Nov 08, 2014

It's time to look at the NCRunners predictions for the major postseason meets this fall, and see how well we did! Some of these picks were made by the judgement of the NCRunners staff, and others were made by the database through virtual meets. In both cases, we want to know how accurate our predictions turned out to be, and you can see the results below.

Staff Picks for the NCHSAA State Meet

Preseason Rankings

Virtual Meets for the NCHSAA & NCISAA State Meets

Virtual Meets for the NCHSAA Regional Meets

Staff Picks for the NCHSAA State Meet

1A Boys Individual: 100% correct
1A Boys Team: 0% correct
1A Girls Individual: 100% correct
1A Girls Team: 60% correct
2A Boys Individual: 60% correct
2A Boys Team: 100% correct
2A Girls Individual: 80% correct
2A Girls Team: 100% correct
3A Boys Individual: 80% correct
3A Boys Team: 60% correct
3A Girls Individual: 0% correct
3A Girls Team: 100% correct
4A Boys Individual: 0% correct
4A Boys Team: 80% correct
4A Girls Individual: 60% correct
4A Girls Team: 100% correct
Jeff George: 11 of 16, 69%
Jason Creasy: 10 of 16, 63%
Abby Brooks: 12 of 16, 75%
David Tomchinsky: 11 of 16, 69%
Rodger Shull: 11 of 16, 69%
Overall: 55 of 80, 69%

Preseason Rankings by Coach George

The Preseason Countdown for boys and girls continues to be pretty accurate, considering that it's based on data from the previous school year. Here are some of the successes:

Predicted the top 4 NCHSAA 4A Boys teams in the exact order they finished.
Correctly identified 6 of the top 10 NCHSAA 4A Boys teams at the state meet.
Predicted the top 3 NCHSAA 3A Boys teams, but got the order of the top 2 wrong.
Predicted the top 3 NCISAA 3A Boys teams, but got the order of 2nd and 3rd wrong.
Predicted 4 of the top 5 NCHSAA 4A Girls teams, but got the order wrong.
Had the eventual top 5 teams in the NCHSAA 4A Girls race in the top 6.
Predicted the top 5 NCHSAA 3A Girls teams, but got the order wrong.
Correctly predicted the top 2 NCHSAA 2A Girls teams.
Correctly predicted 2 of the top 3 NCISAA 3A Girls teams.

Virtual Meets for the NCHSAA & NCISAA State Meets

Predicted 9 of 14 team champions (64%)
Predicted top 5 NCHSAA 4A Girls teams, but got the order wrong.
Predicted 4 of the top 5 NCHSAA 4A Boys teams, with top 2 out of order.
Predicted top 5 NCHSAA 3A Girls teams, missing only the order of 4 and 5.
Predicted top 5 NCHSAA 3A Boys teams, missing only the order of 4 and 5.
Predicted top 4 NCHSAA 2A Girls teams, missing the order of 3 and 4.
Predicted top 4 NCHSAA 2A Boys teams in the exact order they finished.
Predicted 4 of the top 5 NCHSAA 1A Girls teams, but did not get any in the correct place.
Predicted 4 of the top 5 NCHSAA 1A Boys teams, but did not get any in the correct place.
NCHSAA Success: 88% of top 5 teams identified.
Predicted top 3 NCISAA 1A Girls teams, but did not get any in the correct place. (3 of 5 identified, 1 of 5 correct place)
Predicted top 2 NCISAA 1A Boys teams in the exact order they finished. (3 of 5 identified, 3 of 5 correct place)
Predicted 2 of top 3 NCISAA 2A Girls teams, but did not get any in the correct place. (3 of 5 identified, 1 of 5 correct place)
Predicted top 3 NCISAA 2A Boys teams, missing the order of 2 and 3. (3 of 5 identified, 0 of 5 correct place)
Predicted top 5 NCISAA 3A Boys teams, missing the order of 2 through 5. (5 of 5 identified, 1 of 5 correct place)
Predicted 4 of top 5 NCISAA 3A Girls teams, getting 2 in the correct place. (4 of 5 identified, 2 of 5 correct place)
NCISAA Success: 70% of top 5 teams identified.
Overall Succes: 80% of top 5 teams identified.

Virtual Meets for the NCHSAA Regional Meets

1A Regionals: Predicted 29 of 32 advancing teams (91%)
2A Regionals: Predicted 24 of 32 advancing teams (75%)
3A Regionals: Predicted 28 of 32 advancing teams (88%)
4A Regionals: Predicted 27 of 32 advancing teams (84%)
Overall Success: 84% of advancing teams correctly identified

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