There is no greater feather in the cap of a high school cross country runner than to put "Footlocker Nationals qualifier" on the resume. Have that there and write your ticket to any college and go down in the books with the all-time greats. But it's such a status symbol for a reason--it's not easy!
So with thousands headed to North Carolina from around the South, many with hopes of qualifying... who can Florida expect to see on the list of qualifiers? Here is my outlook and predictions. This is a completley editorial piece and admitedly only one man's poteitially biased and uninformed opinion! But hopefully it is informational or at least entertaining! Predictions are fun!
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ASHLEY BRASOVAN
To say Ashley is the best female runner in Florida is an understatement. She is a potential national title threat and still only a junior she is already one of the greatest (if not the greatest) female distance runner in Florida history. Her potential is astounding; the sky's the limit.
And yet... you have to put a big question mark on whether she will qualify for Footlocker Nationals! It's really amazing in a puzzling, frustrating kind of way. By now she should have two trips to San Diego under her belt and her family should have their plane tickets already. But that Footlocker South course has been her undoing, and for whatever reason (strategy, nerves...) she has not been able to qualify in these last two years despite dominating the competition the rest of the season.
But now, Ashley has some additional national race experience under her belt. More maturity to handle the pressure. And the wherewithall to try to avoid reading some of the "jinxing" things that might be said in the press. She's also had some guidance from Coach Doug Butler, who knows a thing or two about guiding top high school athletes.
Third time's a charm! Go get 'em Ashley! She should be San Diego bound.
Odds: 90%
EMILIE AMARO
Emilie has a way of coming through in big meets. She knows how to pick her battles and when she is on, she's on! She has shown that at flrunners, Great American, the state meet, and at last year's Footlocker South when she qualified for Nationals.
This past weekend she looked great against Ashley, at times even leaving us to wonder if she might just upset the queen. She did afterall outkick Ashley in the mile during the state meet in track.
Emilie is in great shape and poised to make her return to Footlocker Nats.
Odds: 80%
KAYLA HALE
Competing the trifecta of Florida's big three girls... Kayla Hale! Her last trip out of state to Great American she was well behind Ashley and Emilie. But that week she was under the weather. With no one to push her but herself she ran the fourth fastest time on Saturday at Little Everglades. The three who ran faster were all in the same race (and in perhaps slightly better conditions).
I believe Kayla will be right with Emilie. I believe those two will probably sit near the back of the lead pack and draft, while they watch as people start to peel away. Kayla is fierece and fit. She knows how to handle the pressure of big meets.
Florida's big three are likely to finish all in the top 5 or 6 at Foolocker South.
Odds: 75%
BRITTANY KOZIARA
Brittany has an outside shot at qualifying for Footlocker Nationals. It would almost be unprecedented for a state to qualify four atheltes. But I believe this could possibly be Florida's year. Now, if I had to guess I would say Brittany falls just below the cutoff--top 15 or 20. But there is a chance that she could slip in there in the top 10 going to San Diego.
She has had a breakthrough fall and been steadily improving week after week. She kept Ashley and Emilie in sight on Saturday. And if conditions were ideal for her, she could have made it closer.
Odds: 25%
JOSEPH FRANKLIN
You tell this guy he can't do something and he is going to do it. Joseph is tough as nails. He has the goal of running sub 4:00 in the mile this spring... and has the potential to do it! Most would say he's an 800 runner or a miler... not a 5K runner. But he went undefeated in the 5000m in Florida this fall.
He hasn't run the fast times that would lead you to believe he can run with the best in the South well enough to qualify for Nationals. But, as he said in the interview with Ricky Quintana at state, he does not run for time but to win.
I am putting Joe as Florida's best hope at having a male representative in San Diego. And I would put the odds at 60% chance he gets to punch his ticket.
Odds: 60%
ERIC LARSON
He had the fastest time at regionals at Miccosukee Greenway a couple of weeks ago... well faster on that same course, same day than Joseph Franklin, Matt Mizereck, or anyone else.
He was defeated this week at state by a guy who is super talented and has only been running for 1.5 years (Matt Mizereck). My opinion: Matt ran a smart race, Eric did not. Eric got caught up in a faster than expected first mile. He was being pushed by Jonathan Esteban and did not want to give up the lead. Result: he won the 4900 meter race, but lost the 5000 meter race. Lay off a tad on that first mile and let
Esteban have that lead... Mizereck *may* have gone home with the silver.
I think Eric has a pretty decent shot at qualifying. I would not be completely surprised to see him ahead of Joseph Franklin in the results on Saturday.
Odds: 40%.
KYLE COOKE
I want to believe, oh I want to believe! Dreams can come true. There is probably no one who wants this more than Kyle. His first dream came true with his state title last week. And that was a long time coming... he has been a dominant force in Florida distance for a while now (especially 1A), so it was great to see him get that checked off the list. His next dream is to qualify for Footlocker Nationals.
He is a great runner. And I hope he gets this. He's got talent and has put in the work. But at this point, he is not favored to finish in that coveted top 10. He's a likely top 25er.
Odds: 10%
BRIAN ATKINSON
I don't know what to say about this guy. He is an over-achiever. He hasn't run against Franklin, Larson, Mizereck, or even his in-county foe Cooke very much if at all. So it's so hard to judge. But judging based on his ability to continually go beyond expectations and how he ran like a man on a mission at Little Everglades... anything's possible. So at this point, I would say not favored but who knows!
Odds: 15%
MATT MIZERECK
Still learning about running, how to race, and what he can do. If the discipline and determination he showed on Saturday are any clue, he has learned a lot! He is tall and slender and his kick looked like a gazelle up the final stretch toward his 3A title at Little Evergaldes. He did run the fastest time of anyone at state last weekend. You never know.
Odds: 15%
OTHERS
These folks are probably not threats to qualify, but will be ones to watch for potential top 30 honors....
Alyssa Burkert, Ashley Shiver, Amanda Perkins, Guillermo Echarte, Sebastian Castillo, Daniel Manco.
Odds: 1%