The biggest question of the 4A meet may be whether the skies will cooperate, but whatever the weather there will always be some huge performances from the state's largest schools! From surprise top seeds to the epected contenders, let's take a look at some of the major plots of the meet.
Girls:
Can anyone beat Wakefield? Um, no, probably not. Wakefield looks dominant, and with the core of their team being juniors they seem to be forming a dynasty that rivals past superpowers Harding and Southeast Raleigh. If anyone has a chance to upset them, it would be T. C. Roberson, but they look like a lock for second place. This meet has the clearest disparity between the top three teams of any of the four state meets running this weekend. Still, thinkgs can go crazy at the state meet, and the Rams will certainly try to be in position to capitalize on every opportunity.
Could the relays possible be any more competitive? A look at the seeding shows incredibly close races in all four relays, although two of them do have a clear front-runner. In the 4x100, the top 6 teams are separated by less than half a second, with West Meck leading Roberson going in. The 4x200 features three teams less than a second apart at the top, led by Butler...but I have a suspicion Wakefield may stick their noses into that race. Behind Wakefield in the 4x4 there are 6 teams separate by 1.5 seconds, and following Cary's 4x8 there are 6 teams separated by only 6 seconds. This is shaping up to be a great day for relay fans!
Will there be a changing of the guard in the hurdles? Clayton senior Keni Harrison is holding the torch as the state's current sprint superstar, with her twin US top-10 times in the two hurdle races. Fellow seniors Sarah Graham (Wake Forest-Rolesville), Dannielle Davis (Southeast Raleigh), and Michaela Birek (Wakefield) will look to create an all-senior top 3 in each hurdle race. While these seniors look to exit on top, keep an eye out for the up-and-comers that will star next year; if they get a little impatient, one might break through this weekend!
Will youth (or at least juniors) be served in the sprints? Juniors Olicia Sharp (Wakefield), Markia Franklin (Southern Durham), and Alexis Murphy (Apex) are looking to rise to the throne in the short sprints. In the long sprints, Senior T'Sheila Mungo (Independence) has been a consistent top performer, but juniors Ariah Graham (Wakefield) and Aalayah Faulcon (Southern Durham) want to prevent her from writing the final act to her script. All of this will come to a head in the 200, at the end of a long day, and it should be quite a battle!
Who will be the surpise winners in the distance races? Overcast skies, rain, and cooler temperatures might not make the sprinters happy, but they could lead to some interesting longer races. Margaret Leak (Mount Tabor) seeks an elusive title and holds the top spot in the 800, but she has indicated that she might not run it (instead favoring the 3200?). Seniors Lena Elliott (Parkland) and Deanna Foshee (Cary) are also hunting their first individual title in the 800, and soph Jennie Cunningham tore up the track in the winter with a huge 2:12. Leak, like many others, is looking to break the 5-minute mark in the 1600. Brooke Gordon (T. C. Roberson) is the fastest qualifier there, followed by cross country state champ Darby Middlebrook and a fleet of other strong runners. Who knows which contender will emerge with the title? Sophomore Anna McBride (Davie) is the top seed in the 3200, the only girl to go under 11 in any 4A regional, but she will be pursued by 5 girls who have gone under 11 this spring.
Will there be some payback in the field events? Sequoia Watkins (T. C. Roberson) leads the field in the shot put, but she lost the West Regional discus (her favorite of the two) to Jasmine Suydam of Mallard Creek. Dannielle Davis has been over 18' numerous times in the long jump, but didn't get there in the regional; she'll be tracking Ariah Graham and Shemiah Brooks (Southwest Guilford) for a chance to redeem that performance. Alexis Hall (Page) is a state meet vet, but she finds herself trailing Brooks and Cori Floyde (Ardrey Kell) in the triple. I could see these events being a back-and-forth battle throughout prelims and finals!
How high can they go? In contrast to the other four field events, the vertical jumps both have clear favorites. Sarah Graham leads all qualifiers by 4" with a clearance of 5' 8", and Sydney White (East Forsyth) has a foot on all the competitors in the vault with her 12' 6" jump at the regional (she has gotten over 13' once this year). White has a chance to establish herself as the top vaulter in state history, but as a junior she has plenty of time left. Behind these two, it will be a knock-down, drag-out fight for the other podium spots!
NC Runners predictions: Wakefield asserts their dominance by winning 3 relays and cruises past Roberson, and there will be three first-time state champions in the distance races!
Boys:
Who is Mark Blackmon? Some of you may be asking this question after seeing his results in the West regional. Blackmon comes from a family with a tradition of running excellence (two Blackmon sisters ran for NC State). He began his career at Fort Mill, where he posted a 5K PR of 15:18 and a time of 4:21 for a full mile. Mark is also a standout basketball player, and this fall he moved to Raleigh to attend Word of God Christian Academy and play basketball there. During the second semester, he moved to Charlotte and now attends West Charlotte, where he helped win a basketball state title. Although basketball may have slowed his development, his 1:54 in the regional was a PR and he will be hard to beat in that event.
OK, then who are the challengers in the distance races? Behind Blackmon, there are a whopping 7 runners with times under 1:57, which means that the 800 is going to be a barn burner of a race! It may come down to the runners that are freshest, which could in turn be decided by who runs (or drops) the 1600. Clyde Wilson IV (Jack Britt) is the defending champion and is certainly capable of dropping down to 1:54 or 1:53. Especially noteworthy is the presence of a freshman, Christian White of Ardrey Kell, in an event that is normally contested by upperclassmen; 1:56 is blazingly fast for a 9th-grader! An injury to Blake Williams (Northern Durham) has slowed his training and may have opened the door for contenders. Williams is still racing in the 1600, where Mitch Mallory (Wakefield) is the top seed. Dark horse: Craig Engels of Reagan has run strong times at 3200 and 800, but has yet to put together his best 1600. Mallory also leads the list of qualifiers in the 3200, an event that was dominated on the 4A level by Williams this winter.
Seriously, could the relays be any more competitive? The top 8 boys 4x1 teams are separated by 0.7 seconds, the 4x4 has a 5-second separation from 1 through 8, and the 4x800 shows only seven seconds separating first from eighth. It seems that only in the 4x200 are the teams a bit spread out, with Knightdale leading by 0.6 over second place and 2 seconds over 8th place.
How far can Courtland Clavette throw? His discus achievements are impressive enough (his qualifying mark of 171-11 is almost 12 feet short of his PR), but his improvement in the shot put has been nothing short of amazing. Topping out at 57' last week, he even beat Nick Sansotta of Butler, who seemed unstoppable in the shot. Those two will get to battle once more on Saturday, with Shaun Underwood (Fuquay Varina) and Caleb Cates (Ragsdale) also aiming for spots on the podium.
Can Knightdale pull off the double championship? The Knights won the winter state meet, and they are the favorites again this spring. However, they showed some vulnerability in the regional, and they might have more competition than previously thought. The key will not be in the sprints, where Knightdale is incredibly deep, but in the hurdles and jumps. Josh McClam leads the list of LJ qualifiers with a host of 22-footers behind him. Knightdale will get a big boost if Joshua Dunston returns to his 23-foot jumps from earlier in the season. Reuben Malone (Harnett Central) is the top seed in the TJ, with veteran Carl Marant of Sanderson on his heels. The high jump features 3 guys who cleared 6' 8" last week: Jonathan Addison (Enloe), Jaylon Holt (Southeast Raleigh), and Webster Montague (East Wake). John Mangum of Green Hope vaulted the highest in the regionals, but Austin Vegas (East Forsyth) is the state leader with his clearance of 15' 6" earlier in the season.
In the hurdles, Tyriq Jackson (Hopewell) leads his team in a bid to upset the Knights. Jackson has brought back a North Carolina tradition: last year was the first year since at least 2001 in which we had no boys under 14 seconds in the 110. Stanley Broaden of Ashley is the top challenger in the highs, and he is also the #1 seed in the 300, where Marquis Bailey (Ben L. Smith) will battle him for the title.
Who will rise to the top of the field in the sprints? Keith Marshall of Millbrook has a big lead on the field in the 100, and Anthony Bynum is the #1 qualifier in the 200. Behind each one is a strong group of sprinters, and with all of them on the same track it will be very interesting to see who emerges! The 400 may be the most hotly-contested race of the day, as the top 7 posted times between 49.34 and 49.75 in their regional finals! Burkheart Ellis, Jr (Knightdale) is the top seed in a field that doesn't really have a favorite. I can't wait to see how this one turns out! One team that hasn't been mentioned in the sprint events is Wakefield, but look for Aaron Covington and his teammates to exceed their seeding on Saturday.