Great Outdoor Provision Co. Preview: NCHSAA State Meet

There will be a new 4A girls champion this year, but will it come from one of these three girls or someone else?

 

Morning Session:

2A Boys  |  4A Boys

2A Girls  |  4A Girls

 

Afternoon Session:

1A Boys  |  3A Boys

1A Girls  |  3A Girls

 

Meet Page

(Schedule, qualifiers, box assignments)

 

1A Boys

Individuals to Watch:

Three individuals from the same region, the 1A West, come into the meet as the leading contenders for the individual title.  Dylan Johnson (Hayesville) has the best time of the three this season, and he has won every race they have run together since the NCRunners Elite Invitational.  Zach Boone (Mitchell) has come the closest to beating Johnson, losing by only one second the last time they were at Beeson, while Frank Cline (Robbinsville) has a little bit of ground to make up.  Expect Sam Williams (Bishop McGuinness) to join them in the front, and he has proven he can win races.  Elijah Inuwah (Central Academy of Technology) may also join the group, as he challenged Williams in their regional last weekend.


Teams to Watch:

Bishop McGuinness appears to be a strong favorite for the team title, although it is hard to count out a successful program like Lake Norman Charter.  Defending champion Science & Math is not the same team as last year, but nonetheless enters the meet as the third-ranked team, within very reasonable range of second place.  Mitchell, East Wilkes, and North Stokes could find themselves in a very close battle for fourth place.

 

1A Boys Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

1A Girls

Individuals to Watch:

Malia Ellington (Community School of Davidson) will not be racing due to an amazing opportunity she has been given (see comments for more info), and that removes the favorite from the equation.  Last year's champion, Kirsten Parries (Mount Airy), is the only other runner in the field to break 19 this year; however, she lost to to Carly Kreber (Bishop McGuinness) at the regional (albeit in less-than-ideal conditions).  Sophia Bhalla (Lincoln Charter) has made a big leap forward this year, and she will most likely try to stay in the lead pack.  Hannah Zenker (Franklin Academy) is probably the last girl with a chance to win, although she trails the top three by a little bit coming into the meet.


Teams to Watch:

This race should come down to a two-team battle between Bishop McGuinness and Lake Norman Charter, the defending champs.  Gray Stone Day has an outside chance to contend, but will have to hold off Lincoln Charter just to earn third place.  Franklin Academy will also be in the mix for a spot in the top 3, but only two teams can make the stage.

 

1A Girls Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

2A Boys

Individuals to Watch:

Defending champion A.J. Tucker (Cedar Ridge) is again the favorite, and all signs point to his ability to pull away from the front pack for the win.  That front pack could produce an excellent race for second place, however, with Chris Boyle (North Lincoln), Corbin Boyles (Maiden), Dominic Collichio (Carrboro), and Andrew Fea (North Lincoln) all having season bests within two seconds of each other.  If Ryan Shannon (North Lincoln) is healthy he joins that group, and Tomiwa Olufolabi (Carrboro) could do the same.


Teams to Watch:

Even if Shannon is not fully up to speed, North Lincoln enters Saturday as the favorite.  Cedar Ridge looks like the only team with a legitimate shot to knock off the Knights with a good race, but with a bad race could wind up fighting off Carrboro.  Cuthbertson appears locked into fourth place in this highly regimented race, with Central Davidson and Richlands closely matched for the final spot in the top 5.

 

2A Boys Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

2A Girls

Individuals to Watch:

Defending champion Grace Morken hadn't won a major race during the regular season, although that was mostly due to the quality of competition she faced.  She could lead her Carrboro teammates to what surely would be an unprecedented finish: they come in with the top 4 times in this region.  If Maysa Araba, Helen Morken, and Alexa Phillips are going to be broken up during this race, it could be by either Madison Simmons (Cuthbertson) or Callie Wynn (West Davidson).  Brenna Kate Grass (Swansboro) is a mystery in this race, as she is often untested in the East, but also often on short courses.  She could be anywhere from trailing the lead pack to dark-horse to win the race.  And don't forget about Allie Castro (North Lincoln), who has a PR of 18:51 and a strong pedigree on the track.  This has all the earmarks of a real barn-burner, as the top 7 are separated by only 12 seconds; in the end, expect the elder Morken to out-kick everyone in a mad dash to the line.


Teams to Watch:

You mean, behind Carrboro?  The two-time defending champions in this division are the best they've been over this dominating stretch, which makes sense when you consider that they have 3 seniors in their top 5.  Cuthbertson is the closest of the distant challengers, ranked 70 points behind in the virtual meet (but solidly in second place).  North Lincoln and Swansboro could be battling for third place if everything goes as the database predicts, while Croatan, Pisgah, and Corinth Holders all have good chances at fifth place.  

 

2A Girls Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

3A Boys

Individuals to Watch:

This is the third classification in this preview in which there is a significant chance that the top two finishers will come from the same school.  Chris Reeder and Tima Karginov (Chapel Hill) have the fastest times, and the advantage may have shifted to Reeder now after Karginov led the tigers all season.  Do not count out Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson), though, as he has handled the competition out West without having to go to his maximum effort, and is now ready to take it up a notch.  The second group of runners will either join the lead pack, or form a second one just behind, as they are all looking to break the 16-minute mark: West Carteret's John Crossley (watch out for his 800 speed if he is close to the front at the end), Brad Viles (Chapel Hill), and C.J. Buck (Robinson) all belong here.  If Matt Burns (Weddington) is healthy, he would also be in that group, but he did not run last weekend.  Keep a close eye on Jimmy Hollingsworth (Northern Guilford), who has struggled to return to last year's form, but has the ability to make a big splash in the race.


Teams to Watch:

Once again, Chapel Hill enters the meet as the favorite, and a strong favorite at that.  Cardinal Gibbons has emerged from the middle of the pack in the team rankings to take the second position in the rankings; the silver trophy would be a great achievement after all they lost to graduation from last year's championship team.  At full strength, Weddington would challenge Gibbons for that spot, but if they are missing Matt Burns that pushes them back (although it is a testament to their depth that they can still take third with a good race under these circumstances).  Marvin Ridge, Charlotte Catholic, and East Rowan make up the next tier of teams in this race, with the Mustangs the best bet among the three.

 

3A Boys Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

3A Girls

Individuals to Watch:

It seems likely that Mary Grace Doggett and Sophie Ebihara, teammates on the Cardinal Gibbons squad, will do exactly what they've been doing all season: start out in the top 10 and gradually move forward until they pull away from the field.  If anyone can stay close to that duo, it will be either Natalie Andrejchak (Robinson) or Tristin Van Ord (Chapel Hill), who could end up having an entertaining race of their own if they don't challenge the top two.  Rachel Bartolomeo (Cardinal Gibbons) and Indy Reid-Shaw (Orange) have both been under 19 minutes this season.


Teams to Watch:

Cardinal Gibbons has the top spot in the virtual meet locked down, and it will be a huge upset if they don't win the title.  Conference foe Chapel Hill could be pushed hard by Marvin Ridge for the silver trophy.  Geographic rivals Weddington, Robinson, and Charlotte Catholic could have a fierce battle over fourth and fifth place (and that could result in having all four Midwest 3A teams in the top 6, although they do benefit from running at McAlpine a lot).

 

3A Girls Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

4A Boys

Individuals to Watch:

Bakri Abushouk (Cary) is the clear favorite, and unless he gets sick in the next 24 hours he should control the race and pull away for the win.  It will be interesting to see how William Roberson (Broughton) approaches the race: go with Bakri, or lead the chase group?  I'm guessing it will be the second strategy, as that will allow him to set the pace for his teammates.  Behind him is a close group of runners that are seeking to break through the 15:30 barrier: Wyatt Maxey (Providence), Dalton Nickel (Mount Tabor), Ryan Brady (East Chapel Hill), Nikolaus Kreiling (Jordan), Patrick Sheehan (Lake Norman), and Ian Milder (Mount Tabor).  Keep an eye out for Philip Hall (Terry Sanford), whose closing speed could give him an advantage if he stays on the back end of this group, and also for Sam Miner (East Chapel Hill), who is starting to approach last year's sub-15:40 pace.


Teams to Watch:

Barring some sort of unforseen circumstance Broughton will bring home another 4A championship, this time as a heavy favorite (and they have a ton of talent back next year, too).  Cary is the closest challenger, but the Imps have not been able to muster a serious threat in the races they have had against the Caps this year.  The real excitement in this race could come back in the massive crowds that will cross the line between 16 and 17 minutes, as that is where both Pinecrest and Millbrook will have their runners, and those two teams are deadlocked for fourth place in the virtual meet.  Mount Tabor also has a chance to get into the top 5, boosted by the strength of their two front-runners.

 

4A Boys Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)

 

 

4A Girls

Individuals to Watch:

First of all, a note of sadness, as everyone will miss seeing Darby Middlebrook in this race; the Watauga senior (and 2010 state champ) aggravated a shin injury last week and was unable to finish at her regional meet.  That leaves Megan Sullivan (Broughton) as the favorite, and she has been nearly impossible to beat at the end of races all season.  Pegah Kamrani (East Chapel Hill) has improved so much that she is a legitimate title contender, and she has earned a spot on the "watch list" for the MileSplit National Rankings, along with several other girls from North Carolina.  Sydney Foreman (Ardrey Kell) may not have shown us her best yet this year, and will surely be in the front pack with a chance to win.  Could this be the race where Brooke Gordon breaks through?  The T.C. Roberson senior won the West regional, and could be running with extra purpose with her good friend Darby in mind.  Don't be surprised if Maura McDonnell (Green Hope) hangs around the back of the lead pack, putting herself in position to use her prodigious final burst to contend for the win.  Finally, watch out for two athletes who have struggled at times this year, but have established themselves in the past as serious contenders: Rebekah Greengrass (Panther Creek), and Anna McBride (Davie).


Teams to Watch:

This race is closer than anyone would have predicted at the beginning of the season, but the top team coming into the meet is just who you would have expected.  Green Hope is in position to win yet another team title, but will have to run well to fend off a rapidly-improving Providence team (although the Panthers could be missing one of their top 3 runners due to a scheduling conflict).  Though it looks like those two are the class of the field, there could be an intense battle for third place; Ardrey Kell, resurgent Broughton, T.C. Roberson, Millbrook, and Myers Park all have a clear shot at being in the top 5.

 

4A Girls Virtual Meet

(Using best times this season, does not include individuals)