Defending 1A state champion Kirsten Parries faces a tough challenge in the loaded Midwest Regional.
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East | Mideast | Midwest | West
1A East Regional (Camp Sea Gull, Arapahoe)
This is the hardest region to predict, because we get the least results. The schools in this region are among the smallest and most isolated in the state, and we often see their performances for the first time when the regional rolls around. Many of these schools are not able to field full teams (especially on the girls' side), and often the fourth team to advance from this region is simply the fourth to have five runners on their squad.
Girls Teams to Watch
It looks like there are at least 6 schools with full teams in the region, and that should increase the level of team competition a little bit. Lejeune and Southwest Onslow have the best results, albeit on a three-mile course, and they appear to be the top two squads; it will be an interesting battle between them, as it appears Southwest Onslow is best through four runners, but Lejeune is much deeper beyond that point. Manteo, Northside, Riverside, and Pamlico could find themselves fighting over the final two qualifying spots for the state meet.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Lorin Wales (Lejeune) clocked 19:55 on a three-mile course, making her the individual favorite (nobody else has posted a time within 28 seconds of that). Her teammate Kimberly Danjou could be her biggest competition, while Southwest Onslow has four runners set to finish in the 21-minute range, led by Alex Crow. Ann Marie Manning (Riverside) should be right in the thick of the top 10 as well, but after her it looks like things drop off quite a bit.
Boys Teams to Watch
Once again, the 3-Mile results from Lejeune and Pamlico are very strong, and those two teams are very close to each other (averages of 19:28 and 19:34 respectively). In this race, however, there is a third contender, as Pamlico has averaged 20:11 for a full 5K, running only their freshmen and sophomores. Manteo and Ocracoke are not far behind, and while they are battling for the final state meet slot, they could also pick off any of the top 3 teams that don't run well. Really, based on the limited results we have, any of those five teams could win, and any of them could see their season end as the fifth team in the regional.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Chris Robertson (Manteo) has the best 5K time in the region, but it looks like Caleb Lockey (Southwest Onslow) and Cameron Schtakleff (Lejeune) will be the top contenders based on their 3-Mile times. Max Moore (Lejeune) also has a good shot to climb into the top three. The top-5 team that doesn't advance to the state meet as a whole will probably send at least 3 individuals, as the vast majority of the top 25 runners in the region come from those 5 schools (unless there is a team lurking out there that hasn't posted any results this year).
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's 5K times only)
Girls | Boys
1A Mideast Regional (WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary)
This region is a bit deeper than the East, but still only features a handful of strong teams. Still, with more results to use, we can make much better judgements here.
Girls Teams to Watch
If you are standing at the finish line, your first thought might be that Franklin Academy is on its way to dominating this race (see below). However, they have some depth issues, and it looks like Science and Match is the slight favorite coming in. Raleigh Charter also has the depth to possibly slip past Franklin Academy, but it should be a great race between those three teams. There is a big gap after the top three, and it looks like Princeton will have to fight off Rosewood and possibly Voyager Academy to claim the final spot in the state meet.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Franklin Academy has a realistic chance to take the top 3 places individually; Hannah Zenker and Aly Chura are both well under 21 minutes this year, while Marissa Banks is just above that mark. Banks will face some heat from Sophia Rowland (Science & Math), while Rowland's teammates Kim Ngo and Anne Kelley will find themselves battling Elizabeth Nicholls (Raleigh Charter) for the right to be in the top 5. The top individual that is NOT on one of those top three teams comes in at 14th overall, and it is possible that the individual qualifiers to the state meet could all be above 23 minutes.
Boys Teams to Watch
Science & Math is still the top team in this region, although they are not quite the dominant force they were last year. Behind the favored Unicorns, it looks like the next three places will be hotly contested; Midway, Voyager Academy, and Raleigh Charter are all within reasonable striking distance of each other. Princeton is good enough to threaten for the top four, as well, but could be left out if the previous three teams run well.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Chris O'Brien (Raleigh Charter) is the runaway favorite in this region, leading by just under a minute coming into the meet. Caleb Sanders (Midway) will have to work hard to stay in front of the Science & Math foursome of Josh Rees-Jones, Chris Panuski, Mitch Rees-Jones, and Chatham Ellwanger. Lawton Kariher and Chris Sause (Voyager Academy) will be right in the mix in a very competitive race; places 2-8 in the virtual meet are separated by only 9 seconds!
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's times)
Girls | Boys
1A Midwest Regional (Beeson Park, Kernersville)
This is the largest and deepest of the four 1A regions, and it will be the hardest one from which to advance to the state meet. We also have the most complete set of results on these teams, as they participate in numerous invitationals in their areas, and that allows for stronger predictions.
Girls Teams to Watch
Bishop McGuinness appears to be the team to beat in this race, with a commanding lead in the rankings. Community School of Davidson (competing in the regional for the first time) has the inside track for second place, but they will face a challenge from Gray Stone Day. North Stokes is the fourth of four clearly-defined state meet qualifiers, if all goes according to plan, and this team is close enough to challenge for third or even second on a good day. It looks like there will be a spirited battle for fifth place, but there is a big gap after the first four teams.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Defending 1A state champion Kirsten Parries (Mount Airy) will have her hands full with Malia Ellington (Community School of Davidson), whose team is new to the region. Carly Kreber (Bishop McGuinness) will be tracking them, as well. The action should be strong throughout the top 10, with several runners looking to break 20 for the first time this season: Hannah McBride (North Stokes), Bailey Seach (Bishop McGuinness), and Marissa Lundsten (Community School of Davidson). After that, the depth of Bishop McGuinness comes into play, and the first individual advancer that is not on one of the top four teams could be Alexandra Ott of Walkertown.
Boys Teams to Watch
Bishop McGuinness is the heavy favorite in the boys' race, as well, with five runners under 17:30 and seven under 17:40. North Stokes seems to have a solid grip on second place, with Gray Stone Day likely third. That's where it gets interesting, though, as there are four contenders for the final spot in the state meet. Walkertown, in its first season competing in the regional, has a chance to move on, but will be challenged by Central Academy of Technology and West Wilkes (all three of those teams are separated by only 10 points in the virtual meet). Lurking not far behind those three will be Community School of Davidson, and it could all come down to which of the four has the best day on Saturday.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Sam Williams (Bishop McGuinness) has been strong all year, but he will be tested in this race by Elijah Inuwah (Central Academy of Technology). Behind those two, there should be a competitive pack containing David Pann (Central Academy of Technology), teammates Greg Redden and Leland Lancaster (Bishop McGuinness), and Sean Condon (North Stokes). Justin Nelson (South Stokes) and Chris Jaeger (Chatham Central) should battle for the honor of being the first individual advancer.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's 5K times)
Girls | Boys
1A West Regional (Cherokee HS, Cherokee)
This region is also strong, though not as deep as the Midwest. Interestingly, a large number of individuals from this region competed at Beeson two weeks ago for the NCRunners Elite Invitational, and that gives us a really good basis for ranking them.
Girls Teams to Watch
The top three teams in this race are pretty clearly defined, so unless there is an injury or illness it seems clear who the first three advancers to the state meet will be. Lake Norman Charter comes in as the strong favorite, with Lincoln Charter second and Hendersonville third. Pine Lake Preparatory ranks fourth in the region, but lurking about 20 points behind them in the rankings are four teams that could have ambitions of moving up: Swain County, Hayesville, Highland Tech, and Thomas Jefferson Classical. A few of those potential sleepers have limited results, and that could mean they are not accurately ranked coming into the meet, which in turn could make the final qualifying spot interesting.
Girls Individuals to Watch
Sophia Bhalla (Lincoln Charter) enters this meet with a season best that is almost a minute faster than anyone else in the race, although the transition from McAlpine to Cherokee could be interesting. Shawnda Martin (Robbinsville) ranks second, but Sarah Hardin (Lake Norman Charter) is right on her heels. Hardin's teammates Vicki Kohlway and Stephanie Zaino, along with Bhalla's sister Maria, should round out the candidates for the top 5. Keep an eye on Elizabeth Lackey (Hendersonville), who ran 20:27 last year.
Boys Teams to Watch
Lake Norman Charter is the favorite to repeat as regional champion, but they will face a strong test from Mitchell in this race. It looks like Hendersonville is the third-best team, but there could be quite a fight for the final advancing slot. Hayesville grades out fourth, but Highland School of Technology is onnly seven points behind in the virtual meet, so this could go either way.
Boys Individuals to Watch
Dylan Johnson (Hayesville) and Zach Boone (Mitchell) are familiar foes, and they will not only be racing each other, but also racing to break 16 for the first time this season. Frank Cline (Robbinsville) comes in only 10 seconds behind them, and could join the lead pack and make things very interesting. The Lake Norman Charter pack begins with Matthew Panza and Nathan Kemper, who will be racing with Brandon King (Mitchell). Other than Cline, the top 25 runners in this region's rankings are all from the top 5 schools (although that could be due to lack of results from some teams); that means the fifth team in the final scores will get some individuals into the state meet for sure.
Virtual Meet
(Using this year's times)
Girls | Boys