Boys XC Preseason Rankings: #5

<p> <span style="font-size: 13.63636302947998px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 boys teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Like teeth in a shark's mouth, Mount Tabor keeps replacing departed seniors with vastly improved younger runners.

 

	Mount Tabor (NC)
	1) Brad Walter		15:48.46	20
	2) Kenny Kneisel		16:02.00	31
	3) Michael Madden		16:49.00	142
	4) Ian Nickel		17:11.87	226
	5) Ryan Armstrong		17:23.70	282
	Average Time: 16:39.01 Total Time: 1:23:15.03 1-5 Split: 1:35.24
	6) Grayson Campanaro		17:47.00	405
	7) Isaac Ingram-Edwards		17:50.55	429

The biggest jumper on either the boys' or girls' list is Mount Tabor, and for a simple reason: we got tired of them greatly exceeding predictions.  There is simply no way the Spartans end up as the 14th-best team in the state, which is what the database predicts for them.  This team has strong returning 3200 results from the spring, owns the 2nd-best track record for improvement, and has an average All-Classes final ranking of 3.7 over the last 3 years (and 5.8 over the last 5).  In 2013, NCRunners predicted them 9th in the preseason, as Coach Cromwell made it a point to mention while on the podium collecting the team's 4A runner-up trophy.  That kind of intensity and passion rubs off on the team, which gives Mount Tabor arguably the best culture of hard work in North Carolina.  4 seniors graduated from the 2013 team, and the 2014 projected roster has 4 more; very few programs can sustain success with that kind of attrition.  Depth could be a big concern with only three sub-17 returners (and 2 under 10 minutes in the spring), but the Spartans have made it a habit to discover a new budding star nearly every fall season.  If they make the same summer leap that they have over each of the last 3 offseasons, count on these guys to be in the mix at the state meet once again.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 14th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 8th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 4th

• 5-Year Improvement Plan: 16.360 (2nd)

• 3-Year Improvement Plan: 23.849 (2nd)