Tom Nobles has the opportunity to develop into one of the state's best and lead Green Hope back to the state meet.

NCRunners is counting down the top 25 boys cross country teams in the state, from all classifications, in preparation for the start of the fall season.  The top 3 boys teams will be revealed on August 1st, which is the official first day of practice.  For a more detailed explanation of how these rankings were developed, see this article.

#11: Green Hope

Another program that is regularly overshadowed by the opposite gender at the school, the Falcons are actually the 8th-best boys' program of the NCRunners Era.  This current squad features a developing front-runner in Tom Nobles, who ran 9:45 this spring to demonstrate continued improvement.  As a team, Green Hope was 9th-best all-classes in team 3200 scoring during outdoor season.  Behind Nobles, there is a miniscule :22 split between the 2nd and 7th returner, which means the Falcons have the rarest combination: a strong front-runner AND a tight pack.  That pack needs to shift forward, but if it does, this is a potential top-5 4A team.  

#12: Weddington

It's hard to keep this program down.  The Warriors lost 4 of last year's top 7 to graduation, but here they are just outside the all-classes top 10.  With a 1-5 split of 31 seconds and a remarkable 1-7 split of 34 seconds, this team will be able to overwhelm the middle part of most competitors with their depth.  It appears this squad may lack one Weddington signature of recent years: a top-10 individual.  On the other hand, Ryan Hobbs and Matthew Connor both ran 9:50 this spring, which puts them 5th and 6th among returning 3A runners.  Imagine if they improve into the 16:15 - 16:25 range, and also bring the rest of the Warrior pack with them!  One more sign of overall team improvement: Weddington ranked 7th in the team 3200 scoring during the winter, but improved to 4th during outdoor season.  Stack a good summer (common for this school) onto that progress, and you have a potential top-10 team.

#13: Leesville Road

Although the disparity is not as bad as it has been in some other years, the Mideast is definitely still the strongest 4A region.  The top 2 teams in that region enter the season a little above the next three, which will have to battle for the remaining two spots in the state meet.  Leesville Road (along with yesterday's team, Millbrook) will be right in the thick of that battle.  This is the first team on the list to feature 4 sub-17 returners, and they can follow that with three more low-17 guys.  Talk about a strong pack: the Pride's 1-7 split is less than 1 minute!  The lack of a front-runner could hurt somewhat, although Carson Ellerby showed some signs of emerging in that role with his 4:27 1600 this spring (Lance Bullerwell and Anthony Strapp also had good times during outdoor season).  Right now, it's impossible to predict the last two teams to get out of the Mideast 4A; it will come down to summer training and race-day performance.

#14: Millbrook

Although they don't get much press, this has been one of the 25 best boys' programs in the state, all classifications, over the "NCRunners Era."  The Wildcats look to be very strong up front, with three runners that have a chance to break 16.  There is a significant gap back to their remaining runners after that, although the 4-7 runners are a relatively tight bunch.  Millbrook's success will depend heavily on the health of those top 3 runners, unless they are able to develop someone new to slot into the top 5.  Drew Navarro and Alex Boseman will lead the team, and they both had solid spring times; behind them, though, nothing really jumps out from their outdoor season.  Has Millbrook improved enough to stay in the top 10 in 4A, or did programs that had more track success leapfrog them?

#15: North Lincoln

What happens when one of the best teams in the state loses two of its top 4 runners?  If the team is North Lincoln, then you rely on your top two returners, Andrew Fea and Ryan Shannon, both of whom had some excellent races during winter and spring track seasons.  Then, you hope that the next group of Knights steps up and improves your depth, allowing to meet a new challenge head-on.  That obstacle is a move to the 3A classification, which definitely ups the stakes quite a bit.  One final indication of this program's strength: their returning runners grade out as 5th-best in the new 3A alignment.  This team will be very hard-pressed to win it's third straight title, given the move up, but a top-5 finish would be an exceptional first year in their new classification.

#16: East Chapel Hill

The 2012 season didn't quite live up to very high expectations for the Wildcats, although it definitely did not go badly, as the team finished 8th in the 4A state meet.  One very big positive carries over from last fall: the emergence of Ryan Brady as a legitimate front-runner and potential individual champion.  He followed that up by running 9:28 this spring, and should be poised for a strong season.  Behind him East Chapel Hill has a solid three-man pack, but could benefit from some improvement among the depth runners.  It seems to be a numbers game for the Wildcats: the more runners you get out, the more likely you are to discover new talent.  Add one more quality runner to the top 5, and this team has an outside chance at being top 5.

#17: Ardrey Kell

Remember these guys?  Although they fell back to 14th in the 4A state meet after reaching the top 5 in 2010 and 2011, this is a team that has been in the state meet every year since 2007.  Slightly eclipsed by the huge wave of talent that has come through on the girls' side,  the Knights nonetheless return 5 of their top 6 from last year's team.  Based on that fact and their consistency, you could project them to have a good chance at making the top 10 this year.  The lack of high-level production in the spring season is a bit worrisome: aside from Jason Port, who ran solid 3200 times, there didn't seem to be a lot of improvement.  Of course, this is one of many NC schools that place more emphasis on cross country than track, and so you can expect this Ardrey Kell squad to improve over the summer.

#18: East Rowan

It's hard to find anything not to like about this team.  They have a solid top runner with a strong pedigree, and they have an exceptionally tight 1-5 split.  They even have good depth behind that front 5, helping out in the case of injury or simply a bad race here or there.  Although they fall at 18 in these all-classes rankings, the Mustangs have an excellent chance to finish the season in the top 5 in the 3A state meet.  If you really want to get picky, they didn't produce any truly impressive times during track season.  Nobody can accuse them of inflated times from running at McAnderson Park this year, because those were entered as 3 miles instead of 5000 meters, and so they don't show up in the list below.  This is a program that has been consistently good during cross country season, and this is an experienced group of runners, and that's enough for East Rowan to have high expectations going into the fall.

#19: Jordan

This will be a very interesting team to watch.  They are very impressive up front with Nik Kreiling continuing to show signs of becoming a national-caliber runner (although he definitely needs to become more consistent).  Running mate Daniel Beamer has improved as well, and that should give the Falcons two sub-15:50 runners.  On the other hand, there is a big gap back to their 3rd runner, and another gap between 4 and 5.  There is depth, but this squad really needs to get better from 3 through 7 to contend at the state level.  Moving to the 4A Midwest Regional will help, as Jordan fits in well with the 3rd through 6th teams in that region, giving the team an easier path to the state meet.  This has to be the year if the Falcons want team success: 5 of the top 7 are seniors, including the two front-runners.

#20: Marvin Ridge

Ever since they finished 4th in the NCHSAA 3A state meet last fall, the Mavericks have been somewhat quiet.  That's because they haven't had a standout individual distance runner on the track this year.  They do have two big positives, though: depth (returning 6 runners that went 11:00 or faster in the 3200) and leadership (four rising seniors among those 6).  It's not hard to see how one good summer, driven by seniors that are buying in and motivating the team, could tighten up their pack and propel this team to greater success than their current ranking might indicate.  It would not be wise to count the Marvin Ridge boys out when it comes to finishing in the top 5 in 3A; the last time they failed to do that was 2007, the year the school first opened.

#21: Terry Sanford

It's sometimes hard to get a fix on the strength of teams in the greater Fayetteville area, because there are some flat, fast (and occasionally short) courses that can boost their times beyond what they could achieve on other courses.  One thing is for certain, though: Philip Hall can run.  This past spring, he won 4A individual titles in the 800 and 1600, and he will be the #35 returner in the nation in the 1600.  With his team moving to 3A this fall, Hall should challenge Tanis Baldwin for the individual title.  The Bulldog team behind him is deep, and from 2-7 they are split by only 36 seconds.  Terry Sanford would rank among the top 5 returning 3A teams going into this season, although they will need to get some boys under 17 to contend for the 3A team championship.  This year's squad will also have to shake off a long history of teams from their area underperforming at the state meet (with one notable exception).

#22: Pine Forest

South View coach Jesse Autry told me almost two years ago. "Watch out for Pine Forest, that's a program on the rise!"  Though it took a little while for the Trojans to show it on the state level, he was right (as evidenced by their 7:50 in the 4x800 this spring).  If they can carry that momentum over to a strong summer, this team should make the state meet (although that won't be easy).  800 success doesn't always translate to cross country, however, and Pine Forest does need to cultivate depth and get their 4-7 runners to tighten up on the top three.  That makes this squad a real wild card for the upcoming season, with the possibility of sneaking into the top 10 at the 4A state meet just as likely as getting left out entirely.  It will be interesting to see how things turn out in the resurgent 4A East Region, which has now become quite competitive after some down years.

#23: Cary Academy

Although this school has been better known for individual success over the past several years, the team has done well at the NCISAA 3A level.  This is a veteran squad (three seniors and two juniors among the top 7), and if that leadership leads to a strong summer of training, the Chargers could be a contender this fall.  Josh Mitchell showed signs of developing into a star last fall, although his track season was a bit underwhelming.  If Mitchell emerges as a threat to run top 3 at his state meet this year, then things could come together for Cary Academy; if he doesn't get there until his senior year, though, it could be a year too late.

#24: Lake Norman Charter

The last 3 years have been somewhat frustrating for the Knights: although they have been a very strong program, they have finished third, second, and second again in the the 1A state meet.  This year's squad would like nothing more than to break through and win a state title, but a move to 2A could get in the way.  LNCS returns a balanced team with a strong top 5 and solid depth.  As an added bonus, the Knights have a tandem of #1-caliber runners, which should alleviate the burden of having to lead the team and set the pace every single race.

#25: Watauga

It is almost the exact same story for the Pioneer boys as it was for the girls: the graduation of a very strong senior class, coupled with a shake-up in the coaching staff, could make this a bit of a rebuilding year.  There is young talent, however, as only two of the top 7 returners are seniors this fall, and Watauga has a potential individual star developing in Michael Holland.  This team ranks third in the 4A West coming into the season, and taking this many returners to the state meet would be an excellent step back toward the top 10 in 2014.