<p>
<span style="font-size:14px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 girls teams heading into the fall season. The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school's "Improvement Rating." Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team's 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team's ranking. Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>
Ardrey Kell has a young front 4 and a strong history of summer improvement, but they were unlucky in their regional assignment.
If past history holds true, then Ardrey Kell's girls will be even higher than this rating. Although the 5-year wave of superstar runners (Kaitlin Kramer, Sydney Foreman) has been ended by graduation, there is still a solid and very deep group returning. Track results were solid, but the Knights really excel in the Improvement Rating. Despite having well-trained returning teams over the last three years (average final cross country ranking of 8.8), this team has improved its 5-girl average by over 36 seconds per year, an indication of a very strong summer training culture. Based on that, it's not hard to imagine Ardrey Kell having two girls that threaten the 19-minute barrier and another 4 or 5 with a chance to go under 20 minutes. The only problem: the 4A West is an absolute monster for girls teams, with 5 of them in the top 12 of these rankings (spoiler alert!). That was the problem last year, too, when the Knights finished fifth; Ardrey Kell's squad will have to fight to get to the state meet, despite the likelihood of having a team ranked in the top 10 in 4A. One reason for long-term hope: the team's top 4 returners will be back for 2015 (the top 3 are sophomores this year), although there are seniors in the returning 5, 6, & 7 slots. If the young depth behind those leaders develops over the next two seasons, Ardrey Kell will be a force.
Important Data:
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2013 XC Returning Ranking: 13th
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2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 15th
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2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 12th
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5-Year Improvement Rating: 16.383 (5th)
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3-Year Improvement Rating: 12.964 (7th)
Ardrey Kell has a young front 4 and a strong history of summer improvement, but they were unlucky in their regional assignment.
If past history holds true, then Ardrey Kell's girls will be even higher than this rating. Although the 5-year wave of superstar runners (Kaitlin Kramer, Sydney Foreman) has been ended by graduation, there is still a solid and very deep group returning. Track results were solid, but the Knights really excel in the Improvement Rating. Despite having well-trained returning teams over the last three years (average final cross country ranking of 8.8), this team has improved its 5-girl average by over 36 seconds per year, an indication of a very strong summer training culture. Based on that, it's not hard to imagine Ardrey Kell having two girls that threaten the 19-minute barrier and another 4 or 5 with a chance to go under 20 minutes. The only problem: the 4A West is an absolute monster for girls teams, with 5 of them in the top 12 of these rankings (spoiler alert!). That was the problem last year, too, when the Knights finished fifth; Ardrey Kell's squad will have to fight to get to the state meet, despite the likelihood of having a team ranked in the top 10 in 4A. One reason for long-term hope: the team's top 4 returners will be back for 2015 (the top 3 are sophomores this year), although there are seniors in the returning 5, 6, & 7 slots. If the young depth behind those leaders develops over the next two seasons, Ardrey Kell will be a force.
Important Data:
-
2013 XC Returning Ranking: 13th
-
2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 15th
-
2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 12th
-
5-Year Improvement Rating: 16.383 (5th)
-
3-Year Improvement Rating: 12.964 (7th)