The "It Factor": A Brief Statistical Study of Athletic Transcendence

Did Trentavis Friday really transcend the limits of what we expect athletes to achieve?  What does that even mean?

 

I have had the privilege to witness the performances of a handful of athletes that I considered transcendent at the time - performances that went so far beyond the "limits" of what even other elite athletes could achieve that it seemed other-worldly at the time.  Getting to experience that same feeling this past year through the magnificence of Trentavis Friday left me with questions about the concept of transcendence in track and cross country: what does "It" mean, which North Carolina historical greats had "It," and how often does "It" happen?  In short, when can we expect to see another athlete on the level of Trent Friday?

 

What is "It?"

Before Friday there was J-Mee Samuels, who I was both lucky and unfortunate to coach against during my days at R.J. Reynolds.  Samuels was simply on another planet compared to the other sprinters in the state during his 4 years at Mount Tabor, culminating in 2005 when he ran 10.08 (then a high-school national record) and 20.32.  The previous North Carolina state record in the 100 (counting only FAT marks) was 10.39, which means that Samuels was almost exactly 3% better than the previous best in that event.  Trentavis, for his part, ran 10.00 - less than 1% better than Samul's time.  So right off the bat, we can see that the presence of one transcendent athlete in the state records makes it hard for anyone else to reach "another level."  However, if we exclude Samuel and compare Friday's best 100 to the 3rd-best legal FAT mark in state history (Sean McLean's 10.31), then it turns out that the Cherryville grad is exactly 3% better.  In other words, Trentavis Friday is on the SAME LEVEL in comparison to everyone else in state history as J-Mee Samuels was when he ran his best marks.

What about the 200, you might ask?  Friday's best of 20.03 was wind-aided, but it would have been 1.4% faster than Samuel's 20.32 and (you guessed it) exactly 3% faster than McLean's 20.64.  If you use the wind-legal times only, then Friday and Samuels are both 1.4% better than McLean's time, and 2.4% faster than T.J. Graham's 20.82, the 4th-fastest legal time in state history.  Putting these two events together, it suggests that a truly transcendent athlete is 2-3% better than anyone else has been in that event.  Let's see if this standard holds up for more than just sprint races.

 

Next: Which North Carolina Athletes Have Had "It?"