Jul 27, 2012

Today's slot holds one of the most decorated squads in the state, and a young team looking to challenge for a championship.

As we approach the start of official NCHSAA cross country practices on July 30th, NCRunners will count down the top 15 teams in our Preseason All-Classes Team Rankings. The list began with the returning 5000 rankings from the 2011 cross country season, and then modifications were made based on improvements during the spring track season, runners lost, and recent program history. Bonus consideration was given to teams with tight packs (at least 3 of the top 5 within 30 seconds of each other) and front runners (under 16 minutes for boys, under 18:45 for girls). Subscribers can view the statistics that were used in the rankings process:

Returning 5000 Team Rankings

Boys | Girls

Returning 3200 Team Rankings

Boys | Girls

Returning 1600 Team Rankings

Boys | Girls

Boys' Preseason #4 Team: Pinecrest

It's a rare event in cross country, but it does happen from time to time, and it applies to Pinecrest this year: their entire top 7 from 2011 is back. Not only that, but you would have to look hard to see anyone in that top 7 who didn't show signs of progress during outdoor track season. Chris Kelly (9:59 for 3200), Beckett Killam (4:32 for 1600), Matt Harmody (10:23), Willim Proulx (10:34), Jacob Troutman (4:42), Will Pearson (4:44)...all of them put up strong times relative to their cross country marks from the fall. Furthermore, this is a program that has won state championships in the past, and it looks like the Patriots are building toward another one. In a year that is fairly wide-open for 4A schools (at least as it seems before the season starts), Pinecrest is one of at least 4 schools that can claim to be legitimate contenders right from the start. It won't end this year, either: of the seven returning Pinecrest runners who ran under 17 last fall, five of them will be back for 2013, as well. If the Patriots have a weakness, it is the lack of a front-runner, but they also have by far the tightest pack of runners on any of the boys' teams, with an astonishing 22 seconds separating the 5K PR's of their top 7 runners. If even five of those seven improve by 15-20 seconds this year, that would make this team very hard to beat.

Pinecrest
1) Becket Killam	16:34.00	57
2) Chris Kelly	16:34.00	58
3) Jacob Troutman	16:39.34	70
4) Will Pearson	16:40.00	73
5) Matt Harmody	16:51.00	103
Average Time: 16:39.67 -- Total Time: 1:23:18.34 -- 1-5 Split: 17.00
6) Javier Bustos	16:56.00	118
7) Willim Proulx	16:56.00	120

Girls' Preseason #4 Team: Carrboro

The girls' teams ranked 2nd -5th have virtually identical scores in the returning rankings, so we are left to use other measures to decipher where each team fits. The Jaguars lost their 2nd and 7th runners from the 2011 team, and the loss of Frankie Perone will definitely hurt, but they have more than enough firepower to defend their NCHSAA 2A state title and push even the best 3A and 4A programs. In addition to Grace Morken, who has the true #1-runner's mentality (always run to win), Carrboro had solid track seasons from rising sophs Helen Morken and Maysa Araba, and Camilla Dohlman (12:04 for 3200) showed signs of serious improvement. The Jaguars return five runners under 20, but then there's a drop-off of over a minute to their returning 6th runner. That means it's critical for them to develop depth in case of injury; if Rachel Burch can regain her 12:18 form from the 2011 outdoor season she could provide needed support for the top 5. This is a program that seems to get a talented new runner just about every year, as well. A good summer and a healthy season could move this Carrboro squad into the conversation about all-time best girls' cross country teams.

Carrboro
1) Grace Morken	18:38.00	12
2) Helen Morken	19:07.00	42
3) Maysa Araba	19:12.40	48
4) Alexa Phillips	19:50.00	105
5) Camilla Dohlman	19:51.00	107
Average Time: 19:19.68 -- Total Time: 1:36:38.40 -- 1-5 Split: 1:13.00
6) Rachel Burch	21:21.00	362
7) Natasha Lopez	22:12.91	573