<p>
<span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school's "Improvement Rating." Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team's 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team's ranking. Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>
Chapel Hill was off the podium at the 3A state meet for the first time since joining the classification in 2008, but a rebound is in the works.
Though the Chapel Hill girls have been in a bit of a rough patch lately, what qualifies as a "rough patch" for them is something that most teams would trade for in a heartbeat. Over the last three cross country seasons, the Tigers have an average final All-Classes rankings of 10.7, which is down from their 5-year average of 8.8. Chapel Hill finished 6th in the 3A state meet in 2013, ending a 3-year streak of runner-up finishes, which itself came after a 3A championship in 2008. This is another team that does not have spectacular Improvement Ratings, but in this case the numbers may be skewed by a 2012 season that saw the team actually regress in comparison to its own returning projections (if you remove that outlier, then the team ranks 8th in year-to-year improvement). The biggest reason for optimism comes from this past spring, when the Tigers produced very strong results: 5-girl average of 12:20 and 5:32, plus the rise of Anna Passannante as a mid-distance star. Anna ran 5:13 and returning #1 Marija Crook clocked 5:20, which forecasts a potentially powerful front-running duo for the upcoming season. Returning #4 Elise Matera also broke 12 minutes, part of the improved depth that Chapel Hill will need to contend for the 3A crown again. The team was just a few seconds shy of having 6 sub-20 runners back, and it seems likely that they will achieve that this fall along with two sub-19 girls. It helps that Chapel Hill had only one senior and four sophomores at the state meet last fall (they are projected to have three seniors this year, but the top 3 runners should be back for another go in 2015). 3A is loaded this year, but the Tigers are projected as the third-best returning team, giving them an excellent chance to end this "rough patch" and return to the podium on November 1st.
Important Data:
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2013 XC Returning Ranking: 8th
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2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 7th
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2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 6th
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5-Year Improvement Rating: 9.169 (11th)
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3-Year Improvement Rating: 8.981 (13th)
Chapel Hill was off the podium at the 3A state meet for the first time since joining the classification in 2008, but a rebound is in the works.
Though the Chapel Hill girls have been in a bit of a rough patch lately, what qualifies as a "rough patch" for them is something that most teams would trade for in a heartbeat. Over the last three cross country seasons, the Tigers have an average final All-Classes rankings of 10.7, which is down from their 5-year average of 8.8. Chapel Hill finished 6th in the 3A state meet in 2013, ending a 3-year streak of runner-up finishes, which itself came after a 3A championship in 2008. This is another team that does not have spectacular Improvement Ratings, but in this case the numbers may be skewed by a 2012 season that saw the team actually regress in comparison to its own returning projections (if you remove that outlier, then the team ranks 8th in year-to-year improvement). The biggest reason for optimism comes from this past spring, when the Tigers produced very strong results: 5-girl average of 12:20 and 5:32, plus the rise of Anna Passannante as a mid-distance star. Anna ran 5:13 and returning #1 Marija Crook clocked 5:20, which forecasts a potentially powerful front-running duo for the upcoming season. Returning #4 Elise Matera also broke 12 minutes, part of the improved depth that Chapel Hill will need to contend for the 3A crown again. The team was just a few seconds shy of having 6 sub-20 runners back, and it seems likely that they will achieve that this fall along with two sub-19 girls. It helps that Chapel Hill had only one senior and four sophomores at the state meet last fall (they are projected to have three seniors this year, but the top 3 runners should be back for another go in 2015). 3A is loaded this year, but the Tigers are projected as the third-best returning team, giving them an excellent chance to end this "rough patch" and return to the podium on November 1st.
Important Data:
-
2013 XC Returning Ranking: 8th
-
2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 7th
-
2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 6th
-
5-Year Improvement Rating: 9.169 (11th)
-
3-Year Improvement Rating: 8.981 (13th)