Jeremy Brown led Broughton to the team title in the 2014 edition of this meet, then had his breakout race on the WakeMed course in late November. Who will emerge as the star of this year's meet?
As I was looking through the fields for this year's adidas XC Challenge, a question popped into my mind that I never thought I would be asking myself: is this meet now the biggest and most competitive WakeMed race of the season? The answer is no, because Great American still draws from a wider range of states, and NXN Southeast is probably right up there too. Still, the aXCC is closing the gap on a yearly basis, and this is clearly the best accumulation of individual and team talent in meet history. Heck, the invitational races here are as strong as many major invitationals in this state, and there is another level above them in the same meet!
This also marks an important turning-point in the season for us: after this weekend, we won't be using returning rankings in any more previews or published articles. That's because the first edition of our All-Classes Rankings come out on Tuesday! It's a good bet that the teams competing at WakeMed on Saturday will play a prominent role in those rankings.
More adidas XC Challenge Coverage
- Meet Page (results from previous years)
- Virtual Meets Hub
- On-site coverage by Jentzen Jones, Mary Ann Magnant, and Doug Hague
Championship Boys
The top tier of teams in this race goes 4 or 5 deep, and it includes 3 potential state champion squads. Broughton is coming off a big win against Virginia competition at Knights Crossing last weekend, and the Caps are currently the best team in North Carolina by a fairly significant margin (according to our database). That gap could increase this weekend as Jeremy Brown and company have a chance to race on a faster course (in 2014, nearly every member of the Broughton top 7 improved noticeably from that meet to this one). The Caps will also have another chance to battle Weddington, currently NC #3 and the top 3A team in the state; the two teams essentially tied back in August at the Providence Invitational, although both were missing key runners. Meanwhile, Marietta (GA) is the defending 6A champion in Georgia and currently ranks 3rd in their home state, but the evidence is that they haven't run on a course this fast yet in 2015. The database says Green Hope is right on Marietta's level this year, which could set up a really interesting battle for 3rd place, but that could be deceptive - using returning results that include a race at Great American last year, Marietta actually grades out as the top team in this meet. Based on this year's results, East Chapel Hill doesn't quite make the cut for the top teams; then again, the Wildcats have only had one major race this fall, and if their depth runners are ready to take a step forward then the top 3 is really strong.
Individually, Jeremy Brown (Broughton) should get a stronger push up front than he did in Virginia last weekend, when he ran away with the title. You shouldn't bet against him, though, especially not on what is his home course for all practical purposes - remember, this is where he broke 15 last November! Mitchell Resor (Weddington) currently tops the North Carolina individual rankings, so expect the two to duel throughout the course in what could be a matchup between two individual state champions. The lead pack should also include Zachary Marchinko (Jesse Carson), who has an excellent chance to break 15:30 here after a strong start to the season; he is joined by Gable Dershem (Cleveland) and Matthew Conner (Weddington) in the pursuit of that goal. Returning times say that there are 3 out-of-state athletes with the chops to hang in the lead pack, as well: Griffin Mackey (Sewickley Academy PA) finished 3rd in the Pennsylvania state meet last fall, and the Marietta duo of Khayvonn Benson and Ben Patterson both have PR's in the 15:40 region (although Carlos Torres was the top finisher for the Blue Devils at their state meet last fall). Connor McDonald led the East Chapel Hill trio of front-runners at Ivey Redmon last Friday, and all three of them have been under 16 minutes in the past.
Championship Girls
The individual battle in this race could be incredible to watch, and it even features a bit of a rematch from earlier this season. 2014 Foot Locker finalist Libby Davidson (E.C. Glass VA) has to be the favorite, and she should be extremely familiar to NC running fans by now after racing here about 10 times in the last 12 months. To get the win, though, Davidson will have to overcome hometown star Nevada Mareno (Leesville Road), who pushed herself over the final 800 of the new, tougher Ivey Redmon course to clock 17:38 US #9. Davidson has already faced off against Jessie Rowley (Riverside SC) once this season, at the Providence Invitational; in that race, Libby held back to run with the pack for 2.5 miles before unleashing her ferocious kick, but Rowley surprised everyone (including herself) by staying close through the finish line. Expect a different pace up front this time, though, as Davidson will most likely be more aggressive as she rounds into mid-season form.
Defending NCHSAA 3A champion Anna Vess (A.C. Reynolds) will certainly be in the lead group as well, and this could be a breakthrough race for her. She hasn't been under 18 minutes due to a variety of circumstances, even though she clearly has that ability level; she ran 18:18 at this meet last year, and the she opened the 2015 season nearly a minute faster than she did in 2014! She will square off against the top 3A returner by time, Lexi King (Marvin Ridge), in what is becoming an interesting rivalry. King has been sub-18, but Vess had won the head-to-head matchups over the last year. Speaking of sub-18 runners, there are two others in this race - Blair Ramsey (Grimsley) and Kayla Holder (Wake Forest) - as well as a host of girls that are hoping for their first 17-minute times.
Riverside (SC) won the Providence Invitational in August, and in so doing they vaulted right into the conversation for potential NXN teams. Those times hold up well enough to rank them as prohibitive favorites in this race - and I can assure you that they can still run better than they did at McAlpine. In particular, last year's SCHSL 4A individual champion, Cate Ambrose, ran 4th for the Warriors in that race, and when she's pushing Rowley at #1 then Riverside (SC) will be even scarier. The only team that might be able to threaten them would be Oakton (VA), but it's hard to get a fix on them because their season-opening meet was at 3 Miles instead of 5K. Returning rankings put Oakton in range of the Warriors, but Riverside has improved a lot since the end of the 2014 season; if they run to potential, everyone else will be battling for second. That battle could be INTENSE, too. Leesville Road and Providence both have their eyes on the podium at the NCHSAA 4A state meet, while 3A favorite Chapel Hill wants to stay in the conversation for the state's second-best team. Add in perennial NC power Cardinal Gibbons and Virginia contender E.C. Glass, and you have at least a 6-way fight for the runner-up spot in the team scores!
Invitational Boys
Tanner Sutter and Hayden Blalock have already broken 16 this season for Providence, and the Panthers are the favorites to win this race over Riverside (SC), in what is really a battle between two boys' programs that have been somewhat overshadowed by their own girls' teams recently. Paul Arredondo (Cape Fear) has also been in the 15's this season, and you can add Tucker Cera (Millbrook) and Grant Northcutt (Cosby VA) to that list with their PR's from 2014. That should make for an excellent lead pack, as all 5 of those guys have all-time bests between 15:53 and 15:59! Northcutt's Cosby team is solid, while Jordan and Northern Nash both have enough talent to challenge for spots in the top 3 in team scores, as well.
Invitational Girls
It looks like Noel Palmer (Liberty Christian VA) will be in the Championship race, although her team is listed in both. If she runs here, she will be one of the favorites with her current season best of 18:32. If not, then it could be an easy run for Morgan Lewis (Veritas School), who clocked 18:03 last fall but hasn't run a full 5K yet this season. There should be a sizeable gap from her back to the chase pack, which could include Kayle St. Marie (Corinth Holders) and the Millbrook duo of Maya Celetti and Emily Buzitzky. Another potential top-3 contender is Julia Reicin (Winston Churchill MD), who is looking for her first sub-19 time after a best of 19:19 in 2014. Corinth Holders would love to come away with the win in this race and build confidence for their run at a top-5 finish in 3A this season, but it won't be easy: both Millbrook and Winston Churchill (MD) have enough returning talent to bring home this trophy.
Jeremy Brown led Broughton to the team title in the 2014 edition of this meet, then had his breakout race on the WakeMed course in late November. Who will emerge as the star of this year's meet?