Whether you're a participant, coach, or just a fan; whether you've travelled hundreds of miles or live right around the corner; whether you're watching live or following online...New Balance Outdoor Nationals is undoubtedly one of the biggest highlights of the year for our sport. Very few other meets can offer the promise of multiple national record attempts like NBN! Let's take a look at the athletes in the best position to set meet records or national records at this year's NBN.
Girls' Record Watch
Octavious Freeman (Lake Wales FL), 100 and 200. Freeman already holds the 100 meet record at 11.27, and she ran a wind-legal 11.21 two weeks ago at Golden South. A favorable legal wind and a good race could put her in range of Angela Williams and her 11.11 time. In the 200, Freeman's personal record is 22.96 (also at Golden South this year) which puts her close to the meet record of 22.94, but far from the national record of 22.11. When the national record is held by Allyson Felix, it's hard to be close!
Meet Record: Excellent Chance (100), Good Chance (200)
National Record: Decent Chance (100), Slim Chance (200)
Amy Weissenbach (Harvard Westlake CA), 800. Weissenbach has already run faster than the existing meet record of 2:02.76. Still, it will be very hard to drop down to Kim Gallagher's national record of 2:00.07. Weissenbach will have to drop the hammer from the start and pull away from the rest of the field to take both records!
Meet Record: Good Chance
National Record: Decent Chance
Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall NY) and Kayla Beattie (Woodstock IL), 3200. Cuffe's best time of 9:56.16 would convert to a two-mile national record, besting the 10:01.08 mark set by Molly Huddle at the 2002 NBN (making it the meet record as well). Beattie is less than a second behind her, and also would have a converted national record. These two may well stage one of the greatest battles of the weekend en route to the top two times in history.
Meet/National Record: Excellent Chance
Mary Kate Anselmini (Ward Melville NY), 2000 steeplechase. Easiest pick of the day, as Anselmini is already the national record holder (set two weeks ago at a sectional qualifier in New York). Her PR puts her two seconds ahead of the meet record, so if she has the legs for another great race she could be the next athlete to claim both records.
Meet/National Record: Excellent Chance
Harvard Westlake (CA), 1600 Medley. Anytime your anchor has run 2:02, you have a shot at something great, but Weissenbach can't do it on her own. She needs great races from Lauren Hansson and Camille Chapus to make the record happen. Adding up the PR's of the four girls listed for their relay puts them close to the record, but it will be hard to get past Eleanor Roosevelt's 3:51.90. Realistically, how many 2:02 800's can Weissenbach be expected to crank out in one weekend?
Meet/National Record: Decent Chance
Harvard Westlake (CA) and Fayetteville-Manlius (NY), Distance Medley. How would you like to have a 2:02 800 runner on the opening 1200 leg, and then have a 4:40 anchor? Harvard Westlake has that in Weissenbach and Chapus, plus a 56 400 runner in Hansson. Will it be enough to get past cross country national champs Fayetteville-Manlius, running under the name Stotan? F-M has a very balanced team with Courtney Chapman and Jillian Fanning both sub-5 milers, and Katie Sischo and Heather Martin have 2:11 and 2:17 PR's, respectively. Strategy may play a role for F-M, in terms of the order they choose to run. This looks like a great race, and great competition often leads to records!
Meet/National Record: Good Chance
Western Branch (VA), Shuttle Hurdles. This team has SEVEN GIRLS UNDER 15 in the 100 hurdles! Admittedly several of the performances were wind-aided, but that is still remarkable depth. The shuttles are possibly the most unpredictable race, and the national record of 57.49 (an average of 14.39) would seem easier if they had a sub-14 girl. Still, the meet record of 59.59 looks to be in serious jeopardy.
Meet Record: Excellent Chance
National Record: Good Chance
Morgann LeLeux (Catholic LA), Pole Vault. Another easy pick, another contestant who already holds the national and meet records. LeLeux should crush her meet record of 13' 4.25" (from last year) as she has gone 14' 2.75" this spring. For some reason, A&T's facility historically has not produced the best vaults, but this is still an obvious pick for a possible record.
Meet Record: Excellent Chance
National Record: Decent Chance
Shelby Ashe (St. Pius X GA), Hammer Throw. Once again, the national record holder is in the competition. Ashe has only (!) thrown 189 feet this year, which is better than the existing meet record but far from her 214-foot best. She only needs to emulate her club team's name--Throw 1 Deep--to pair up the two records.
Meet Record: Excellent Chance
National Record: Good Chance
Hannah Carson (Chandler AZ), Javelin. Fresh off a PR of 168' 2", which is only 2" behind the meet record, Carson is throwing very well. The national record (176' 5") will be more challenging, though.
Meet Record: Good Chance
National Record: Decent Chance
Best Bets: Cuffe/Beattie (2 Mile), Anselmini (Steeple), Western Branch (Shuttle Hurdles)
Boys' Record Watch
Arman Hall (St. Thomas Aquinas FL) and Aaron Ernest (Homewood AL), 200. Although the 100 records look safely out of reach, Hall's 20.82 PR and Ernest's 20.86 put them both in range of the meet record of 20.76. It's unlikely that the national record of 20.17 will fall, though. Hall has an outside shot at the meet record in the 400, as well, but it would take a huge PR for that to happen.
Meet Record: Good Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Jantzen Oshier (Trabuco Hills CA), 1 Mile. Oshier's PR of 4:00.83 puts him right on top of the meet record (4:02.01), but Alan Webb's national record seems likely to stand for another year. Oshier should be well-motivated after setting the pace in the Dream Mile in New York only to watch Lucas Verzbicas break the 4-minute barrier.
Meet Record: Good Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Edward Cheserek (St. Benedict's NJ), 5000. Cheserek has already run 14:02.33, which is 30 seconds under the meet record. The bigger question might be whether he goes under 14 minutes. Galen Rupp's national record of 13:37.91 might be a stretch, especially with the heat and the seeming lack of a challenger that could push Cheserek to the wire.
Meet Record: Excellent Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Miami Northwestern (FL), 4x400. It's always hard to do your best in the last race of the meet, but national leader Northwestern has a 3:10.69 time this year. The meet record is 3:08.05 and the national record is 3:07.40, which would be great performances...but possible.
Meet Record: Decent Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Long Beach Poly (CA), 4x800. Poly made the trip across the country and is running only one event. What does that tell you? The meet record of 7:32.89 and the national record, 7:30.67, are well within their reach, and they know it. They have already run 7:31.69, and with a good race they could be the first to break the 7:30 mark!
Meet Record: Excellent Chance
National Record: Good Chance
Andrew Irwin (Mount Ida AR), Pole Vault. With a PR of 17' 6.5", Irwin is in reach of the meet record of 17' 8.25". However, the national record of 18' 3" may be out of reach. The meet directors have thoughtfully set up the progression in this event to pass the meet record at 17' 8.5" if Irwin can get there.
Meet Record: Decent Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Marquis Dendy (Middletown DE), Triple Jump. Dendy is the meet record holder already. While the national record is probably not threatened, he could extend his mark from NBN last year. Dendy has not been jumping as well this year, but he always has the ability to break out with a big performance.
Meet Record: Decent Chance
National Record: Slim Chance
Best Bets: Edward Cheserek (5000), Long Beach Poly (4x800)