Aug 11, 2011

Boys Preview

East

Teams to watch: This region did not fare well at the state meet last year, and we don't get a lot of their regular season results, which limits our information. Pamlico has a strong top four back, but needs to develop a fifth runner before they can claim to be the favorite; if they do, they could crack the top 10 at the state meet. Manteo gets the nod in our rankings, and Ocracoke appears to be just behind them if they also develop a fifth runner. Both Northside and Cape Hatteras have a chance to get out of this region and visit Beeson Park, and don't count out KIPP Pride if they fix their depth problems.

Individuals to watch: Blake Hollister (Pamlico) returns as the top indivdual in the region by a wide margin, and he is the 9th-best returner from the 1A state meet. Teammate Michael Emke will have to battle Avery Stone (Manteo) for the runner-up position if everything goes to form. Carlos Delao leads Ocracoke, while Adam Johnson (Dixon) appears to be the early leader for the five individual qualifying spots to the state meet.

Mideast

Teams to watch: The North Carolina School of Science and Math (NCSSM) finished second at last year's cross country state meet, then followed that up with a strong spring season in which they also finished second at the state meet, largely on the strength of their distance runners. They always get a few solid new runners in, and they are the clear favorites in this region (and slim favorites at the 1A state meet, as well). Raleigh Charter grades out as the second-best team, with Princeton's pack not far behind them and Rosewood rounding out the predicted top four.

Individuals to watch: Robert Baraldi and Levi Rolles (NCSSM) are the best returners in the region, and they also top the returning 3200m list (along with teammate Steve Mulherin). Chris O'Brien and Evan Kardon lead Raleigh Charter, while Nick Britt (Rosewood) has his team in the hunt. Scott Mendoza (Red Springs) and Bryan Johnson (Goldsboro) are the top candidates to make the state meet as individuals.

Midwest

Teams to watch: West Wilkes has the best returning team in the region, with a strong front four only held back by lack of depth. If they develop a strong 5th runner, they will enter the conversation for state champion contenders. Bishop McGuinness is close behind with less front-running firepower but more depth. This looks like a great battle for the team title is developing, and both of these are locks for top 5 at states. North Stokes and Gray Stone Day are the third and fourth teams, respectively, and they both have top-10 potential in November. This is a tough region, second only to the 1A West in overall strength.

Individuals to watch: Zach Milsaps (Elkin) leads all returners, and he should be the #1 individual qualifier to the state meet. Teammates J.J. Laplante and Daniel Jones (West Wilkes) are close enough to challenge him for bragging rights. Watch out for big improvement from Cualthi Lozada (Elkin) and Neegbeah Reeves (North Rowan), who both had strong 3200 times in the spring. Sam Williams leads Bishop McGuinness, while Abram Logan (East Wilkes) and Nick Allen (East Montgomery) will compete in a strong field of individuals to sort out which five go to the state meet.

West

Teams to watch: This is the deepest region, with four teams having top-10 potential at the state meet, and there is a championship-caliber team in Lake Norman Charter (formerly in the 1A Midwest). This is the team that appears to have the best chance to match NCSSM, with four returners under 18 minutes. Hendersonville and Hayesville will be very evenly matched as they vie for the second-place hardware. The fourth spot from this region will be hotly contested, as Mitchell, Robbinsville, and Thomas Jefferson are all possible top-10 teams at the state meet. As it looks now, only one of these teams can go unless someone moves up bigtime.

Individuals to watch: Dylan Johnson (Hayesville) is the top returner in the region, and he gets the nod as the likely champion. The next group of runners will be very close to each other: Trent Tatham (Robbinsville), Michael Westbay and Chris Hack (Lake Norman Charter), Robert Vinson (Hayesville), and Dustin Rudisill (Highland Tech). Look for Brandon King (Mitchell) to insert himself into that competition, based on his 3200 time from the spring. Michael Hering of Murphy also showed a lot of improvement on the track, and he will join Rudisill in the hunt for the coveted individual qualifying spots.

Boys Stats

1A Boys Team Rankings

(You can sort these by region, county, or conference)

Note: our team rankings are a dynamic virtual meet, meaning that they are different depending on the teams included. This ranking is not just pulled out of the overall list of teams used for the Top 25. It is a separate ranking considering only 1A teams.

1A Boys Individual Rankings

(You can sort this by grade as well as the dimensions above.

Be sure to click on "Returners? Yes" if you sort beyond this one.)

1A Boys Team Rankings by 1600

(Must have 5 returning runners with times from spring 2011 only)

1A Boys Individual 3200 Rankings

(Times from spring 2011 only)

Girls Preview

East

Teams to watch: Only four teams in this region have a full returning team, at least according to the MileSplit database. Those four seem to be pretty evenly matched, with Manteo appearing as the slight favorite right now. Pamlico and Northside are practically identical in their projections, and Ocracoke should be the fourth team to advance. Dixon has four runners that will be competitive in this region, so if they find a fifth they have a chance, as well. The teams that advance from this region will have a hard time cracking the top 10 at the state meet against the strength of the Midwest and West.

Individuals to watch: Jomecka Deloatch (Northampton East) has the top returning time in the 1A East, and she is a lock to go to the state meet as long as she stays healthy. Marlee Putnam leads Manteo, and teammate Stefany Zafra isn't far behind. The top 10 in this region is littered with individuals, and it might be competitive for the four remaining spots behind Deloatch: Serena Terry (KIPP Pride), Karley Lapointe (Dixon), and Liza Melton (Columbia) are all in the mix.

Mideast

Teams to watch: Some familiar themes here: again the region is very short on returning full teams, and again cience & Math are the top-ranked team (although the girls are not in as dominant a position as their male counterparts). NCSSM and second-ranked Raleigh Charter dominate the top 9 individual places; needless to say, after the front two teams there is a steep drop-off. Rosewood is the the third team and Princeton appears to be the fourth. Once again, these teams will be hard-pressed to compete against the squads coming from the western half of the state.

Individuals to watch: There should be a 3-4 girl front group competing for the individual title, with Sarah Beach (Raleigh Charter) looking to hold off a trio of NCSSM runners (Adele Bernard, Bronwyn Fadem, and Lindsey Orlowski). Mikaya Huf (Goldsboro) and Samantha Wilkins (North Duplin) will most likely lead the individual qualifiers.

Midwest

Teams to watch: In contrast with the previous two regions, the depth and strength of the next two are startling. Gray Stone Day is a narrow favorite here over Bishop McGuinness, and they are ranked 1-3 in the state. County rivals North Stokes and South Stokes will probably battle for the last two advancing slots. Mount Airy is close enough to threaten for a place in the state meet if they can out-work someone in front of them. The top four in this region are all ranked in the top 7 in the state, making the Midwest the strongest of the four 1A regions.

Individuals to watch: There are three strong, evenly-matched runners competing for the individual title, and two of them are safe bets to make the state meet individually: Kirsten Parries (Mount Airy) and Madison Durham (Elkin). Bailey Seach (Bishop McGuinness) will be right there with them as she tries to lead her team to states, and all three of these girls have potential to be top 5 at the state meet. Hannah McBride and Jordan Amos (North Stokes) round out the preseason top 5, while Hunter Latimer leads a close Gray Stone pack. Keep an eye on her teammate, Caroline MacLeod, who led her team in the 3200 this spring.

West

Teams to watch: Lake Norman Charter is a solid favorite in this region, and on paper they are a nearly even match for Gray Stone Day at the state meet. Hendersonville is no slouch, either; the defending 1A champions got past those two for the title last year, and if they can develop a stronger fifth runner they could do it again. Robbinsville is a solid third here, while Highland Tech will have to hold off Hayesville to be the final team qualifier. The top four in the 1A West are all potential top-10 teams at the state meet, mirroring the strength of the Midwest.

Individuals to watch: Sarah Hardin (Lake Norman Charter) has a 20-second advantage over her nearest competitor, and she is the favorite at the state meet as well. Teammate Stephanie Zaino will have to work hard to get past Amber Long (Robbinsville) and make it a 1-2 sweep for LNCS. Elizabeth Lackey and Erin Brooks lead Hendersonville's tight front four (only separated by 40 seconds). Kristina White (Hayesville) made big strides in the 3200 this spring, and she could move into the top 10. Hayden Bates (Highlands) leads the individuals trying to reach Beeson Park.