Which Regions Look Toughest in 2014?

The boys' 4A Mideast has been the toughest region in the state the past few years, and will continue to be.  Right?

 

We took the results of our Preseason Top 25, and also the returning top 25 from the database, and looked at how many teams from each region were ranked.  The regions with the most teams in the top 25 are the toughest; in the case of ties, the top 4 or 5 teams' places were added together just like individuals generating a team score.  The results are very interesting: on the boys' side there were three close candidates for toughest region and a clear top 5, whereas for the girls there were two giants and then a huge drop-off to a widely-distributed group.  Overall, 10 girls' regionals had at least one team in the top 25, compared to 8 boys' regionals.

 

Preseason Top Boys Regions

  • 4A Midwest: With a staggering 6 teams in the Preseason Top 25 (and 5 in the database's top 25), this is by far the deepest region.  A few state-meet-quality teams will be on the sidelines on November 1st, although if you just score the top 4 teams this region falls behind the next 2.

 

  • 4A East: With 4 teams in the top 25 of both rankings, the East edged the infamous 4A Mideast for the top spot on points, 34 - 43 (using the database rankings, the gap is even wider: 31-48).  Though some will argue that the teams in the East tend to run on flatter, faster courses (and there is definitely some truth to that), the Preseason Top 25 adjusted for that.  No matter how you slice it, there is a ton of talent East of Raleigh this year.

 

  • 4A Mideast: Also has 4 teams in the top 25, but ranked slightly lower due to being a little less deep than in past years.  This could be due to the shifting of the PAC 6 conference (with East Chapel Hill and Jordan) to the Midwest, or could just be part of the ebb and flow of team talent in the state.  This is close enough that the Mideast 4A could easily be the toughest region by the end of the season.

 

  • 3A Mideast: Three powerful squads at the top of the rankings, but not as much depth as the 4A regions (which is to be expected due to a smaller talent pool).  The competition for the 2 regional trophies will be intense, though, and there are likely to be 3 teams from this region that make the top 10 of the 3A state meet.

 

  • 4A West: A little bit of a down year in terms of top-10 teams, but on the other hand this region is going to be a dogfight between 4 evenly-matched teams.  NCRunners ranked 3 of these among the Preseason Top 25, while the database has four, but none of the teams are higher than 15th in either ranking.

 

 

Preseason Top Girls Regions

  • 4A West: With 6 teams in the top 25, 5 in the top 12, and 3 in the top 6, this is the Murderer's Row of regionals.  Without a doubt, a team capable of making the top 8 in the 4A state meet won't even advance out of the West, and if any team is going to unseat the Falcons in 2014 it will almost certainly come from this region.

 

  • 4A Mideast: Also has 6 teams in the top 25, which means there is a lot of talent concentrated into the top two regions.  Only two of the teams from the 4A Mideast are in the top 10 of the Preseason Top 25, though, and the teams aren't as clustered as they are in the 4A West.  Nonetheless, the battle for the 4 advancers from each of these regionals will be intense.

 

  • 3A Mideast: After the first two regions, there isn't another with more than two teams in the top 25.  In this case the two are very talented teams, both in the final 7 of the Preseason Countdown.

 

  • 3A Midwest: Two Union County rivals sit at the top of this regional, but the depth falls off somewhat after that.

 

  • 4A East & 4A Midwest: One has two teams in the Preseason Countdown, and the other has two teams in the returning top 25 from the database, so we'll count this as a tie.