One of the last regional qualifiers for Nike Cross Nationals, the Southeast Regional kicks off Saturday morning at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, NC. The forecast calls for nearly perfect conditions: sunny with temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees, with moderate humidity the only negative. Despite having a long, grinding hill run twice (including right up to the finishing straight), the course runs very fast when it's dry and the competition is strong. A top-heavy girls' field and huge group of boys will toe the line with eyes on both team and individual glory: the top two teams will automatically advance to the national meet in Portland, as will the top 5 individuals who are NOT on one of the two advancing teams. In addition, the selection committee can choose four "wild-card" teams from any of the 8 regionals plus California. Part of the fun at these post-season meets is decoding the creative names the teams choose for their running clubs (see descriptions below).
Girls
The top of the team competition looks like a repeat of last year. Tatnall (DE), ranked #4 nationally by the NHSCA, returns to defend their Southeast Regional title from 2010. Fellow advancer and 18th-ranked Green Hope (NC), running as Western Cary, also returns intact to run for a repeat trip to Oregon. Last year's third- and fourth-place teams, Hidden Valley (VA) and Midlothian (VA), are also back (although Hidden Valley lost a lot of firepower from last year's team). The only new team up front is Assumption (KY), ranked 13th in the nation, is a strong third in the virtual meet (below) and therefore has a good chance to advance (although this team is a bit weaker at the 5th runner than the front two squads). Three teams may find themselves battling for the last spot in the top 5: Carrboro (NC), competing as Rock Haven, and Cardinal Gibbons (NC), competing as Diocese of Raleigh, are the North Carolina 2A and 3A state champions, while Blacksburg won the Virginia 2A title.
Individually, it looks like a two-person race up front, and one with a lot of history, as well. Julie Macedo (DE) had a titanic duel with Haley Pierce (DE) at their county meet, which left Pierce collapsing with 150m left and Macedo stumbling to the finish for second place. Although we would love to see a great race, I think I speak for all fans of the sport when I say that I want both of these girls to finish strong Saturday (which would make Macedo an individual qualifier for nationals). Sydney Foreman (NC), running unattached, comes in with a strong 17:50 PR and will have a great chance to advance to Oregon. Behind those two comes a close group of runners dominated by team candidates from Green Hope and Tatnall: Reagan Anderson, Erica Amatori, Lauren Colberg, Maura McDonnell, and Rebecca Salter. The next individual likely to advance is Carolyn Bethel (VA), who is familiar with the course after coming down for Great American in October. Kara Dickerson (VA) also has a good chance to travel to Oregon next week. If Assumption does not advance as a team, then they could put as many as three runners into the national meet individually; if they do upset one of the top two teams, then that would put some of the runners from the previous group through. Keep an eye on Grace Morken (NC), who has simply run to win her last few races and might have a big race left in the tank. Lucy Srour (MD) was 2nd in the 4A state championship to Caroline Guiot (also in this race with her team) on what appears to be a very difficult course.
Guide to team names: Western Cary is Green Hope (NC), Rock Haven is Carrboro (NC), Bethesda Pine Trees is Bethesda Chevy-Chase (MD), Diocese of Raleigh is Cardinal Gibbons (NC), Louisville TC is Assumption (KY), Maintenance Crew is Ursuline (DE), The Force is Charter School of Wilmington (DE), MuDRunners is North Point (MD), Urbana Legacy is Urbana (MD), Franklin County is Oakdale (MD).
(Teams only, does not include individual runners)
Boys
The boys' competition is the opposite of the girls, as last year's two advancing teams are in the race but face an uphill climb to get back to Nike Cross Nationals. Defending champions Midlothian (VA) lost a lot to graduation, and although they have done an admirable job of reloading it appears they will not punch a return ticket to Oregon. Brookwood (GA) also went to nationals last year, and their runners have a better chance to get back this year, but still have their hands full with two teams that did not compete here in 2010. Belen Jesuit Preparatory (FL), entered as Miami Magis, appears to be the strong favorite to win the regional. They dominated the Florida 3A state meet en route to the top ranking in the Sunshine State. With their 5th runner under 16 minutes, they show no obvious weaknesses and will be difficult to beat. The boys from Lexington (SC), the South Carolina 4A champions running under the name CrossOver Athletics, will be right in the mix for a trip to Portland. Both Lexington and Brookwood have strong front fours and a bit of weakness at the 5th runner, so that could be an intense battle for the second qualifying slot. Brentwood (TN) and St. Xavier (KY) round out the predicted top 5 (according to the MileSplit database).
Individually, Daniel Moore (Holy Trinity, FL) won Great American on the same WakeMed course earlier this year, and he is the only runnner in the field with a sub-15 time on his profile. Elliot Clemente, a Foot Locker finalist last year leads Belen Jesuit; he should be hard on Moore's heels, and this could turn into a two-man race up front. Unless someone steps up their game, the next group of runners will be battling for third place, and it could be a great race: the 4th through 14th runners in the race have PR's separated by only 11 seconds. Adam Visokay (VA) should be in the front of that group, and Sam Roberson (NC) lives close by, so he gets to sleep in his own bed and run on the same course where his conference and regional meets were contested. Braden Bruning (MD) and Omar Hassan (MD) were first and second in the 3A state championship; Bruning's 14:51.8 for three miles might be a hint of his potential at McAlpine. Will Templeton (TN) and Connor Sheryak (KY) are strong candidates to advance, as both have sub-15:30 PR's this year. Sage Kosiorek (SC) was second at the 4A state championship, and he ran 9:29 for 3200 a few weekends ago at a tune-up race. Matthew Schwartzer (VA) finished right behind Visokay at the VHSL 3A state meet.
Guide to team names: Wilmington XC is Tatnall (DE), Wickham Road is Holy Trinity (FL), The Force is Charter School of Wilmington (DE), Snellville SC Club is Brookwood (GA), Slicc Eagle XC Club is Brentwood Academy (TN), Ramsey Farm is Salesianum (DE), Potomac is Winston Churchill (MD), Pilot Flying is Bearden (TN), MuDRunners is North Point (MD), Moose Cru is Trinity Prep (FL), Miami Magis is Belen Jesuit Prep (FL), Magic City Slolrusses (my nominee for best team name) is Mountain Brook (AL), Hellions is Christopher Columbus (FL), Diocese of Raleigh is Cardinal Gibbons (NC), DC XC Club is Gonzaga College (DC), CrossOver Athletics is Lexington (SC), Capital Distance Club is Broughton (NC), and Bethesda Xc is Bethesda-Chevy Chase (MD). Tip: don't get Brentwood confused with Brentwood Academy, and don't get the four Trinity schools mixed up!
(Teams only, does not include individual runners)
