Providence Invite Preview: Libby Davidson Returns to McAlpine

Providence Invitational

Virginia's Libby Davidson had a lot of success racing in North Carolina last year, nowhere more so than at McAlpine, where she qualified for Foot Locker Nationals.


The founders of the Providence Invitational never thought their meet would end up being one of the true monsters of the North Carolina invitational schedule, but that's exactly how it has worked out. The combination of the early-morning start and the fast McAlpine course has apparently resonated with coaches around the state, and even into surrounding states, because this is now one of the biggest and most competitive meets of the fall season. It's also one of the hardest meets to preview, because there are so many potentially confounding factors: some teams are not racing all-out at this point, some teams may be racing hard but have trained through, some teams may be holding out key athletes, etc. In a way, that's the best part of this weekend: it's all about the teams and individuals that surprise us, one way or the other.

NOTE: race assignments on the meet webpage are listed as "suggested," so by following that it's possible a team might be mentioned in the wrong race below.


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Championship Girls Race

Teams to Watch

This race is a good example of why virtual meets can be both valuable and frustratingly inaccurate. They are a great way to compile data and you can learn a lot from one, but they also can't account for all the nuances and variables that go into an actual competition. When you see something like the Riverside (SC) girls being scored slightly ahead of US #17 Green Hope, you have to figure out what's behind that. On the one hand, RIverside's times might be inflated from running on a controversial course last year. On the other hand, Green Hope has a reputation for holding back in early-season races (specifically, for pacing the first 2 miles and then turning it loose over the final 1.1). Could those two factors cancel out and mean that the virtual meet is accurate? We won't know until Saturday morning, but it will be fun to find out!

One thing you can trust the database on: after those two teams, there is a BIG drop-off to the next group. That doesn't take away from the teams chasing 3rd place, though; in fact, three of the top 10 returning teams in North Carolina are in that group. Providence is on their home course, and they usually have some "new blood" that contributes early, so this will be a good chance to see if the Panthers are as good as advertised. We should also get a good look at the South View girls, although its unlikely that we'll get to see the best from Marvin Ridge (they usually hold back at this meet). Factor in Hilton Head (SC) and E.C. Glass (VA) and you have a really competitive battle for the remaining spots in the top 5. Reagan ran well at their county meet on Wednesday, and that team could verify its credentials as top 25 in the state with another strong performance here.


Athletes to Watch

Foot Locker finalist Libby Davidson (E.C. Glass) is the headliner of this race, and if she's had a good summer and is feeling healthy there's a solid chance that she will dominate this race. The next two girls in the virtual meet, Elly Henes (Green Hope) and Alexa King (Marvin Ridge) may not even run based on their school's past history, and if they do run they will be asked to pace their teammates for at least a portion of the race. That could leave a pair of Riverside (SC) runners, Cate Ambrose and Ashley Fallow, to lead the chase pack. Kiley Aymor (Ardrey Kell) should be able to run with those two, and maybe her teammate Josie Jordan as well. When last we saw Holly Bailey (Lake Norman), she was struggling through track season while battling a knee injury - it would be great to see her healthy and running well this weekend. It will also be interesting to see how Carrboro looks without their two graduated big guns from last year. Finally, we will all get to see the newest Green Hope Falcon in action, meaning Puerto Rican import Alessandra Rodriguez (who broke 2:20 for the 800 as an 8th-grader).


Championship Boys Race

Teams to Watch

Broughton and Hilton Head (SC) finished 2nd and 3rd in last year's meet, and then both teams went on to achieve greatness. The Caps took home their 4th straight NCHSAA 4A team title, while the Seahawks claimed the SCHSL AAA crown. Both teams have strong returning squads and both had very good team results during this past track season. If both teams race hard, this comes down to which had a better summer. Mount Tabor is rated nearly equal to Broughton, so they could be right in the mix for the team title; the Spartans looked very good in winning the Forsyth County Meet earlier this week, even with one of their top runners sitting out. Weddington is loaded with talent this year, although the Warriors tend to start a little slower than some other teams. Behind those 4 teams there might be a bit of a drop-off (although you never truly know when it comes to the first big meet of the season). The second tier of teams will still be very interesting to watch, especially for North Carolina running fans: teams like Providence, Green Hope, and Jordan all have competitive regional battles looming in October, and a strong team performance here could be a springboard to success later.



Athletes to Watch

Is it a coincidence that each of the four top teams mentioned above also has a top individual? Broughton is led by Jeremy Brown, the only returner in the Carolinas to have broken 15 minutes last fall. That doesn't guarantee that he will be able to get away from two of South Carolina's best, Ben Gilman (Hilton Head) and Avery Dominick (Dutch Fork), both of whom have PR's under 15:15. If all three are healthy and ready to race, they should separate from the rest of the field. It's the chase group that could be really crazy (and entertaining), with runners like Kenny Kneisel (Mount Tabor), Mitchell Resor (Weddington), Alex Cornwell (Hickory Ridge), and Zachary Marchinko (Jesse Carson) all having been prominently featured in our season previews. Keep an eye on Mount Tabor's Ian Foley and Nelson Russ, who went 1-2 in their county meet this week, as well as Taylor Scarborough (Cherokee GA) - that's where the real racing could start.



Open Girls Race

Gray Stone Day is the favorite to win the 1A title this season, and they will get a chance to compete with larger schools in this meet. In particular, they can use North Lincoln as a measuring stick, as the Knights are expected to be contenders for the top 5 in 3A. North Lincoln is led by Madeline Sides and Gray Stone by Annie Habeeb, and those two individuals are relatively evenly matched. Both will likely be behind Jaeden Phelix (Piedmont), who could be in the top 25 of the championship race but will be a contender to win this own. Mariah Howlett (Lake Norman Charter) hopes to power her team to a positive start with a good finish of her own.


Open Boys Race

North Lincoln is the top-ranked team that's slated to appear in this race, and their #1 runner Austin Hilburn should be an individual contender. The most entertaining aspect of this race, though, is the first battle between two aspiring 1A powers. Walkertown actually leads the current NC team rankings (admittedly, they aren't very accurate with so few meets in the database, but still), while Gray Stone Day wants to get back on the podium in November. Walkertown also has an individual contender in Matthew Rogers, who will have his hands full with Hilburn. Watch out for Haywood Ferguson and his South Mecklenburg team here, as well.


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