Still no love for Forestview in the 3A Public boys' poll? Five runners under 18 (17:13 to 17:57). They will push Asheville for the 3A West title, though I admit that region is much weaker this year with the realignment. There top eleven runners are all under 19:04 and will all be returning next year too.
I've had several coaches tell me they're missing a few of their top runners b/c of the flu. It will be interesting to see how that plays out at conference meets next week & in the last few weeks of the season. The polls, PRs & predictions are fun, but it may come down to who's missing fewer runners in some of these meets.
Polls are fun, but they don't mean anything. Unless people run over the same course it is hard to compare times on different courses. And Coach Spencer is right some teams may be missing runners. The state meet is really the only way you can compare all the teams because they run the same course. I know some teams might be missing runners in the state but this is really the only way you can compare. All the teams not in the polls should be motivated to prove the polls wrong. The best way to do that is to prove it in the regional AND state. You're right HWPix some regionals are tougher than others. Teams who make it to state from those regions will be motivated to prove in the state that just because they came from a weak region doesn't mean that their TEAM is weak. But I think polls are great because I think it CAUSES discussions which is healthy for the sport.
Polls are just that Polls.... The fact is WHO wind the championships...
I like our team being ranked... but whatever.... I would rather see individual rankings/team rankings based upon times...
But it is always WHO runs WHAT one WHAT day.... on paper anyone can be KING....
Here is to the next few races....
It might be a better reflection of reality to run virtual meets for each of these polls and rank it that way. Most of the schools have their results posted here, so it should work pretty easily. This would be much more valuable than this polling situation, which means very little except for the pre-season prognostication. Also, listing the total time & avg time for the top 5 performers would be very helpful.
Check the rankings listing on the opening page - almost all schools are in there, and you can look everybody up by classification, regional and state level as well.
Do the coaches sometimes miss the mark? Sure. But times without other considerations in XC is a bad measuring stick. Call them short, long, easy, hard... but if you look at times from a course like Cannon School and compare them to somewhere like United Way Unifour... well, there's no comparison. 1:00+ off maybe?
When I vote in the poll, I start with the Milesplit team rankings, but then look at where those times were run & who beat who in head-to-head meets. I also consider how often a team's results are reported. Case in point- Hickory Ridge's girls are ranked 10th in the 3A Midwest region by time but they were once in the top 10 in the Coaches Poll for the entire 3A classification. They have beaten many who are ranked higher than them on the time rankings. The only 2 reported meets from them are Cannon & Concord, both considered to be hard courses. Teal McLean is ranked the 23rd individual 3A girl by time. If you think she won't finish higher than that...
Time is just a starting point in evaluating teams.
For 3A boys regional race, Asheville is certainly the top team as they will go 1-2 in the race. Nobody will beat Asheville unless a couple of their top 5 runners don't run because their 3 and 4 runners are good as well. Irwin should be 2nd in the team race because they have two runners that could 3-4 in the race. They also have a good 3rd who probably will be near the top 10. Forestview is good and most likely will finish 3rd in the team race. The battle is for 4th with Hickory, West Henderson, North Buncombe, Enka, East Henderson and Ashbrook the likely candidates trying for that final state meet spot.
Obviously, the Asheville duo will go one two, but I still think Forestview has a chance as their number 1 has gone 17:13 and didn't even run Wendy's. He is capable of a sub 17. Their 2, 3 & 4 runners all have PRs between 17:27 & 17:31 and their #5 is at 17:57. You do the numbers with Asheville's 3, 4 & 5 and you will see that it is much closer than you think. It will depend a lot on how many other runners come between Asheville's top two and the rest. Either way it should be an exciting meet.
Asheville #4 ran 17:22 at Wendy's and their #3 did not run that day....so that is why I really think they will be too tough for your team in that 3A boys race. Forestview looks good with everybody under 18 and they surely are state meet bound, but Asheville is just loaded up front 1 through 4. And don't forget Irwin as mentioned before, they have a great threesome at the top. If their #4 and #5 run well, they'll be tough to keep out of 2nd. The battle really is for that 4th place team. Hickory is probably the slight favorite but West Henderson is coming on strong and Enka is good and capable. It could be any of those teams and even a couple of others in the mix.
I find it interesting that the Central Davidison Girls team is ranked 5th in the state and Salisbury's girls are unranked considering that Salisbury has beaten Central in every conference meet that they have both competed in. Very interesting!
What is Asheville's #3's best time for the year then? I only show it at 18:07 which would make him their #4 and the previous #4 becomes #3. I have a spreadsheet with all the times posted for the Boys 3A West this season (including the ones posted here but not in the database for virtual meets/rankings) and it spits out a finish of 1, 2, 7, 24 & 28 = 62 (15:45, 15:54, 17:22, 18:07 & 18:16) for Asheville and 5, 10, 11, 16 & 20 (17:13, 17:29, 17:31, 17:46 & 17:57) for Forestview, also equaling a 62, thus my comments about Forestview giving them a go at Regionals. The 17:46 runner for FV ran a 17:27 last year and another non top 5 runner has run a 17:41 before this year, but I'm only counting this season's best times.
This is getting interesting,so when will Forestview and Asheville actually compete against one another?
That you have every race result from the West Region on a spread sheet is impressive. I am predicting either a job as a statistician or a internet stalker. : )
Thanks for bring this to our attention and good luck to you and your teammmates at Forestview.
It's hard to compare times when they don't run on the same course...Asheville's number 3 ran at the Owen Invite and that is a tough course so his 18 min time you might have recorded seems a little slow but it's not for that course. The boy that ran the 17:22 at Wendy's is Asheville's #4 runner, their number 3 guy is about 10 seconds or so ahead of him. I am not from Asheville just have run against them a few times this year and if they run what they are capable of, they should win it all easily. But that's why they run the races cause anything can happen, some teams don't run as well in big meets, pressure mounts, some have an "off" day, etc. Should be fun. You've brought good attention to Forestview and rightfully so, they are a force to reckon with. Good to see a group of boys doing so well and I think you said they will all return next year. Wow.
I agree. It should be a great Regional. Good luck to all.
Just for information. Salisbury's girls team beat the #5 rated team, Central Davidson for the 5th time this year to win the conference championship. Yet Salisbury does not even merit being top 10. And their #4 runner Jenna Bryan is over a minute off her usual time because of being in a very serious automobile accident three and a half weeks ago. Yet she still finished 13th in the conference behind 4 girls she had beaten easily until the accident. Salisbury deserves consideration.
People seem to be looking at rankings and polls way too much. They don't mean much at this point of the season. This website does a great job, but it relies on the conferences and teams posting results. The rankings are based on the times that are available on the site. Salisbury, for example, may be beating the teams ranked but there aren't many times posted for Salisbury. The team entry here shows times from last year (which don't count). Another example is East Wilkes. They have the girl that will likely win the 1A State Championship, but the team will not qualify for the race. They finished 4th at their conference meet and only go 3 deep with good times. West Wilkes has beaten them every race this year by quite a bit, and West hasn't been mentioned at all. However, East Wilkes has been in the top 10 all year. Coaches check out the times on here before voting in the polls. Teams from the west and far east of the state seldom post very much. Get your coaches to post more times to help Ben out more. The only times that truly count are the ones that happen in Regionals to qualify for State, and the last run which happens on equal ground for everyone. Every year about this time, the rankings change dramatically when some runners go to Wendy's and Hagan Stone and PR on fast courses which won't be anything like Tanglewood. Those events are great experience and competition, but the times there are relatively irrelevent when it comes to the State Finals. The times and rankings are great for feeding egos, but many of those egos get taken down a notch or 2 when the athletes run the final event. It happens every year in every final race. However, those PRs may help some of the kids get to college easier, and that makes it a good thing.
No love for watauga boys, congrats to the girls 3rd
Wow, I agree with runner runner completely. Great comments!!!!!!