A.J. Tucker begins his postseason pursuit of a repeat championship Saturday at the 2A Mideast Regional.
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2A East Region (Boyd Lee Park, Greenville)
This is one of the most geographically separated of all the regions, as the prevalence of rivers and sounds in this area of the state makes travel lengthier. We have a good bit of data from the major teams in the region, though, and with that information in hand we can get a good idea of what the races will be like.
Girls Teams to Watch
Swansboro and Croatan are familiar foes at this level, and they will likely find themselves battling for the team title in this race; together they account for 9 of the top 15 runners in the race. South Lenoir seems to have the inside track for third place, but there are three teams that are not too far behind them: Topsail, Clinton, and Richlands. That should make for a very exciting battle for the final qualifying spot to the state meet!
Girls Individuals to Watch
Brenna Kate Grass (Swansboro) is the top seed in this race, and I get the sense that we haven't seen her absolute best yet this year. Savannah Pugh (Croatan) is the only other runner with a time close to hers, although you can't count out Jessica Wallace (First Flight), who ran 18:58 last year but has seemed to stuggle a bit this fall. Kierstyn Horton (Swansboro) is looking to break 20 minutes for the first time this year. There could be an exciting chase pack, containing Mariah Butchko (Swansboro), Jordyn Moore (North Pitt), Heather Cuddington (Beddingfield), and Macy Brinson (Croatan), plus possibly some more runners, as well.
Boys Teams to Watch
This could be one of the most competitive races of all the regions, with three boys' teams that are legitimate contenders for the title, and all three come from the same conference! Topsail won that day, with Swansboro and Richlands ending up in a tie (second went to Swansboro on their 6th runner). However, this is the regional, where the added runners from other teams can have a dramatic effect on the scoring. According to the database, Richlands is the slight favorite going into the meet, with Topsail and Swansboro hard on their heels; who knows how they will actually shake out on race day? There is a pretty significant drop-off after third place, so those teams should feel fairly safe about advancing to the state meet. On the other hand, it appears there could be a four-way battle for the final advancing slot, with Croatan, First Flight, Beddingfield, and South Lenoir all in the hunt.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Nick Pugh (Croatan) is a solid favorite coming into the race, with Mick Stanovsek (First Flight) trailing by 13 seconds based on results sent to NCRunners. Regionals have a way of bringing out the best in runners, though, so this could become a closer battle than the database indicates. Add in Brady Woods (Topsail) and Mason Zeaglar (South Lenoir), both under 17:10, and it gets even more interesting, especially considering that three of the four will be trying to help their teams claim the final spot in the state meet. Aaron Parker (First Flight) ranks fifth entering the meet, just ahead of a large group of runners in the 17:30's: Reid Henderson (Swansboro), followed by a foursome of Richlands runners, led by Isaac Martinez and Dylan Emch.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's 5K times)
Girls | Boys
2A Mideast Regional (Northwood HS, Pittsboro)
Although this is a fairly deep region for the 2A level, it is quite top-heavy, with one great girls' team and two strong boys' squads. There are more full teams (considering both genders) in this region than in the East or Midwest, but the strength is not great from top to bottom.
Girls Teams to Watch
Carrboro has dominated this race for the past several years, and seeing as how this is the best Carrboro team so far, don't expect anything to change. Do expect them to run as a 5- or even 7-girl pack for much of the race, though, hoping to continue developing their 5-7 runners. The battle for second place in the team standings could be very intense, as Randleman and Northwood grade out with almost identical scores in the virtual meet. There could also be a tough fight for the final state meet spot, with a very young Corinth Holders team holding a slim advantage over Cedar Ridge coming into the meet.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Carrboro has the ability to take the top four spots in this race, if they turn everyone loose; Grace Morken is the defending 2A state champion, and she has had Maysa Araba, Alexa Phillips, and Helen Morken right on her heels all season. Arden Vessie (Corinth Holders) will definitely be right with them, and has a chance to win the race outright. Behind those 5, though, the field starts to space out a bit, with Hana Ratcliffe (Durham School of the Arts), Camilla Dohlman (Carrboro), and Maria Vanderford (Northwood) all about 20 seconds apart from each other based on season bests.
Boys Teams to Watch
This race has an interesting statistical anomaly: Cedar Ridge could put all 5 of their runners into the top 10, score 29 points, and still only win by 10! That's what the virtual meet predicts, and that's because 12 of the top 15 individuals in the race are from only two teams. Despite the close score, Cedar RIdge comes in with a distinct advantage over Carrboro, the second-place team, and the Jaguars will have to run very well to take the title. There appears to be a two-team battle for third place between Randleman and Durham School of the Arts, although both of them seem securely in position to advance to the state meet. Corinth Holders and Northwood will be the closest challengers for those final spots, but they have a large hill to climb.
Boys Individuals to Watch
A.J. Tucker (Cedar Ridge) is the defending 2A state champion, and he is the favorite in this race. The Carrboro duo of Dominic Collichio and Tomiwa Olufolabi should run close together in second and third, but could have a hard time staying with Tucker at the end of the race. Jared Buddington (Cedar Ridge) could be right on their heels, but after him there appears to be a bit of a drop-off. Chris Laughlin (Randleman) should round out the top 5, while Hunter Scaggs (Durham School of the Arts) will try to boost his team by getting to the front of a big pack of Cedar Ridge and Carrboro runners.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's times)
Girls | Boys
2A Midwest Regional (Beeson Park, Kernersville)
This is actually a pretty thin region in terms of the number of full teams, although there is quality in the top 4 teams for each gender. There are also some very strong individuals with serious aspriations for next weekend.
Girls Teams to Watch
Cuthbertson's girls are heavy favorite here, and there is an outside chance they could put 5 into the top 10. Piedmont looks like the clear second-place team, but then there could be quite a battle for third place between West Stokes and West Davidson. Central Davidson is within striking distance of those two, and would love to pick one off and head to the state meet.
Girls Individuals to Watch
This could be a great race up front, as both Madison Simmons (Cuthbertson) and Callie Wynn (West Davidson) have run in the 18:50's this year. Behind them, the Cuthbertson trio of Alex Simmons, Megan Kiss, and Jenna Louis will try to occupy the rest of the top 5; Kaitlin Stone (West Stokes) could have something to say about that. Piedmont is led by Michaela Larrison and Nikkita Elminowski, both locks for the top 10 and outside candidates for the top 5.
Boys Teams to Watch
Cuthbertson ranks first in this race, as well, but after them things could get very entertaining. West Stokes, Piedmont, and Central Davidson grade out within 15 points of each other, and it is anyone's guess as to how that will shake out. At least they can be fairly confident in locking down theire spots in the state meet, as the fifth-rated team is over 100 points back in the virtual meet.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Jason Barber (West Stokes) has been running well this season, and he is the favorite in this race. His closest rival will be Danny Sodano (Cuthbertson), who could make it an interesting race. Cole Bernard (Cuthbertson) and Derek Chavis (Central Davidson) enter the race evenly matched, while Joshua Williams (Piedmont) isn't far behind. A passel of Cuthbertson runners in the 17:50's should round out most of the top 10.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's times)
Girls | Boys
2A West Regional (Freedom HS, Morganton)
This is by far the largest and deepest of the 2A regions, with over 20 schools fielding full teams so far this season. There is a lot of quality in this region that should produce a competitive meet, especially on the girls' side, and don't be surprised to see some of these teams do very well at the state meet.
Girls Teams to Watch
North Lincoln's girls are the class of this field, and they have a good chance to put 4 runners into the top 10 (quite a feat against a solid group of teams). Pisgah looks like a clear-cut second-place team, with a tough road to get to first but also a pretty sizeable cushion back to the next squad. There could be a great three-team battle for the final two spots in the state meet; Brevard and Smoky Mountain grade out with almost identical scores in the virtual meet, while Draughn is not far behind.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Allie Castro (North Lincoln) could be a runaway winner in this race, as her season best is a minute faster than anyone else. Teammate Caitlin Potter could make it a 1-2 finish for the Knights, although you can't count out MacKenzie Galyean (Pisgah) or Aly Pagano (Brevard). The first four might string out a bit, but behind them is a group of runners with very similar times, including Sarah Spiro (Smoky Mountain), Cecylia Young (Draughn), and Jada Blake (Lincolnton).
Boys Teams to Watch
North Lincoln's boys might be the most prohibitive favorite to be found in any regional of any classification, even if Ryan Shannon isn't fully up to speed (after sitting out a few races, he was in the lineup for the conference meet but a little off his normal pace). If he is at full strength, the Knights could put their top 5 into the top 7 of this race. Polk County comes in as the second-best team in the region, and it seems likely they will end the day in that same spot, as they have a pretty sizeable advantage over the next teams. East Lincoln should advance to the state meet, but there are three teams in contention for the final spot: Smoky Mountain, East Burke, and Bandys.
Boys Individuals to Watch
The North Lincoln trio of Chris Boyle, Andrew Fea, and Shannon (if healthy) should be in the top four, with Corbin Boyles (Maiden) among them; in fact, Boyles beat all of them head-to-head at the United Way Invitational, and he looks ready to break out in this race. The second pack contains Lee Johnson and Joshua Mosteller (North Lincoln), Tommy Connell (Brevard), and Chop Collins (Polk County), with a few other possible additions.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's times)
Girls | Boys