughan, who has been racing at an elite level since he was a 9th grader. If Fayetteville Academy’s 5th man steps up and runs around 18:00, it’s all over, they’ll win.
Asheville Christian has a much tighter pack, with their 1-5 separated by about 1:00. A lot may depend on just how many people separate ACA’s #5 and FA’s #5. This is a real tough one to call!
The individual race could be a very fast one. Scott Morgan of Calvary Baptist threw down a nasty 15:44 at the Greensboro Invitational running with the big boys. Scott battled it out 
with Thomas Graham and some of the finest the public schools have to offer. Bobby Mintz then showed up a week later and ran 15:58 to win the Hagan Stone Classic by 2 seconds. Robert Maughan has proved over the years that he isn’t going to back down from anyone, so I look for these 3 to push each other throughout the first 1.5. That’s where I expect the gaps to begin and where I believe Scott Morgan will pull away for the win. Don’t be surprised if the top individuals in this race run pretty close to the top 3 in the 3A race.
NCRunners.com Team Predictions:
1) Fayetteville Academy
2) Asheville Christian Academy
3) St. Davids
4) Carolina Day
5) Fayetteville Christian
6) Spartanburg Day
7) Cary Christian
8) Cape Fear Academy
9) Gaston Day
10) Gaston Christian
11) Shannon Forest
12) Caldwell Academy
13) Westminister Catawba Christian
14) Village Christian Academy
15) Southlake Christian Academy
16) Metrolina Christian
17) O’Neal School
18) Rabun Gap
19) United Faith Christian Academy
Sleeper: St. Davids could move up for 2nd, just a gut feeling
NCRunners.com Individual Predictions for All-State:
1) Scott Morgan, Calvary Baptist
2) Bobby Mintz, Cary Christian
3) Robert Maughan, Fayetteville Academy
4) Trevor Sleight, Carolina Day
5) Josh Crawford, Fayetteville Christian
6) Carl Ivarsson, Fayetteville Academy
7) James Dawson, Fayetteville Academy
8) Aaron Stroud, St. Davids School
9) Lawson McDonald, Asheville Christian School
10) Josh Thornburg, Asheville Christian School
11) Cameron McMillan, Carolina Day
Sleeper: Trevor Sleight of Carolina Day hasn’t really been tested, what can he do?
A look at the 1A/2A Girls race:
Asheville Christian’s girls look to be the clear favorites headed into this meet. A win would give them their 2nd straight. Whitney Thornburg is the team leader and will be at the front of the race with a great chance to win.
The battle for 2nd place is going to be a close one. There looks to be 3 teams who will be fighting it out for this spot: Cary Christian, Fayetteville Academy, and Village Christian Academy. Cary Christian is led by a pair, Tiffany Hagan and Aundrea Holmes, who have run 19:54 and 20:11 this year. These two need to beat the #1 runners from both Fayetteville Academy and Village Christian to help secure a 2nd place overall. Both Village Christian and Fayetteville Academy need to improve at the number 4 and 5 spots in order to mix it up with Cary Christian.
The individual title is going to be a fun one. Caitlin Selle of Westminister Catawba has had a great career and has continued to run well this season. Her season PR is 19:41 which came at Hagan Stone in early October. Ahead of her, based on personal best from this season, are Whitney Thornburg of Asheville Christian and Taylor Dunn of Caldwell Academy. Taylor Dunn is the defending champion and Caitlin finished 2nd to her last year. Whitney was 4th but has been running better than last year. Finishing in 3rd last year was Bethany Spano of SouthLake Christian who hasn’t run similar times to the past, but has the potential to finish at the top. Spano won the state title as an 8th grader just 3 years ago. The only other sub-20:00 runner in the field as of this year is Tiffany Hagan of Cary Christian who is going to fighting for every spot to help her team to a team victory.
NCRunners.com Team Predictions:
1) Asheville Christian Academy
2) Cary Christian
3) Fayetteville Academy
4) Village Christian Academy
5) Caldwell Academy
6) St. Davids
7) Shannon Forest
8) Southlake Christian
9) Carolina Day
10) Cape Fear Academy
11) Westminster Catawba
12) Gaston Christian
13) O’Neal School
14) Gaston Day School
15) Spartanburg Day School
NCRunners.com Individual Predictions for All-State:
1) Whitney Thornburg, Asheville Christian
2) Taylor Dunn, Caldwell Academy
3) Caitlin Selle, Westminister Catawba
4) Tiffany Hagan, Cary Christian
5) Bethany Spano, Southlake Christian
6) Kristen Stephenson, Village Christian
7) Aundrea Holmes, Cary Christian
8) Laura Floyd, Fayetteville Academy
9) Melissa Garrett, Carolina Day
10) Maggie O’Hara, St. Davids School
11) Sarah Stewart, Fayetteville Academy
Sleepers: Bethany Spano & Laura Floyd
