Boys XC Preseason Rankings: #13

<p> <span style="font-size: 13.63636302947998px;">NCRunners is counting down the top 25 boys teams heading into the fall season. &nbsp;The full rankings will be released on the first day of official practice: Friday, August 1st. &nbsp;These are subjective rankings (not computer generated); they take into account returning team rankings, returning team averages, team rankings in the 1600 and 3200 from indoor and outdoor track, and a school&#39;s &quot;Improvement Rating.&quot; &nbsp;Improvement Rating is a custom metric developed by researching the improvement in a team&#39;s 5-person average from year to year, in comparison to that same team&#39;s ranking. &nbsp;Improvement Rating numbers and methodology will be released on the weekend of August 2nd.</span></p>

Page has improved to the point where the Pirates are a threat to take the Midwest 4A title in 2014.

 

	Page (NC)
	1) Nolan Cook		16:07.87	34
	2) Drew Lake		16:38.32	112
	3) Levi Ricketts		16:49.90	145
	4) Freddie Marx		16:56.00	162
	5) Ian Shanklin		17:10.06	222
	Average Time: 16:44.43 Total Time: 1:23:42.15 1-5 Split: 1:02.19
	6) Mike Weaver		17:22.28	274
	7) Will Weaver		18:32.17	681

This team is hard to predict, but there is enormous potential.  It is critically important to know the limitations of the metrics you use to rank teams, and Page highlights some of the problems with statistical analysis.  Take the Improvement Rating, for example: this team has made steady improvement over the last 5 years, but the metric is adjusted for the ranking of the team (the idea being that it is harder to improve a highly-ranked team that is already well-trained).  Page was not highly ranked in many of the preceding years, so they don't come up with a strong rating.  Depth is a really big concern, as the Pirates are strong through 6 runners but would have a hard time staying successful through any injury problems.  Their track results are also pretty weak, although Nolan Cook continued to establish himself as an individual force in this state. The Pirates made a big step forward last year, and some of that is talent, but much of their improvement can be attributed to the extra motivation they felt based on Coach Phil Legnetti's battle with cancer.  Thankfully, the Coach "Legs" says that he is recovering well, with good days far outnumbering the bad ones, and looking forward to the upcoming season.  His continued presence is an inspiration to his team, an intangible factor that really can't be measured by the statistics at our disposal.  With two seniors in the top 5 to provide leadership, Page is a top-10 team in 4A with an outside chance to crack the top 5 this year and a real shot at the 4A Midwest title.  On the other hand, with 5 returners back for 2015, Page also has a bright future.  All things considered, it's a good time to be a Pirate.

Important Data:

• 2013 XC Returning Ranking: 12th

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 1600 Ranking: 41st

• 2014 Outdoor Returning Team 3200 Ranking: 57th

• 5-Year Improvement Rating: 4.025 (27th)

• 3-Year Improvement Rating: 3.366 (27th)