4A Midwest Girls
Individual
Carmen Alder (Pinecrest) is likely the biggest lock in any regional meet, and it would be an impressive feat for any runner just to finish within sight of her on Saturday if she's anywhere near her best.
Behind her in the rankings is Ainsley Cooper of Reagan, who is joined by teammate Gwen Parks among the top seven in the field. Cooper is a seasoned veteran and is the only senior among the top five runners. She has raced in big races before and should have the edge in a tight race if anyone from the pack hangs on with her. Between Cooper and Parks in the standings is a pack of three West Forsyth girls - Eliza Broce, Bailey Reutinger and Kendall Phillips. All three have broken 19:15 and form a sophomore pack that should define this meet, along with Alder, for years to come. Parks did get in front of Phillips at their conference meet last week, but it wasn't enough to hold off a loaded Titans team.
Emma Kincaid (Grimsley) also comes in with a sub 19:30 time and will look to slingshot in front of the West Forsyth pack seeded just in front of her. Kincaid has run a 19:16 this season, but it is worth noting that she has a PR of 18:16 from her fourth-place finish at the State Meet last year. She's trending in the right direction over her last two meets and could establish herself right at the front of the pack behind Alder.
Team Battle
The girls' battle shouldn't be as close as the guys', as West Forsyth has a fast pack with the smallest 1-5 split in the field. While there is a big gap to their six and seven, that is more a testament to the strength of their top five than anything else, as their six and seven are still projected to finish among the top 30.
Reagan will be looking for revenge after a CPC loss to the Titans but will need a lot of production from their 3-4-5 to have any chance. Their third and fourth runners, Samantha Troup and Jessica Herzog, both have broken 20 in their careers. If they can tap into that for the postseason, the Reagan team does become more dangerous with a low stick like Cooper who is sure to help them as the meets get bigger.
Behind that, Pinecrest and Hickory Ridge are separated by 14 points for the third spot. Pine Crest's 4:05 1-5 split looks alarming at first, but considering Carmen Alder has close to a 1:30 advantage over the second girl in the race, this isn't as much of a problem. Lauren Richards will lead a Hickory Ridge team seeking a spot at the State Meet, and the whole top 4 is under 21 minutes and is within the top 21 in the field as well. Look to these two teams to move up if some of their scorers can have big races for the postseason.
Northwest Guilford has two runners under 20, with both Paris Stankewich and Sydney Partyka projected in the top-15, but the team doesn't currently look like they have the depth to climb too much higher.