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Boys NCHSAA 4A State Championship Preview
Once again, we see a stacked NCHSAA 4A field going into the state meet, and we have 6 boys that were all-state last season; Connor Lane (Cardinal Gibbons, 2nd), Ben Savino (Apex, 4th), Cameron Ponder (Mt. Tabor, 5th), Ian Shanklin (Page, 7th), Lanier Derbyshire (Broughton, 8th), and John Tatter (R.J. Reynolds, 10th). On top of that we've seen plenty of boys break out this season, making it very difficult for the boys above to repeat their all-state performances.
Connor Lane has had a target on his back all season, but no NC boys have been able to beat him yet. He has the best season's best in the NCHSAA 4A by 20 seconds with his 14:59 at Great American. Last week he dominated a strong 4A Midwest field where he ran 15:21 to win by a decent margin. He will look to win his first XC State title this weekend. Cameron Ponder (Mt. Tabor) has been ranked #2 in our Saucony Flo50 rankings all season. He has had his focus on the postseason passing on a lot of the early season meets in order to get more training in. He and Lane had an epic 3200 duel on the track last outdoor season and this has been a highly anticipated rematch this XC season. Ponder was 11th at the regional, but it seemed to not be an all out effort by him. Ben Savino (Apex) suffered from sickness in the middle of the season causing a minor setback in his training. But last week at the 4A Mideast regional he looked as good as ever winning in a new PR of 15:33. Even though Savino comes in with the 7th best time in 4A this season there is no doubt he'll be ready to perform this weekend, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him walk away with a win. Remember, last year it was Savino who was willing to push the pace early.
John Tatter (RJ Reynolds) was 2nd at the 4A Midwest regional to Lane last weekend. Individually he beat out Ian Shanklin (Page) and teammate Todd Holbrook who each could be in the top 5 this weekend. Ian Shanklin had a hot start to the season where he had a big win at the Greensboro XC Invitational followed up by a big PR at Great American of 15:19. Tatter and Holbrook both could fall into the top 5 this weekend and have run 15:24 and 15:29 respectively this season. Holbrook has seen drastic improvement over his XC career finishing 120th and 125th in his first two seasons at the state meet.
One of the biggest surprises from the regional meet was Finn McBride (Green Hope), who had a huge PR to finish in 2nd behind Savino. McBride's PR coming into the meet was 16:15, so his goals for this weekend have most likely taken a big increase after that performance. Right behind McBride at 4A Mideast was Nathan Gamble (Leesville Road) who has had a very consistent season running around 15:40 in his 3 biggest races of the season. Last year Gamble was 21st, but will look to crack the top 5 this Saturday. Peyton Barish (Green Hope) is also in the middle of a break out season. Barish blasted a 15:26 at Great American earlier this season breaking the school record. He and McBride will look to be a strong duo up front in this race.
Four other boys that you cannot count out this weekend are Tucker Cera (Millbrook), Lanier Derbyshire (Broughton), David Cart (Apex) and Zachary Mercer (Mooresville). Cera had an awesome start to the season running a huge PR of 15:27 at adidas XC Challenge. He seems to have had a setback which kept him out of racing for about a month, but has gotten closer to his beginning of season form through his first two races back. Derbyshire, like the rest of his Broughton teammates, suffered an illness during the middle of the season, but they look like they're back in top form after last weekend. Derbyshire holds a season's best of 15:49, but it would not surprise me to see him much faster than that this weekend. Cart, like teammate Savino, suffered an illness in the middle of the season, but is back with two strong performances at his conference and regional meet. He broke 16 in both races and set a PR both times, with his best at 15:42. Mercer proved he is one of the smartest racers in the state with a great run at 4A West last weekend. He hasn't broken 16 just yet this season, but has been on the fringe of it multiple times. He should certainly be in position for an all-state spot this weekend.
Team
Green Hope and Broughton have stood out the most this season on the team side and had an intense battle for the 4A Mideast title last weekend. Green Hope took down Broughton by 6 points with a score of 44 to the Capital's 50. Both teams showed an impressive 1-5 spread of 28 seconds for Green Hope and just 14 for Broughton. Green Hope has a very strong top 3 in Barish, McBride and Ian Delgado, while Broughton's entire top 5 could be the #1 man on any given day. This is certainly going to be a big rematch for the state title, but there are a few other teams I expect to mix it up with them. One thing to take note of is that Green Hope only has one senior in their top 7.
Cardinal Gibbons has a stellar top 4, but are looking to find a 5th man in order to compete with Green Hope and Broughton. They have proved to be very strong with a win at Wendy's without #1 man Connor Lane and a win over RJR and Mt. Tabor at the regional meet last weekend. Mount Tabor and RJ Reynolds are certainly podium contenders if they have a good day and are capable of rising to the table and causing a major upset this weekend.
Girls NCHSAA 4A State Championship
Individual
Nevada Mareno (Leesville Road) is a heavy favorite here coming in with a seasons best time almost 45 seconds better than the rest of the field, and we probably haven't seen her near her best yet. Mareno's time last weekend was 17:15, which will be tough for anyone to match. But there are two girls could step up and give her a challenge this weekend, who both are riding an undefeated season. Sara Platek (Ragsdale) has been dominant all season long and dipped under 18 for the first time last weekend at the 4A Midwest Regional. Last week was the first time she's really been challenged this year with Isabel Zimmermann (Reagan) being in striking distance throughout the race. She certainly could be saving up a big performance for this weekend. Natalie Tyner (Laney) is riding a break out season and has been dominant in every race she's run this season. With a ton of strong competition I think Tyner could surprise herself once again this season. Tyner's season's best mark is 17:58 from Jungle Run.
Isabel Zimmermann (Reagan), Katherine Priu (Cardinal Gibbons), and Sophie Faricloth (Reagan) will all be battling for a top 5 finish this weekend. The three ran PRs at the 4A Midwest regional last weekend where they went 2-3-4 behind Platek. ZImmermann has dropped her PR by a minute from last season and will certainly be ready for a big day this weekend after a 18:09 PR last weekend. Sophomore Priu and Freshman Faircloth have probably exceeded their expectations time wise this season, and will be looking for a top 5 finish at states to top it off.
After the top 6 there is a ton of girls going back to 25th in the rankings at are all capable of placing in the top 10, and it truly depends on who has the best day. Marissa Bishop (Gibbons) had a monster day last year at state where she took third. Bishop has run 18:26 this season and is certainly capable of repeating that performance again. Her teammate Sloan Walter has a virus that kept her out for a few weeks in the middle of the year, but came back better than ever and was running as Gibbons' #2 girl. Janay Hall (South View) has broke 19 twice this year on her home South View course and took 2nd place last weekend at the 4A East regional behind Tyner. Shannon Sefton (Panther Creek) is in the middle of a break out year that seems to get better and better each week. She ran 19:04 at the SWAC Championships, and followed it up with an 18:41 at the regional meet where she took 2nd behind Mareno.
Elise Wright (TC Roberson) is in her first XC season and has had tremendous success. She won the 4A West regional last weekend in a new PR of 19:04, and I think her ceiling is much higher when she doesn't have to push the pace by herself over the last half. Green Hope has a trio of girls that have been very strong all season in Samantha Kolor, Sarah Taylor, and Alesandra Rodriguez. The three have run very consistently all season and are hungry to lead start a Team Title streak for Green Hope that ended last year. One thing is for certain, we know that they'll be ready for the challenge. Kate Eiselt (Myers Park), Savannah Jones (Broughton), Holly Bailey (Lake Norman), Annie Pierce (Cardinal Gibbons) and Erin Spreen (Wake Forest) will all be hungry to crack the top 10 this weekend as well.
Team
Cardinal Gibbons come in 5 as the favorites to defend their title from 2015. Their top 4 are very strong with a 5-7 that come in very close together. They've been shorthanded at a lot of big meets this season, and I believe regionals was the first time we've seen them at full strength. They are capable of placing 4 girls in the top 10 against a strong 4A field. Green Hope comes in at #2 in our virtual meet, and using season's best times have 7 girls come in before Gibbons' 5th. They have a very strong pack that can be just as good as Gibbons top 4. I think we will be in for a big rematch between these two schools on Saturday.
Reagan girls have developed a monster top 3 with Zimmermann, Faricloth, and Ainsley Cooper. Their 4-7 are very tight, and they will need 2 of them to have a huge day this weekend if they are going to grab a podium spot. Providence has a tight spread of 49 seconds from their top 5 and are deep back to their 5th girl. They dominated the 4A West regional last weekend and very well will contend for a podium spot.