Girls Preseason Countdown: Complete from 1-30

NC 2015 XC Preseason Countdown
Jeff George

26. New Hanover

The Wildcats have been consistently in the 30th-40th place in the final all-classes cross country rankings the last few years, but there are a few reasons to think this could be the year they break into the top 30. Bella Idol and Waverly Leonard had solid individual track seasons, and the team showed a commitment to long-distance development by getting lots of returning runners into the 3200 during the spring. This is also a veteran team - 3 seniors and 3 juniors in the top 6 - which should provide steady leadership and competitiveness.

  • Returning Ranking: 28th
  • 3-Year Improvement Rating: 27th
  • 5-Year Improvement Rating: 28th
  • Spring 3200 Team Ranking: 13th
1) Bella Idol 20:00.00 122
2) Jane Moody 20:09.00 139
3) Charlotte Jones 20:49.00 244
4) Waverly Leonard 21:04.00 300
5) Katherine Flynn 21:06.15 305
Average Time: 20:37.63 Total Time: 1:43:08.15 1-5 Split: 1:06.15
6) Paige Pottle 21:59.44 486
7) Taylor Woodward 22:24.05 578


27. Sanderson

This is the perfect example of a team that would have been Honorable Mention based only on results from last fall, but moved up with better-than-expected spring track results. Putting 5 girls at 13 minutes or faster in the 3200 shows an emphasis on development through track season, and that could pay off big-time this fall (if kept up through the summer, that is). The 2015 season will be determined by the leadership of the 4 seniors in the top 7 (including 3 in the top 5) - if the Spartan class of 2016 wants this team to be special, it is within their grasp. History is not on their side - the Improvement Rating metric does not like Sanderson very much - but the returning depth is solid. Returning their entire top 7 from 2014 helps a lot, too!

  • Returning Ranking: 27th
  • 3-Year Improvement Rating: 39th
  • 5-Year Improvement Rating: 39th
  • Spring 3200 Team Ranking: 12th
1) Elizabeth McSoley 19:55.00 113
2) Lauren Ammons 19:59.10 121
3) Catherine Allen 20:38.50 207
4) Elizabeth Coletti 20:51.10 248
5) Erin Mares 21:40.90 421
Average Time: 20:36.92 Total Time: 1:43:04.60 1-5 Split: 1:45.90
6) Laura Gerlach 21:46.10 439
7) Katie Olson 22:27.40 592


28. Millbrook

The loss of returning #1 runner Emily Pettis to Leesville Road definitely hurts Millbrook, but this is still a solid program with a strong history of year-to-year improvement. The Wildcats clearly put more emphasis on the 800 and 1600 than the 3200 in the spring, so their track results may not be a great demonstrator of progress. Depth could be a big issue - the team needs to develop 6th and 7th runners, and could use some competition for the 5th spot as well. There are 2 seniors in the projected top 6 for this fall, which should give the team a balance between leadership and youth. Still, the Wildcats have made a long-term habit of improving and have been in the top 30 for several years despite similar obstacles - and with the potential for 4 sub-20 runners up front, this team can still be very solid.

  • Returning Ranking: 19th (adjusted for transfer)
  • 3-Year Improvement Rating: 28th
  • 5-Year Improvement Rating: 13th
1) Maya Celetti 19:41.60 90
2) Rachel Navarro 19:49.30 102
3) Kaylie Hinckley 20:37.50 204
4) Gabby Sturla 20:48.90 242
5) Anna DePollo 21:54.30 472
Average Time: 20:34.32 Total Time: 1:42:51.60 1-5 Split: 2:12.70
6) Samantha Storey 23:34.10 792
7) Emily Petersen 23:35.39 794


29. Reagan

The Raiders have a stellar 5-year record of improvement, which indicates a strong and ongoing talent base that infuses new depth on a regular basis. With only two seniors lost from last year's team, a very strong rising junior class, and a year under the belts of the new coaching staff, the conditions are right for this team to move up the rankings. Track results weren't great overall, but there were some very bright points - most notably Isabel Zimmermann's 5:18 in the 1600 that could herald a big leap forward for her this fall. If this Reagan team improves at anything close to its 5-year rate, that could produce a 5-girl average in the low 20 minute range, which would put the Raiders on the edge of the top 25 in most seasons.

  • Returning Ranking: 34th
  • 3-Year Improvement Rating: 15th
  • 5-Year Improvement Rating: 5th
  • Spring 1600 Team Ranking: 25th
1) Payton Kilby 20:03.32 126
2) Isabel Zimmermann 20:21.80 163
3) Allie Orgnon 20:58.10 274
4) Lydia Hughes 21:16.70 341
5) Sallie Cook 21:33.80 403
Average Time: 20:50.74 Total Time: 1:44:13.72 1-5 Split: 1:30.48
6) Shelby Rusher 22:29.00 601
7) Morgan Kilby 22:41.60 635


30. Gray Stone Day

In some ways, our Improvement Rating measures how well a program does with the talent it has, and by that measure few teams have done better than the Knights. Five of the last six years, their final top 5 average has been over a minute faster than their projected average using returning runners! The lack of depth in track season is worrisome, but that's in large part because of the team's focus on the 800 rather than the 1600/3200. Gray Stone Day returns a lot of depth for a 1A school, which makes them the favorite to win the title in that classification. Last year brought a bit of a frustrating end for the Knights, but they return their top 6 from that squad, including three rising seniors. I'm betting they're carrying some serious motivation with them in the form of unfinished business, and this team knows this is the year they can really make a splash.

  • Returning Ranking: 30th
  • 3-Year Improvement Rating: 11th
  • 5-Year Improvement Rating: 22nd
1) Annie Habeeb 19:34.10 81
2) Kelsey Kiser 20:28.76 183
3) Laurie Fogleman 20:54.19 258
4) Madison Hale 21:00.94 284
5) Elisabeth Harper 21:26.70 378
Average Time: 20:40.94 Total Time: 1:43:24.69 1-5 Split: 1:52.60
6) Virginia Currie 22:14.37 550
7) Katie Hill 23:41.50 826