Girls XC Preseason Rankings: #7

<p> <span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Chapel Hill was off the podium at the 3A state meet for the first time since joining the classification in 2008, but a rebound is in the works.

 

	Chapel Hill (NC)
	1) Marija Crook		18:54.00	41
	2) Regan Roeber		19:32.70	90
	3) Anna Passannante		19:37.70	95
	4) Elise Matera		19:48.00	113
	5) Rosie Kerwin		20:00.00	141
	Average Time: 19:34.48 Total Time: 1:37:52.40 1-5 Split: 1:06.00
	6) Julia Perkins		20:05.69	146
	7) Morgan Mann		20:46.00	278

Though the Chapel Hill girls have been in a bit of a rough patch lately, what qualifies as a "rough patch" for them is something that most teams would trade for in a heartbeat.  Over the last three cross country seasons, the Tigers have an average final All-Classes rankings of 10.7, which is down from their 5-year average of 8.8.  Chapel Hill finished 6th in the 3A state meet in 2013, ending a 3-year streak of runner-up finishes, which itself came after a 3A championship in 2008.  This is another team that does not have spectacular Improvement Ratings, but in this case the numbers may be skewed by a 2012 season that saw the team actually regress in comparison to its own returning projections (if you remove that outlier, then the team ranks 8th in year-to-year improvement).  The biggest reason for optimism comes from this past spring, when the Tigers produced very strong results: 5-girl average of 12:20 and 5:32, plus the rise of Anna Passannante as a mid-distance star.  Anna ran 5:13 and returning #1 Marija Crook clocked 5:20, which forecasts a potentially powerful front-running duo for the upcoming season.  Returning #4 Elise Matera also broke 12 minutes, part of the improved depth that Chapel Hill will need to contend for the 3A crown again.  The team was just a few seconds shy of having 6 sub-20 runners back, and it seems likely that they will achieve that this fall along with two sub-19 girls.  It helps that Chapel Hill had only one senior and four sophomores at the state meet last fall (they are projected to have three seniors this year, but the top 3 runners should be back for another go in 2015).  3A is loaded this year, but the Tigers are projected as the third-best returning team, giving them an excellent chance to end this "rough patch" and return to the podium on November 1st.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 8th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 7th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 6th

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 9.169 (11th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 8.981 (13th)