Girls XC Preseason Rankings: #5

<p> <span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Lily Anderson leads a team with the potential to have as strong a front 5 as any team in the state, but depth is a concern.

 

	T.C. Roberson (NC)
	1) Lily Anderson		17:50.00	4
	2) Camille Long		18:44.01	25
	3) Mary-O Soule		19:23.75	72
	4) Anastasia Soule		19:30.00	84
	5) Lauren Hartmann		19:58.00	133
	Average Time: 19:05.15 Total Time: 1:35:25.76 1-5 Split: 2:08.00
	6) Abby Methvin		20:50.05	288
	7) Iris Howell		20:51.89	290

Considering how well the TCR girls ran during the spring, it's a bit surprising that they're not ranked higher in the team 1600 and 3200 (chalk that up to some strong seniors that graduated).  What's not surprising is that the Rams rank among the very best in the state at improving from year to year.  This program won several 3A titles, and has been in the top 6 at the 4A state meet since moving up in 2009 (they finished 2nd that year, then got runner-up again last year).  Roberson lost 2 seniors from the 2013 squad, but will have as many as four seniors in the top 7 this upcoming season - that could bring about a "win now" mentality.  Winning is technically possible, though a repeat of the Rams' second-place finish might be more reasonable.  The database says that the #2 team at the 4A state meet will most likely come from the 4A West this year, so why not this team?  Well, the front 5 is really strong, but then there is nearly a minute back to the 6 and 7 runners, so the team must either cultivate depth or stay healthy.  Lily Anderson is a contender for the individual title, and TCR could have 5 girls under 19 (Lauren Hartmann ran 11:33 in the spring); that combination would make them tough to beat, even for a certain 5-time champion.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 4th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 10th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 10th

• 5-Year Improvement Plan: 15.031 (5th)

• 3-Year Improvement Plan: 16.557 (2nd)