Stars like Kylie McMillan are in short supply in 3A this year, and that opens the door for less-known athletes to make a name for themselves this weekend.
Graduation hit 3A hard last year. The individual winners of 18 events from last year's 3A Indoor State Meet were seniors, including the top 4 girls in the long jump, the top 6 boys in both the hurdles and the 500, and the top 7 boys in the long jump. In fact, Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson, 3200) and Noah Tyson (Asheville, Triple Jump) are the only returning individual champions on the boys' side! Given all the losses, the biggest question of the Saturday morning session is this: who will take advantage of the talent vacuum and step up to claim a championship? Let's examine that question, plus take a look at the most competitive events and the individual stars.
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Events to Watch | Athletes to Watch | Team Preview
Breakout Candidates
Every girl that jumped over 17 feet at last year's state meet graduated. Four girls have passed that barrier this season, led by Courtney Cefalo (Ledford, above) and her 17' 11" mark. She may have to get out beyond 18 feet Saturday to hold off Cambria Shuford (Statesville). On the boys' side, only one guy who jumped over 21 feet in the 2014 state meet returns, and that's Noah Tyson (who is seeded 6th this weekend). Colton Harrell (Weddington) enters with a 21' 11.5" mark from a polar bear, and we never know if wind was a factor in outdoor jumps. Behind him in the seeding is a cluster of jumpers around 21' 6" that all have better indoor experience than Harrell: Julian Gaines (Marvin Ridge) and Nate Tyson (Asheville) have multiple quality indoor jumps, while Isaac Wilkerson (Westover) and T.C. Boston (Freedom) both posted their best jumps indoors. This one is quite literally wide open, and any of those jumpers could win.
Say it with me: when in doubt, go with the FAT! That applies in the 500, where Corey Thompson (East Gaston) is the 4th seed but the only one whose best time was run on the tighter indoor curves. R.J. Russell (Richlands) and Brian Fernandez (Pisgah) both have big polar bear times, but their indoor times are at least 2 seconds slower; Andrew Spear (West Carteret) hasn't run this race indoors since last year's state meet. Thompson could also have been the top seed in the wide-open 55 Hurdles, but all of his performances in that event this winter were as an unattached athlete. Instead, that title goes to Spear, who was the lone non-senior in last year's hurdle final. If he can break 8 seconds, that might be enough to win on Saturday - Spear is the only guy in the hurdles to have run under the qualifying time indoors or with FAT.
Events to Watch
The girls' 1600 is going to be amazing. Lexi King (Marvin Ridge) has the top seed as she pursues her first individual championship, but her lead over Clare McNamara (Chapel Hill) is only a few tenths of a second. Right behind them is 2014 outdoor 1600 champ Anna Vess (A.C. Reynolds), as well as Haley Shaeffer (Jacksonville) and Megan Vaughn (Cardinal Gibbons). If Vaughn or teammate Marissa Bishop can move up in this race, it will tighten the team battle quite a bit. Vaughn is also the top seed in a strong 1000, where she will race King, Asheville's Naomi Cartier, and Morgan Garrett (Weddington). The top three in the boys' 1600 are fantastic, but then comes a big drop-off to the 4th seed. Still, when Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson), Connor Peoples (Cardinal Gibbons), and Mitchell Resor (Weddington) square off, it makes for a good race - all three were invited to the Elite Mile at last weekend's David Oliver Classic. The best and deepest of the distance races could be the boys' 3200, where Baldwin is actually the 4th seed behind Matthew Conner (Weddington), Connor Lane (Cardinal Gibbons), and Zach Marchinko (Carson). Add in 4 more guys with times under 9:45 and there should be a large lead pack and several lead changes in this race - unless Baldwin decides to sit out the 1000 and claim "his" race. In that case, there will be a large chase pack and several contenders for second place.
There are a few events that are particularly important to the team scoring, and the boys' triple jump is one of them. Mekhi McGuyver (Asheville) is the heavy favorite to win - he has jumped farther than the second-place qualifier in four of his five meets this winter. That #2 seed is teammate Noah Tyson, and if Asheville can go 1-2 here it will greatly help their chance to make the podium at the end of the season. On the other hand, Marvin Ridge also has 2 jumpers in the event in Julian Gaines and Christopher Garrick, and they hold the 3rd and 4th seeds and a chance to gain ground in their pursuit of a team championship. In the boys' shot put, the seeds are a bit deceiving, as Tyson Fortenberry (Ashbrook) was not entered at his best mark; if he had been, he would be the #1 seed at 51' 5". That puts him into a tight battle with Alex Williams (Fike), who has thrown 51' 2.5". Behind those two, there will also be a great fight for 3rd place between 3 guys who have thrown in the 47's, not to mention 2 more in the 46's.
It has been a rough season for Ian West (Fike). A concussion prevented him from competing in several crucial late-season invitationals, and his season best is 18 inches below his all-time PR. If he's healthy, though, he has powerful motivation: he fell just short of winning this meet last year. West also has a tough obstacle to overcome in Tristian Shaver (Ledford), whose rise this season has been nothing less than astonishing. Shaver is currently tied for US #17 and NC #2 All-Time. In addition to those two, you can also see 14-foot jumpers Marshall Shank (East Rowan) and Bailey Frederick (Marvin Ridge) battle for 3rd place - or possibly higher, in an event that can be unpredictable. The girls' vault should also be intensely competitive, with the top four seeds separated by only 9 inches. Savannah Creed (South Johnston) has only cleared 11 feet once, in her most recent meet, whereas Taylor Helms (Marvin Ridge) and Sofia San Miguel (Cardinal Gibbons) are veterans at that height. Tori Martin (Rockingham) has a season best of 10' 6", but she jumped 11 feet last spring.
Can senior Pia Mackie (Asheville) fight off the youngsters? She will face three talented sophomores, including Cambria Shuford (Statesville), whose season best is nearly identical to Mackie's. Millie McCoy (Concord) and MacKenzie Whitaker (West Carteret) are right behind, with all 4 under 1:21. Oh, and don't count out Courtney Warner (C.B. Aycock), who is seeded in the second heat but has the speed to run under 1:20. On any state meet weekend, there is always at least one 55 Dash where pretty much everybody comes in with hand times, and so you have no idea who is legit and who is pretending. That's the case with the boys' 55 in this meet, which contains a flood of 6.44 and 6.54 times that don't really mean anything because they could be the result of fast thumbs instead of fast legs. When you switch over to indoor times only, though, Josh Little (East Rowan) and Denzal Gilmore (Concord) emerge as the clear favorites. Say it again: when in doubt, always go with the FAT!
Athletes to Watch
You won't find a more dominant athlete in a single event this weekend than Kylie McMillan (Southern Guilford) in the 55 Hurdles. She has a whopping 0.6 second advantage over the cluster of girls that will be racing for second place behind her, and that's an eternity in a race this short. She is also the top seed in the 55 and 300, although only because Courtney Warner (C.B. Aycock) is inexplicably entered at 42.70 instead of her season best of 40.53. In the 55 Dash the two are almost evenly matched, and the two sprint events could go a long way toward determining if McMillan becomes an MVP candidate at the end of the meet; McMillan may have the edge when it comes to the 300 because Warner is in the 500.
Elizabeth Olesen (Hickory Ridge) has struggled a bit with her technique this season, but she is still the top seed in the high jump by 4". At some point soon she will put it all together, and her improved foundation of strength with shine through - and wouldn't Saturday be a good day for that to happen? Likewise, Christopher Garrick (Marvin Ridge) enters with a US #2 mark of 6' 10", half a foot better than the next entry. Don't be surprised if Garrick decides to simply take the win in this event and then concentrate instead on the triple jump, which is one of the battlegrounds in the war for the team title. Imani Bennett (Southern Guilford) owns the top triple jump mark by 10 inches, although Tamilia Wright (Williams) has a PR of 37' 9" from a previous season. Cassidy Nolan (Western Guilford) has almost a 2-foot advantage over the next qualifier in the shot put, and her best throw came in her most recent meet, and also indoors (both good signs). Taylor Kirk (East Rowan) is the lone adaptive athlete in this classification, and she will be in the shot put and the 55.
Will Tanis Baldwin (East Henderson) run all three distance races? If so, he will actually have the weakest competition in the race with which he is least associated, the 1000. Connor Peoples (Cardinal Gibbons) could inherit a relatively easy win in that race if Baldwin scratches to focus on his more-familiar 3200, or the two could stage an interesting race. The opposite situation from Baldwin's applies to Sophie Ebihara (Cardinal Gibbons), who qualified in all three races but is only entered in the 3200. That will certainly keep her legs fresh for a race against Lexi King, who will likely be in all three races as she tries to score points toward a Marvin Ridge title run.
Team Preview
The girls' 4x800 will start the meet off with a preview of the team competition, as the top two teams in the virtual meet - Marvin Ridge and Cardinal Gibbons - will also be the top two seeds. Don't be surprised if A.C. Reynolds also joins the race for the gold medal, especially with Vess anchoring. On the other hand, the 4x200 will have little to no effect on team standings, although there is a clear favorite in Rocky Mount (which does not appear on the original performance list, but will be in the meet with a 1:47 seed time). The girls' meet should close with one of the most competitive events of the day, as Weddington, Chapel Hill, and Jacksonville are all just under 4:20 coming in. Marvin Ridge is seeded 4th, and those points could help secure the team title, especially if things don't go as planned in the field events. The best chance for Cardinal Gibbons to win will come with gains in the 1600 and fresh legs in the 3200, but it's definitely a close enough competition to make this meet intriguing. It would take some unusual circumstances for either Southern Guilford or Asheville to move up and challenge for a podium finish.
Cross-town rivalries can be intense, and that becomes even more true when they play out on the state meet level. Weddington and Marvin Ridge are the top two seeds in the 4x800, and it's safe to say that they know each other well. The third seed in the 4x8 is Asheville, and those just happen to be the three teams with serious overall championship aspirations. Asheville and Marvin Ridge also have 4x200 teams, but it's the Cougars that have the advantage (and the top seed) in that race. If you like an exciting overall team competition as well as exciting events, then you should be rooting for the boys' scores to come down to the 4x400, where Marvin Ridge has the top seed and Asheville has the 2nd-best indoor time. This is an unlikely finish, though, because according to the seeds Marvin Ridge has a chance to score 100 points in this meet, and it will be tough for Asheville or Weddington to come close to that. If the Mavericks do pull away, there could be quite a battle for the silver trophy.