Girls XC Preseason Rankings: #12

<p> <span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Ardrey Kell has a young front 4 and a strong history of summer improvement, but they were unlucky in their regional assignment.

 

	Ardrey Kell (NC)
	1) Kiley Aymor		19:28.00	79
	2) Shelby Foreman		19:31.00	88
	3) Katherine Wilder		20:19.00	171
	4) Delaney Graves		20:21.00	185
	5) Lindsey Wheeler		20:28.00	212
	Average Time: 20:01.40 Total Time: 1:40:07.00 1-5 Split: 1:00.00
	6) Natalie Briggs		20:32.00	227
	7) Annie Britt		20:40.00	256

If past history holds true, then Ardrey Kell's girls will be even higher than this rating.  Although the 5-year wave of superstar runners (Kaitlin Kramer, Sydney Foreman) has been ended by graduation, there is still a solid and very deep group returning.  Track results were solid, but the Knights really excel in the Improvement Rating.  Despite having well-trained returning teams over the last three years (average final cross country ranking of 8.8), this team has improved its 5-girl average by over 36 seconds per year, an indication of a very strong summer training culture.  Based on that, it's not hard to imagine Ardrey Kell having two girls that threaten the 19-minute barrier and another 4 or 5 with a chance to go under 20 minutes.  The only problem: the 4A West is an absolute monster for girls teams, with 5 of them in the top 12 of these rankings (spoiler alert!).  That was the problem last year, too, when the Knights finished fifth; Ardrey Kell's squad will have to fight to get to the state meet, despite the likelihood of having a team ranked in the top 10 in 4A.  One reason for long-term hope: the team's top 4 returners will be back for 2015 (the top 3 are sophomores this year), although there are seniors in the returning 5, 6, & 7 slots.  If the young depth behind those leaders develops over the next two seasons, Ardrey Kell will be a force.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 13th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 15th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 12th

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 16.383 (5th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 12.964 (7th)